First of 3 parts

SEVERAL interpretations are going around the internet of that Feb. 28, 2025, White House press conference involving Trump and Zelenskyy. From where one sits, the protagonists are seen in a different light. This first column of three parts paints Trump as seen by many — subjective, at best, as the performance of a despicable and uncouth host, with Zelenskyy absorbing the abuse.

The presscon was initially to announce the Trump/Zelenskyy bilateral agreement on US investment in Ukraine's minerals and other valuable resources. Roughly, the deal was for Ukraine to pay off the US for the financial aid and weapons infused during the war. Trump wants $500 billion worth of Ukrainian minerals as compensation. Zelenskyy claims that US military aid has totaled nowhere close to $500 billion.

Zelenskyy offers Ukraine's strategic resources in exchange for continued military support and security guarantees. Trump's transactional approach to international diplomacy was at his extortionate best. Sign up or he walks out.

Press conference — wrong format

From the outset, Trump and Zelenskyy were already in disagreement on translating the meeting's agenda. The minerals deal was the opening gambit for peace negotiations. But this was the wrong forum open to the international press, with the fine print still unresolved.

Trump was to showcase this meeting as his triumphant start to put an end to the Ukraine-Russia war — an election promise. Zelenskyy, the subordinate client, was to play a crucial albeit a supporting role.

To recall, Trump disparaged Zelenskyy as an "... unelected dictator... he should have stopped the war and never started it." A total prevarication, perhaps as a gesture to his buddy Putin, who must have been gleeful at Trump's historical revisionism.

Zelenskyy with the world's eyes on him went off-script and played to his audience for continued US and NATO support to stop Putin and have his troops withdrawn, forthwith; in effect prolonging the war. With his customary military fatigues at the oval office and once the rockstar of the Democrats, he tried to use the same playbook with the MAGA crowd. It didn't work. Trump stopped him in his tracks.

Vance interjected, echoing his mob-boss, berating a caporegime for not having ever said thank you once — a mafia-like fixation on obeisance. From there, the presscon went downhill fast. Social and mass media have gone to town muddling the more substantive part of what was perceived to be a start of negotiations to end the war.

Roots of Ukraine-Russian war

I have written extensively on this war since March of 2022 depicting its genesis. We were unequivocal in asserting that Russia's invasion in 2022 was the sum total of NATO's and America's relentless encroachment over the years that included the CIA-sponsored Euromaidan Revolution in 2013 resulting in a regime change in Ukraine, which in turn gave Putin the alibi to annex Ukraine's southern peninsula of Crimea in 2014 and recognize the Russian-sponsored separatist states of Donetsk and Luhansk in the southeast, collectively known as the Donbas region.

The Ukraine war should not have happened. But the West, particularly the neocons in D.C., propagated the fiction that Putin is an imperialist bent on reviving the old USSR. This was really just conjecture. Putin came to power only in 2000 a decade after the Cold War ended. It took another two decades for the Ukraine crisis to erupt in 2014 induced by NATO intrusion into the former Warsaw Pact countries, enticing them into NATO memberships shortly after the USSR collapsed.

A predominantly Christian Orthodox non-Islamic country, Ukraine was one of the 15 constituent republics of the Soviet Union from its 1922 founding until its dissolution in 1991; whereupon it reverted back to a status as an independent republic. It was the biggest and the most populous after Russia itself and the USSR's westernmost border. Here the complications begin as it played footsies with the archenemy of Russia — the US-led NATO. NATO's overture to Ukraine after the USSR's collapse is tantamount to providing a casus belli for Putin's acts.

Current status and a possible exit

After three years of war, all sides are exhausted. All want out, looking at diplomacy to end the war. One possible scenario is proposed by Victor Davis Hanson described in his webpage as "an American classicist, a military historian, and conservative political commentator on modern and ancient warfare and contemporary politics for the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, National Review and the Washington Times."

Hanson's intriguing take is that this is the closest that the three protagonists have arrived at ending the war with this minerals agreement. The real issue at hand is separating Russia now from Ukraine and the US participation. The relevant question is how far Putin can be pushed back from his current position in the occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya oblasts.

That's why this minerals agreement was so innovative because most of the key deposits are along this disputed area where Europeans and Americans can come in and have their mining concessions and personnel on the ground. These are not American "boots on the ground" that Zelenskyy salivates for but will have the same deterrent effect as security guarantees. Putin will not go in there and kill Americans or disrupt mining operations. A prosperous mining business is advantageous for all sides. For this to be acceptable to all parties, these are the "sine qua nons":

One, Ukraine can't be a NATO member, ever. Trump himself does not want this. Even Europe doesn't want Ukraine in NATO. Ukraine by then will be better armed, better militarily trained than any of the 32 countries in NATO. And Putin knows this.

On Zelenskyy's part, he must understand that he is a subordinate and that the US is key to his survival and has "all the cards" as intimated by Trump.

Two, nobody ever said that Ukraine will be helped militarily by NATO to take back Donbas or Crimea. No American president will give Ukraine the military wherewithal to reclaim these occupied territories. Putin knows this too.

Three, Trump needs to persuade his buddy to agree to go back as close as possible to where Putin launched his Feb. 22, 2022, invasion. This could be established as a Demilitarized Zone (DMZ).

Not only can Putin get out from this war of attrition but can brag that he has legitimized and institutionalized the acquisition of Donbas, the oblasts and Crimea. America and NATO can lift the economic sanctions and invite Russia to reenter the family of nations.

And these should be the negotiating parameters. Zelenskyy does not have a choice. His main sponsor plays by his own rules and is a bully! Cutting a beneficial deal on the minerals concessions creates a de facto commercial "trip wire" along the DMZ. This could be the basis for a lasting peace.

But this is just one side of the ramifications of the Trump-Zelenskyy reality TV spat. Part 2 next week is another façade of the bigger picture — where in the end Trump with his "Art of the Deal" could really pull this off.

The Senate President crowed yesterday that the party he nominally coheads, PDP-Laban, has a “pleasant problem” — too many potential senatorial candidates. Koko Pimentel’s estimate is they have up to 20 possible choices for the 12-person slate for the 2019 senatorial race. But his list includes the five administration-affiliated senatorial incumbents up for reelection next year. This is a group that has made noises that, much as it prefers to remain in the administration camp, it is unhappy with the way PDP-Laban has been designating its local leaders and candidates, and therefore prefers to strike out on its own, perhaps in alliance with the other administration (regional) party, Hugpong ng Pagbabago, headed by the President’s daughter and current Davao City mayor, Sara Duterte.

Setting aside, then, the five-person “Force,” the administration-oriented but not PDP-friendly reelectionists (Nancy Binay, Sonny Angara, Cynthia Villar, Grace Poe, and JV Ejercito), what Koko’s crowing over is a mixed bag. Some of them have been floated by Speaker Pantaleon Alvarez (with whom Mayor Duterte clashed in recent months): six representatives (Gloria Macapagal Arroyo who is in her last term in the House of Representatives; Albee Benitez, Karlo Nograles, Rey Umali, Geraldine Roman, and Zajid Mangudadatu), three Cabinet members (Bong Go, Harry Roque, and Francis Tolentino), and two other officials (Mocha Uson and Ronald dela Rosa), which still only adds up to 11 possible candidates (who are the missing three?).

Of all of these, the “Force” reelectionists are only fair-weather allies of the present dispensation; their setting themselves apart is about much more than the mess PDP-Laban made in, say, San Juan where support for the Zamoras makes it extremely unattractive for JV Ejercito to consider being in the same slate. Their cohesion is about thinking ahead: Creating the nucleus for the main coalition to beat in the 2022 presidential election. The contingent of congressmen and congresswomen who could become candidates for the Senate, however, seems more a means to kick the Speaker’s rivals upstairs (at least in the case of Benitez and Arroyo) and pad the candidates’ list with token but sacrificial candidates, a similar situation to the executive officials being mentioned as possible candidates (of the executive officials, only Go seems viable, but making him run would deprive the President of the man who actually runs the executive department, and would be a clear signal that the administration is shifting to a post-term protection attitude instead of the more ambitious system-change mode it’s been on, so far).

Vice President Leni Robredo has been more circumspect, saying she’s not sure the Liberal Party can even muster a full slate. The party chair, Kiko Pangilinan, denied that a list circulating online (incumbent Bam Aquino, former senators Mar Roxas, Jun Magsaysay, TG Guingona, current and former representatives Jose Christopher Belmonte, Kaka Bag-ao, Edcel Lagman, Raul Daza, Gary Alejano and Erin Tañada, former governor Eddie Panlilio and Cebu City Mayor Tomas Osmeña) had any basis in fact.

What both lists have in common is they could be surveys-on-the-cheap, trial balloons to get the public pulse. Until the 17th Congress reconvenes briefly from May 14 to June 1 for the tail end of its second regular session (only to adjourn sine die until the third regular session begins on July 23), it has nothing much to do. Except, that is, for the barangay elections in May, after a last-ditch effort by the House to postpone them yet again to October failed.

Names can be floated but the real signal will come in July, when the President mounts the rostrum and calls for the big push for a new constitution—or not. Connected to this would be whether the Supreme Court disposes of its own chief, which would spare the Senate—and thus, free up the legislative calendar—to consider Charter change instead of an impeachment trial. In the meantime, what congressmen do seem abuzz over is an unrefusable invitation to the Palace tomorrow — to mark Arroyo’s birthday. An event possibly pregnant with meaning.

“Then I fall to my knees, shake a rattle at the skies and I’m afraid that I’ll be taken, abandoned, forsaken in her cold coffee eyes.” – A quote from the song, “She moves on” by Paul Simon, singer/songwriter

THE recent tremors affecting the central provinces of Mindanao caused by a series of seismic waves radiating to the northern and southern parts of the island, were like nature shaking a rattle, emitting sharp sounds and unnerving motions from the underground, both frightening and bewildering as to the intensity and confusion they generated.

The successive earthquakes and aftershocks were rattling the nerves not only of residents close to the epicenter but also those living along the active fault planes who were not used to strong earth movements. Some reported dizziness, anxiety, depression and other post-traumatic stress symptoms after experiencing continuous shaking and periodic vibrations.

As this article was written, less frequent but perceptible tremors were felt on the affected areas although everyone is reportedly bracing for aftershocks which many hope and pray, would not turn out to be the dreaded “big one,” as some irresponsible persons are falsely posting on social media. Shake a rattle drum to this latter blokes.

According to Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs), since the 1900s, Mindanao has been rocked by at least 35 earthquakes, three of which, felt at “Intensity 7” or worse, were deemed destructive: the 1976 Moro Gulf earthquake which caused a tsunami reaching up to nine meters that killed about 8,000 people including the unaccounted ones; the 1999 series of earthquakes in Agusan del Sur damaging roads, and poorly constructed schools and infrastructure; and the Sultan Kudarat earthquake in 2002, killing eight people with 41 others injured and affecting over seven thousand families in the provinces of Sarangani, North and South Cotabato (Rappler 2019). Shake a rattle of prayers for all who perished in these tragedies.

The series of earthquakes in October of this year, just weeks apart, with magnitudes of over 6 hitting many provinces, again, in Cotabato and southern parts of Davao accounted for the death toll of 22, damaging homes, school buildings and many infrastructure, shaking and sending chills to many residents who have to deal with continuing albeit smaller tremors which can be felt as far up the city of Cagayan de Oro and down the southern province of Sarangani.

Some local officials reported residents having developed “earthquake phobia” keeping watch on their clock hanging inside their tents in evacuation sites, losing sleep with anxiety awaiting when the next tremor would be coming. With frayed nerves, some would panic over even slight ground shakings.

But this is not about the temblor as much as the response of people and the country’s leaders and responsible officials. Except for the government of China which donated P22 million in aid and support for relief efforts in Mindanao, hurray for China, other foreign countries just expressed condolences and messages of sympathy to families of victims. No pledges, no assistance. Perhaps, they can’t trust our government agencies to do the job for them anymore. To them, a shake of the baby rattle.

To the initial bunch of donors who immediately come with their financial assistance such as Yorme Isko Moreno of Manila with his P5 million personal money, Mayor Vico Sotto with relief goods and P14 million coming from the people of Pasig City, Mayor Marcy Teodoro of Marikina with 100 modular tents, movie star Angel Locsin who moved about sans fanfare for her charity work offering food and other assistance to victims in Davao and North Cotabato, to Mayor Inday Duterte for relief distribution, Cebu provincial government for disaster relief campaign and to the many nameless others who came with their relief aids, shake a rattle of joy and thankfulness for their kindness and generosity.

To our government officials and politicians goes our appeal to set aside politics, distribute the relief items according to the wishes of their donors and not allow goods to rot because of political colors as was shown in the previous administration’s handling of donated goods. To them, shake a rattle of enlightenment and peace.

In whatever disaster or crisis that befalls the country, trust Filipinos’ resiliency and coping mechanisms such as resorting to prayers and humor to come to their succor.

Social media become a natural venue for memes, practical jokes and bantering such as the ones which came after Pastor Apollo C. Quiboloy reportedly claimed that he caused to stop the earthquakes so they can no longer create damage. To everyone, shake a rattle of laughter and fun while we help provide for the needs of our less fortunate brethren in Cotabato and Davao provinces.