Last of a series

THE previous three installments of this series dissected how Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu precipitated the Iran war. On the surface, Netanyahu’s influence over Trump offered a masterful study of the puppeteer’s craft. Yet, at a deeper level, the conflict served as a seminar on how both the marionette and the puppeteer were, in bizarre ways, being managed by a far more adept actor: Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). It was, quite simply, a masterclass in “calculated silence.”

As we conclude this series on the Iran war, it is becoming increasingly clear that we are not just witnessing a military confrontation; we are watching the final resolution of a 45-year struggle for regional supremacy. And the victor isn’t the one who dropped the most bombs — it’s the one who had the most patience.

To fully appreciate the current situation, the antecedent of the Iran war needs to be reviewed in the light of Saudi’s role in it. The relationship between Saudi and Iran is best described as a longstanding rivalry with occasional attempts at détente.

For decades, the two have competed for power and influence in the Middle East, driven by religious differences (Sunni vs Shia); and Saudi asserting its authority as Islam’s center of gravity, being the host of Islam’s two holiest sites, Mecca and Medina. The two countries’ political dynamics and oil politics are often in the opposing regional proxy conflicts in Yemen and Syria, with Iran funding Saudi’s adversaries, the Houthis and Hezbollah.

Iran has, therefore, been the ultimate barrier to Saudi’s regional hegemony in the Middle East. Saudi is the richest country in the region, has the best military money can buy. But more importantly, it has America for a friend with a leader that is corrupt and can be bought. And MBS has the genius, the talent and foresight to mold Trump’s role in his ambitions, as we shall soon see.

The art of the ‘outsourced war’

Today, MBS has executed the most daring geopolitical maneuver of the 21st century: he bought a war without ever having to declare one. He has managed to dismantle his greatest existential threat, Iran, while maintaining the posture of a neutral bystander, a diplomatic broker and a victim of aggression — all at the same time.

This conflict isn’t a new feud; it’s the fallout of a 2019 humiliation. When Iran crippled Saudi’s Abqaiq and Khurais processing facilities and the world stood still, MBS realized a direct war would incinerate his “Vision 2030” dreams and scare off every cent of global capital. So, he changed the game.

He stopped trying to be a traditional ally and started acting like an owner. By bypassing military experts and personally pumping billions into Washington — most notably the $2 billion “risk” handed to Jared Kushner’s fund — MBS didn’t just invest money; he bought influence. He bought a family dynasty!

This wasn’t lobbying; it was a pay-to-play masterstroke. By tethering the US military to Saudi interests through financial leverage, MBS turned a superpower into his personal guarantor. He didn’t need to fight Iran himself — he built a geopolitical trap that forced Washington to do it for him.

Geopolitical gaslighting

MBS executed a masterclass in geopolitical gaslighting, wearing a “neutral mask” while American jets dismantled Iran. Behind closed doors, he was the hawk lobbying for war; publicly, he was the “restrained” leader signaling peace to Tehran. In the Philippines, we call this “doble cara.”

This wasn’t indecision — it was strategic mastery. By remaining officially non-belligerent, he occupied three roles: the architect who pushed for the conflict, the victim absorbing collateral damage, and the peacemaker ready to broker the end of conflict.

By refusing to get his hands dirty, he avoided being cast as a combatant. Instead, he emerged as the indispensable power everyone must rely on to rebuild the Gulf. He didn’t just survive the war; he positioned himself to own the aftermath.

The war for the ‘jugular’

Iran then weaponized the Strait of Hormuz. By choking this 33 kilometer-wide lifeline, Tehran aimed to break Western resolve with $120-$150 per-barrel oil triggering a worldwide political crisis. Yet, the cold math favors Riyadh. (Read my TMT columns parts 1 to 3, March 18, 25 and April 1, 2026.)

The bypass routes built for such a contingency — the Abu Dhabi pipeline to Fujairah, can only handle a fraction of the Hormuz volume. While insufficient, Saudi’s $475 billion reserves and “swing” capacity make them the only stabilizer left. MBS is playing a high-stakes game: absorbing finite infrastructure hits while Iran’s military and economy are systematically dismantled.

Once the dust settles, Iran vanishes. Saudi Arabia won’t merely dominate oil; they will be the sole guarantor of regional security by enduring the short-term chaos. When global powers beg for order, MBS remains the gatekeeper.

Cold-blooded intramural rivalry

MBS didn’t just target enemies; he neutralized his neighbors. By allowing the conflict to boil over, he watched the UAE’s reputation for invulnerability go up in smoke. Iranian missile strikes proved Dubai’s “safe haven” was an illusion. When the dust settles, investors won’t seek flashy skyscrapers — they’ll seek the strongest power left. With the Emirates tarnished and Iran ruined, MBS has cleared the field to become the Gulf’s undisputed hegemon. It is a hostile takeover.

Soft power and the battle for the Islamic soul

In this final, most calculated layer of the conflict, the battlefield shifted from the economic to the sacred. The “battle for the Islamic soul” reached fever pitch when Iranian missile shrapnel rained down on Jerusalem, dangerously close to the Al-Aqsa Mosque. For MBS, this was a geopolitical windfall.

For decades, Tehran has marketed itself as the revolutionary defender of Islam’s holy sites. However, the optics of Iranian fire threatening the third holiest site shattered that narrative instantly. While Iran appeared reckless, Saudi Arabia — the guardian of Mecca and Medina — maintained its mask as the “restrained adult.”

MBS didn’t need a propaganda campaign; the images of Iranian missiles over Al-Aqsa did the work for him. By staying silent while its rival endangered the faith’s heritage, Riyadh secured a decisive symbolic victory. This was the ultimate theological checkmate, positioning Saudi Arabia as the only legitimate leader of the Islamic world while Tehran’s credibility crumbled in the soot of its own missiles.

The inevitable conclusion

As the ceasefire nears, the Middle East is fundamentally re-engineered. Iran is broken, its proxies are toothless, and a massive power vacuum has opened that only the Saudi capital can fill.

MBS has achieved total rehabilitation. The former pariah — in the wake of the Khashoggi incident — is now the indispensable statesman, wielding a $930 billion checkbook to rebuild the region. He is betting that the world’s hunger for stability will forget how this fire started — positioning himself as the architect of the fire department rather than the arsonist.

This wasn’t just a war; it was a coronation. By letting others pull the trigger while maintaining “restraint,” MBS proved that patience is deadlier than missiles. The gap between him and his rivals is now an unbridgeable chasm.