SHORTLY after Ferdinand "Makoy" declared martial law in 1972, he purged the bureaucracy, targeting government agencies which he deemed to be corrupt, incompetent and ineffective, particularly the Bureaus of Internal Revenue (BIR) and Customs (BOC). Makoy was in his second term, having been elected in 1965 and 1969.

BBM may have taken a page out of Dad's playbook. One popular speculation was that his Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas, a well-financed heterogeneous collection of comedians, actors, entertainers, sprinkled with hard-nosed traditional politicians, failed to deliver. Thus, the revamp. This could be one good alibi. The other is that this election was a referendum on BBM's tutelage the past three years. This is debatable. The Alyansa never did reflect the government's notions of governance. Each candidate comes from diverse politically devious camps hastily stitched from fabrics of diverse political ideologies — with some bankrupt of the same, recruited solely for their popularity and electability.

No platforms or programs of government were proposed and defended except for motherhood statements. There were no substantial debates of consequence. This midterm election was a penultimate contest between two erstwhile allied political dynasties, the Marcoses and the Dutertes, and, as in any Philippine elections, simply a clash of personalities and brands; preliminary gambits and a cacophonous prologue to the more lethal presidential elections in the 2028 election cycle.

The issues at hand have none of the economic programs or policy directions but traditional politics defined and imbued with emotional underpinnings: the Deegong's surreptitious rendition to The Hague and the impending ICC trial; the impeachment of VP Sara eliminating her from the political calculus; leading towards the possible expansion and perhaps perpetuation of the Marcos dynasty.

Thus, it's too pat for BBM to revamp the current Cabinet as punishment for this perceived midterm election debacle. In fact, half of the incoming senators, plus more than 80 percent of the lower house members who voted to impeach BBM's archrival, VP Sara, were reelected. BBM's move must be part of a strategy. But what?

Changing the face of the issue

This midterm election may have telegraphed to the public that BBM has been wounded badly though not mortally. There is this ubiquitous perception of failure and weakness. But he has three more years to govern and has full control of the levers of political power in government. This power is immense. Three years is time enough to repair his image and recuperate, demonstrating he is no lame duck.

The Cabinet revamp therefore was a necessary palabas — a moro-moro. BBM is simply executing a misdirection, a sleight of hand creating illusions, deceiving audiences. This is an in-your-face declaration that "I am in control. Anong say mo!" We may be looking at a different BBM today. Thus, parsing the acts of his father in 1972 may give us some hints on his current motivations and the kind of leadership he may want to portray.

Ferdinand Makoy's decisive acts

In retrospect, Ferdinand Makoy in 1972 was laying the ground for the extension of his term beyond 1973. Prior to this, he co-opted the leadership of the Armed Forces (AFP) and the Philippine Constabulary (PC), a military-type police force that maintained peace and order internally, mostly in the provinces.

He seized control with surgical precision. The martial law declaration allowed him to suspend the 1935 Constitution, effectively eliminating legal protections for civil servants and political opponents, removing individuals from their positions without due process. The two houses of the Philippine legislature were physically padlocked; the senators and congressmen, mostly political opponents and rivals, were removed and their leadership arrested.

In the first few hours of the martial rule declaration, Makoy closed all newspaper publications, controlling the media, restricting the flow of information, which helped suppress dissent and fashioned a narrative that supported his regime. It caught the public unaware.  

Makoy centralized authority within the executive branch, diminishing the power of local governments and other branches of government. This allowed him to exert greater control over the bureaucracy. Marcos established new government agencies and bodies, installing subordinates loyal to him, further reinforcing his control over the bureaucracy and ensuring that key functions were handled by trusted individuals.

Subsequently, through a series of actions and policies implemented after the martial law declaration on Sept. 21, 1972, only then did he proceed to purge the bureaucracy. 

BBM'S post-election moves

BBM's actions on May 22, 2025, weren't as grand or dramatic. This wasn't a recalibration or a "bold reset." This was an "inday-inday" limp-wrist act imploring his Cabinet and those heading key government agencies and those who addressed themselves as "secretary," fancying themselves with "Cabinet rank" to tender their "courtesy resignations." This could be the weak BBM's way of allowing his incompetent, corrupt but loyal cronies to save face, accepting their courtesies — mixing them with the good ones.

True enough, on the following day, he retained Executive Secretary Bersamin along with the whole economic team. What a start to his bold reset! The coming days should see the other nonperforming Cabinet members mixed in with the undesirables getting the boot. Rumors are circulating that the first lady may just have to let go of her favorite confreres, insert her own substitutes, and do away with her bête noires — the remnants of the Duterte loyalists. Secretary Guevarra and others may be on the dock.
From the looks of it, BBM may have a seed of a strategy. Depending on the profile of the incoming Cabinet, various scenarios can be deduced. If the same tired old are reinstated, then my first conjecture above may be en point. BBM and the first lady may just want to get rid of the undesirables — in a nice way; for example, booting out Anton Floirendo for the failure of Alyansa and the corruption and anomalies in the BARMM, among others.

But if BBM begins to decapitate the BIR and the BOC, and goes deep attempting to eliminate corruption, intimidate and strike fear in the bureaucracy, then he may be cutting a different but welcome path. But does he really have the balls for it?Advertisement

In 1972/1973 his father culled the bureaucracy of misfits and proceeded to shame them, publishing their names in the press and media. In some ways, Makoy did strike fear in the corrupt bureaucracy, until he himself created and introduced a deadlier superstructure for corruption and depravity — crony capitalism and kleptocracy. 

BBM'S ongoing narrative

BBM can adopt his father's template departing from a type of governance totally different from his personality and style of decision-making. This could wrest the momentum away from the recent perceived victory of the Duterte-backed opposition.

The next few days will give us a better grasp of the raison d'etre of this Cabinet revamp. It is not so much whether the incompetents and the corrupt are replaced. This is not even a recalibration. Methinks that BBM refuses to see that he may be the problem after all. And the whole exercise is to demonstrate that he is not a lame duck. That he still calls the shots!

IN my column shortly before the elections, I reprinted a quote attributed to former senator Frank Drilon (which he has denied): "The best evidence of our political system's desperate bankruptcy is the proliferation of actors, actresses and comedians dominating our legislative and executive branches, including the local government units." (Two elections ... MT, May 7, 2025)

Surprisingly, the voters must have heeded his advice as those he named — popular actors, comedians and TV personalities lost. Foremost among these was Sen. Bong Revilla, who lost his seat. Along with radio-TV personality Ben Tulfo, "Pambansang Kamao" Manny Pacquiao and TV host comedian Willie Revillame, who all figured as shoo-ins in pre-election surveys by SWS, Pulse Asia and OCTA — were all eliminated. This says something for the accuracy, credibility and trustworthiness of these surveys. Popular actor Philip Salvador never made good in the surveys. But Sen. Lito Lapid, a Senate nonperformer but an action star, was a tailender — "nakalusot," as they say in the vernacular.

Marcos' strategic folly

There were many surprises to this midterm election. But perhaps the most glaring is the foolish strategy of the Marcos-Araneta-Romualdez camp in timing the exile and incarceration of former president Duterte at The Hague on March 11, 2025, two months prior to the elections. The Alyansa senatorial slate at the beginning of March was riding high with 10 names in the win column with Erwin Tulfo consistently occupying the top slot; only Bong Go and Bato Dela Rosa from the opposition made it to the winning list, in the 9th to 12th slots. It is a measure of President Duterte's residual political influence, and the sympathy votes he provoked that resurrected the lackluster and anemic PDP-Laban candidates. VP Sara's political weight was likewise evident in singling out Camille Villar and Imee Marcos from the Alyansa, effectively adopting them into the fold of the PDP-Laban.

The Iglesia Ni Cristo's (INC) last-minute support for the "sure winners" finalized the opposition's Bong Go, Bato de la Rosa, Marcoleta, Camille Villar and Imee Marcos to the win column; except for Bong Revilla who got away from his plunder case but has not reportedly returned the P124.5 million he kept. Even the touted INC endorsement couldn't carry the miscreant across the winning column.

Reemergence of VP Sara

VP Sara could be the biggest beneficiary of this midterm with her impeachment now practically dead with Senate allies holding more than one-third of the votes needed to avert a guilty verdict. But recently, with her usual arrogance, she said she wanted the trial to proceed as she wanted a "bloodbath."

Sara has shown her clout with her congressional quadcom tormentors; Stella Quimbo, Dan Fernandez, Benny Abante (both involved in quadcom scandal), France Castro, Mark Go and "Caraps" Paduano, losing their own bid for reelection, leaving The House speaker's team in disarray. Romualdez may soon be replaced as speaker — if BBM had the balls. In his defense, Romualdez, through his spokesman deputy speaker David Suarez, declared that about 86 percent of the 215 congressmen who signed the impeachment complaint against the vice president have been reelected — deriding VP Sara's political weight.

The feud between the two political dynasties, Marcos and Duterte, may have precipitated an unintended consequence, with mostly the young voters disgusted with the same old tradpol practiced by these two factions. This change in voting profile attributed to the changing demographics may have emboldened the decimated remnants of the old "yellow army" back in the equation. This propelled Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan to the Senate, former vice president Leni to the mayoralty of Naga and stalwarts Leila de Lima and Chel Diokno to House as party-list representatives to torment the Dutertes. The "pinklawans" are back.

But these singular elections in no way ushered in a certain maturity in the Filipino voters. One swallow does not a summer make. Money still flowed, particularly from the stolen coffers of the 2025 budget — used by the speaker's minions in the scandalous "Ayuda AKAP" program. The politics of personalities still dominate. Qualified candidates, among them Heidi Mendoza, Luke Espiritu, and Sonny Matula, etc. under the present dysfunctional system could never make it.

Undetermined results

Overall, our system is still entrenched deep in tradpol practices where dynasties and their oligarchic allies reign supreme, although results were mixed. The Cebu Garcias, descendants of Pablo Garcia who founded the dynasty upon the political carcasses of the Osmeñas and Cuencos, were obliterated. Yet in Davao City the ascendant Duterte children saw the complete annihilation of the once formidable Castillo-Nograles-Garcia clan, trouncing the late founder Nonoy Garcia's second district. VP Sara revealed that this decades-long alliance unraveled earlier in January 2005 by a "snub" on the Dutertes, forcing the latter to field the candidacy of Omar, a complete unknown but a Duterte grandson.

But in the five Davao provinces BBM's PFP held sway in most governorships. Congressman John Cagas, the only Davao region lawmaker to have voted to impeach VP Sara, got a fresh mandate.

The blame game has started. BBM's special assistant Anton Lagdameo, scion of the once formidable Floirendo-Del Rosario-Garcia clan, could get the axe for mishandling the campaign in BARMM. Except for Lapid, none of Alyansa's 10 senatorial bets won. Also, "Teng" Mangudadatu has accused Lagdameo of practically "pocketing" billions of BARMM funds.

Systemic reforms

This state of affairs will go unchanged unless the underlying systemic dysfunctions protected by the 1987 Constitution are revised. There is a slim chance for constitutional revisions as the three guardians of the Cory Constitution, Bam Aquino, Kiko Pangilinan and Risa Hontiveros will have their say against Robin Padilla, the Senate committee on constitutional revisions chairman who surprisingly is turning out to be the champion of a shift from a unitary-presidential to a federal-parliamentary system. These are advocates of the Centrist Democrats and the original PDP-Laban founded by the late senator Nene Pimentel — captured and perverted by the Deegong in 2016.

With the remnants of the Cory "yellows" confronting the Dutertes and the Marcos-Araneta-Romualdez factions, a tectonic shift in the political firmament may occur once the state of the nation is defined by the lame duck BBM followed by the ICC trial of the Deegong. The second half of this year will be an opportunity for the emerging opposition in the highest echelons of Philippine political leadership to strengthen itself as a third force.

Since traditional politics still rule, we will be drawn to speculations on who will be the next president rather than how the myriad problems of the country are to be solved; poverty alleviation, the disparity between the haves and the have-nots, injustices, and the perversion of the rule of law will be relegated to the backburner. Evidence surfacing on the ICC trial could spell the Deegong's guilt or innocence, a game changer, impacting on his daughter's political fortunes.

Peripheral to the dispensing of justice, this ICC trial could be a telenovela dear to Filipinos, with episodes lasting for years which the Deegong does not have. And his demise, Inshalla, would be the ultimate roll of the dice — for him, for the Marcos-Araneta-Romualdez faction and for the fortunes of his daughter. But nothing towards the upliftment of the Filipino.

THE recent conclave elected an unknown to lead 1.4 billion Catholics. But the drama of the elections will remain locked within the muted confines of the Sistine Chapel that has been a silent witness and keeper of countless secrets for millennia. Since Pope Francis died, the world speculated on a number of Church dignitaries as papabile. Among the favorites were Luis Antonio Cardinal Tagle, Archbishop Emeritus of Manila; Matteo Maria Cardinal Zuppi, Archbishop of Bologna; Pietro Cardinal Parolin, the Vatican's Secretary of State; Pierbattista Cardinal Pizabella, Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem; and Peter Cardinal Erdo, Archbishop of Budapest. But the Holy Spirit who guided the cardinal-electors had a different favorite keeping His choice en pectore, revealing to the world only through a white smoke, an American, Robert Cardinal Prevost, who will occupy the throne of St. Peter as Leo XIV. "Qui in conclave ut papa intrat, ut cardinalis exiit (He who enters the conclave as a pope, leaves it as a cardinal)." Truly, the Christian God works in mysterious ways.

Beijing's not so secret plan

As secret as the proceedings of the conclave were, those of China's Politburo were not. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) document, principally authored by Xi Jinping himself entitled "A Resolution — to win the initiative in historic upheaval through decisive struggle" is a master plan to counter President Trump's unilateral and irresponsible imposition of his tariffs. For Beijing, this is no longer a trade dispute resolvable through the "art of the deal." These provocations are a casus belli. The CCP's secret document is therefore an assertion of a full-blown trade war encompassing economic, diplomatic and military domains, in the classic Chinese discernment of "wei ji" — crisis as opportunity.

This classified document shared with the political leadership and subsequently leaked to Yuen Hongping, a former CCP insider now a dissident professor in exile was perhaps the Chinese inscrutable way of reaching out to Trump, a simpleton, being forewarned before he does another precipitate act.

The tariff onslaught caught the Chinese off guard, but their response was nonetheless quick. This document is Xi Jinping's playbook with a full spectrum of sweeping strategies for confrontation with America. The following are excerpts from Chinese Australian journalist Cheng Lei and Heng He, a China analyst and commentator. Briefly the document outlined five strategies to counter any eventualities.

Five strategies

Taking advantage of US allies' anger and frustration, Beijing fashioned its first strategy to build a united front, targeting Germany, France, UK, Canada, Japan, South Korea and Australia. And if Trump refuses to back down, India and Vietnam will be further enticed. This coalition of aggrieved countries could isolate the US pushing it out of the globalization process and unseat it from economic dominance.

The second strategy is an accelerating two-step "financial war plans." First is internal, targeting the Chinese political elite's foreign assets; keeping track of foreign deposits held by party officials and executives working for state-owned enterprises (SOEs) for amounts exceeding $200,000. Trump's insistence on his tariffs will result in a decoupling, a breakdown of relationship with China, triggering a massive transference of funds from the US back to China or to any neutral country. Non-compliance is a treasonable act to be met with severe punishment.

The second step is directed externally towards the destabilization of the US financial markets which could trigger a meltdown deadlier than that of the 2008 financial crisis. Chinese officials on short notice are to dump $1 trillion in US treasury bonds and simultaneously short $2 trillion in US corporate equity and debt securities. Japan, which has bigger holdings than China, could be drawn into this financial morass precipitating a domino effect collapsing US markets. This could result in a world economic recession or worse.

The third strategy are domestic measures for a prolonged economic war strengthening China and its citizens' economic self-reliance, a drastic domestic market circulation system — euphemism for government rationing of food, meat, grain, vegetables, etc. China, an authoritarian government, has a better chance of successfully inflicting severe hardship on its citizenry compared to the US or democratic regimes — where individual rights and privileges are paramount and street protests could be disastrous. Rationing is the CCP's secret weapon as it did after the Cultural Revolution in the 1970s when the economy was decimated; not to mention the great famine under the Great Leader Mao.

The fourth strategy calls for the deepening of partnership with Iran, Russia and North Korea, natural foes of democratic America and applying greater influence in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Thailand, countries already susceptible to Marxist ideals on the concept of "economic power shaping political power." And more importantly driving a wedge between NATO countries and allies. Particular emphasis would be given to the seething anger over Trump's disrespect of Canada, inviting it to be a subordinate state to the US. This classic "divide and weaken" relationship with America's old allies will eventually undermine US global leadership.

The first island chain countries that have been preventing China from extending its influence toward the Eastern Pacific can be subverted. The CCP must work to weaken US traditional relations with Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, eroding and isolating America, breaking its status as global policeman, ending its 80-year post-war dominance.

The last strategy involves Taiwan where confrontation becomes inevitable if the economic war intensifies. Xi is convinced he has geography on his side giving him the home court advantage, carefully choosing the timing while the US is putting out fires everywhere. Secret documents call for Xi's full implementation of his strategic vision, preparing for a military showdown with the US in the Taiwan Strait.

In this secret document, this "new type of conventional war is fought under a full spectrum information warfare backed by a credible nuclear deterrent." In the likelihood that the US intervenes China with its superior and more numerous missiles and growing military might, can destroy military bases in Japan, South Korea (with ally North Korea), the Philippines and Guam. US forces are expected to retreat east to Hawaii, effectively reducing the US to a regional power.

The CCP's final declaration in that secret document states: "Only by bravely facing the storm can we achieve great victory," concluding that by defeating Trump's total offensive beginning with the tariff war, the CCP's vision of a community of common destiny will become the global path forward.

Reaction of majority CCP leadership

Professor Yuen said, "The CCP hopes that the resolution would stabilize internal moral order after the shock of Trump's tariff war." But the result instead was the opposite.

This document sparked a wave of extreme anxiety throughout the CCP bureaucracy. Imagine those officials with children and assets in the US who must now repatriate to China. This rule affects 80 to 90 percent of the officials. Most of them have assets abroad. This has turned many of them against Xi's leadership.

THIS month, we face two elections. The conclave in Rome where the leadership of the 1.4 billion Catholics in the world is decided upon by 133 electors and where all Catholics have no influence at all in the outcome; and the Philippine midterm elections, where the political leadership is voted upon by the millions of Filipinos, yet the outcome has long been determined by our dysfunctional governance system and the aberrant electoral process. To many Filipino Catholics, comparing the conclave to the midterm elections could be blasphemous. They could be wrong.

Conclave

A conclave is held only when a pope dies or abdicates. Convened to choose a successor, the electors are the cardinals, highly educated and experienced in the Church bureaucracy, having attained the highest ranks in their respective dioceses. They start as ordinary priests and go up the ranks as bishops and archbishops to princes of the Church. If elected in a conclave, he attains the highest rank of Bishop of Rome, Vicar of Christ on earth, successor to St. Peter.

Currently there are 252 cardinals but only 133 qualified electors. Those 80 years old and above are proscribed by the Church apostolic constitution. To be elected pope, the papabile needs two-thirds supermajority of 89 votes.

As in many Catholic Church traditions, the conclave has for millennia been steeped in mystery and the arcana of obscure protocols. The ancient ways are shrouded in the mist of time, impenetrable but for some rare instances. Church history is replete with leakages from these consistories providing morsels of compelling stories down the centuries.

As in any assemblage that anoints the most powerful from among themselves, conclaves are not entirely exempt from the exigencies of politics, bargaining, negotiations, and campaigning. In the Catholic faith, the Holy Spirit enlightens the cardinal-electors in their solemn duty but may be cognizant of the unholy political maneuverings and intrigues of the cardinals — who after all are only human, and exclusively male.

A case in point is the first conclave held in the Sistine Chapel in 1492. Cardinal Rodrigo Borgia, nephew of Pope Calixtus III was elected Pope Alexander VI. He bribed and bought the votes with promise of appointments to lucrative positions in the bureaucracy and the Church hierarchy. In 1590 King Philip II of Spain, the most powerful man in Europe, then wanted his own pope. In that conclave, he listed seven cardinals he could accept as pope and another list of 30 he wished to veto (yes, powerful Catholic monarchs had the right of royal veto then — jus exclusivae). The conclave did as he wanted. He got his Pope, Urban VIII who reigned for 12 days. (Wikipedia).

Admittedly excesses plague subsequent conclaves and scandals erupt intermittently to the present day but the Church has managed to impose corrective measures resulting in the election of God's good men, spiritual leaders influencing the directions of the Church, its teachings, and priorities. These are men of moral authority with views and voices spanning secular concerns on global issues on poverty, human rights, climate change and social justice. Post-war popes continue to shape cultural conversations and influence societal norms, not just among Catholics but in broader society — including other faiths.

PH midterm elections — out with the old

Contrast this with our election exercises since decades past when we discontinued electing serious leaders and patriotic politicians of vision. I quote a social media post attributed to former senator Franklin Drilon on the state of Philippine politics. He denied the quote, but the portrayals are valid just the same and probably the reason why it went viral.

"The best evidence of our political system's desperate bankruptcy is the proliferation of actors, actresses and comedians dominating our legislative and executive branches, including the local government units.

"Willy Revillame is a good man. He has helped a lot of people, including the women that he loved. But that doesn't make him prepared for the work of a senator. Philip Salvador is a fine actor. He made many people happy, including Kris Aquino, whom he gifted with a son. But such credentials are not what are needed in the Senate. Lito Lapid is an excellent actor, but he hasn't performed enough in the Philippine Senate. By insisting to remain in the Senate, he effectively eased out the more qualified, the more competent candidates.

"...Bong Revilla...has made politics his family business with his wife and sons all serving the government. Manny Pacquiao is the richest politician, next to the Villars. Of course, he deserves his wealth because he earned all of it. But the fact that he is a world champion in eight different boxing categories doesn't make him prepared as a legislator. Tito Sotto has been a good public servant, but he has served enough and at his age, he should give way to the younger, more dynamic and more progressive legislators. Erwin Tulfo should clarify his citizenship and explain to the people why the Commission on Appointments refused to confirm his appointment as DSWD secretary. Ben Tulfo should stay away from the Senate and should instead leave Raffy Tulfo alone there."

Correcting a defective system

More disturbing are the current reelectionists who during the Gordon Senate blue ribbon committee hearings refused to sign the draft panel report on the anomalies hounding the multibillion-peso Covid-19 contracts of the Duterte government. The multi-billion corruption and plunder were executed at a time of the country's greatest tragedy. They want your votes again: Lito Lapid, Pia Cayetano, Bong Go, Bong Revilla, Francis Tolentino and Imee Marcos.

I will not discuss the qualifications of the rest. I leave that to the individual voter to discern that correcting the systemic dysfunctions of our governance are of primordial importance (www.cdpi.asia). I refer to the systemic defects that have plagued our governance:

– Political patronage is deeply embedded in the political system where public officials prioritize personal gain over the public good and in the process fosters corruption, inequalities, weak institutions, erosion of democratic values and the distortion of the rule of law.

– Political dynasties proliferate, concentrating power in the hands of a few families, limiting political diversity, perpetuating a cycle of inequality and disenfranchisement. And in the Philippine context, political dynasties have married their interest with that of the oligarchy, blurring the lines between economic and political power accumulation.

– The unitary-presidential system of government as practiced in the country is the embryo upon which patronage politics is nurtured, and when paired with our electoral processes, it becomes the overarching environment upon which political patronage incubates.

These systemic anomalies interact resulting in bad governance reinforced by economic provisions in our 1987 Constitution that impede the influx of foreign direct investments (FDIs) which are the lifeblood of economic growth. We have been pushing for political reforms fruitlessly through constitutional revisions since President Cory's time.

Only a few senatorial candidates understand these magnitudes. Knowing their track records, if elected, they will work towards the revision of the 1987 Constitution: Norberto Gonzales, Raul Lambino and Sonny Matula. For what it's worth, we must vote for them.