IN my column shortly before the elections, I reprinted a quote attributed to former senator Frank Drilon (which he has denied): "The best evidence of our political system's desperate bankruptcy is the proliferation of actors, actresses and comedians dominating our legislative and executive branches, including the local government units." (Two elections ... MT, May 7, 2025)

Surprisingly, the voters must have heeded his advice as those he named — popular actors, comedians and TV personalities lost. Foremost among these was Sen. Bong Revilla, who lost his seat. Along with radio-TV personality Ben Tulfo, "Pambansang Kamao" Manny Pacquiao and TV host comedian Willie Revillame, who all figured as shoo-ins in pre-election surveys by SWS, Pulse Asia and OCTA — were all eliminated. This says something for the accuracy, credibility and trustworthiness of these surveys. Popular actor Philip Salvador never made good in the surveys. But Sen. Lito Lapid, a Senate nonperformer but an action star, was a tailender — "nakalusot," as they say in the vernacular.

Marcos' strategic folly

There were many surprises to this midterm election. But perhaps the most glaring is the foolish strategy of the Marcos-Araneta-Romualdez camp in timing the exile and incarceration of former president Duterte at The Hague on March 11, 2025, two months prior to the elections. The Alyansa senatorial slate at the beginning of March was riding high with 10 names in the win column with Erwin Tulfo consistently occupying the top slot; only Bong Go and Bato Dela Rosa from the opposition made it to the winning list, in the 9th to 12th slots. It is a measure of President Duterte's residual political influence, and the sympathy votes he provoked that resurrected the lackluster and anemic PDP-Laban candidates. VP Sara's political weight was likewise evident in singling out Camille Villar and Imee Marcos from the Alyansa, effectively adopting them into the fold of the PDP-Laban.

The Iglesia Ni Cristo's (INC) last-minute support for the "sure winners" finalized the opposition's Bong Go, Bato de la Rosa, Marcoleta, Camille Villar and Imee Marcos to the win column; except for Bong Revilla who got away from his plunder case but has not reportedly returned the P124.5 million he kept. Even the touted INC endorsement couldn't carry the miscreant across the winning column.

Reemergence of VP Sara

VP Sara could be the biggest beneficiary of this midterm with her impeachment now practically dead with Senate allies holding more than one-third of the votes needed to avert a guilty verdict. But recently, with her usual arrogance, she said she wanted the trial to proceed as she wanted a "bloodbath."

Sara has shown her clout with her congressional quadcom tormentors; Stella Quimbo, Dan Fernandez, Benny Abante (both involved in quadcom scandal), France Castro, Mark Go and "Caraps" Paduano, losing their own bid for reelection, leaving The House speaker's team in disarray. Romualdez may soon be replaced as speaker — if BBM had the balls. In his defense, Romualdez, through his spokesman deputy speaker David Suarez, declared that about 86 percent of the 215 congressmen who signed the impeachment complaint against the vice president have been reelected — deriding VP Sara's political weight.

The feud between the two political dynasties, Marcos and Duterte, may have precipitated an unintended consequence, with mostly the young voters disgusted with the same old tradpol practiced by these two factions. This change in voting profile attributed to the changing demographics may have emboldened the decimated remnants of the old "yellow army" back in the equation. This propelled Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan to the Senate, former vice president Leni to the mayoralty of Naga and stalwarts Leila de Lima and Chel Diokno to House as party-list representatives to torment the Dutertes. The "pinklawans" are back.

But these singular elections in no way ushered in a certain maturity in the Filipino voters. One swallow does not a summer make. Money still flowed, particularly from the stolen coffers of the 2025 budget — used by the speaker's minions in the scandalous "Ayuda AKAP" program. The politics of personalities still dominate. Qualified candidates, among them Heidi Mendoza, Luke Espiritu, and Sonny Matula, etc. under the present dysfunctional system could never make it.

Undetermined results

Overall, our system is still entrenched deep in tradpol practices where dynasties and their oligarchic allies reign supreme, although results were mixed. The Cebu Garcias, descendants of Pablo Garcia who founded the dynasty upon the political carcasses of the Osmeñas and Cuencos, were obliterated. Yet in Davao City the ascendant Duterte children saw the complete annihilation of the once formidable Castillo-Nograles-Garcia clan, trouncing the late founder Nonoy Garcia's second district. VP Sara revealed that this decades-long alliance unraveled earlier in January 2005 by a "snub" on the Dutertes, forcing the latter to field the candidacy of Omar, a complete unknown but a Duterte grandson.

But in the five Davao provinces BBM's PFP held sway in most governorships. Congressman John Cagas, the only Davao region lawmaker to have voted to impeach VP Sara, got a fresh mandate.

The blame game has started. BBM's special assistant Anton Lagdameo, scion of the once formidable Floirendo-Del Rosario-Garcia clan, could get the axe for mishandling the campaign in BARMM. Except for Lapid, none of Alyansa's 10 senatorial bets won. Also, "Teng" Mangudadatu has accused Lagdameo of practically "pocketing" billions of BARMM funds.

Systemic reforms

This state of affairs will go unchanged unless the underlying systemic dysfunctions protected by the 1987 Constitution are revised. There is a slim chance for constitutional revisions as the three guardians of the Cory Constitution, Bam Aquino, Kiko Pangilinan and Risa Hontiveros will have their say against Robin Padilla, the Senate committee on constitutional revisions chairman who surprisingly is turning out to be the champion of a shift from a unitary-presidential to a federal-parliamentary system. These are advocates of the Centrist Democrats and the original PDP-Laban founded by the late senator Nene Pimentel — captured and perverted by the Deegong in 2016.

With the remnants of the Cory "yellows" confronting the Dutertes and the Marcos-Araneta-Romualdez factions, a tectonic shift in the political firmament may occur once the state of the nation is defined by the lame duck BBM followed by the ICC trial of the Deegong. The second half of this year will be an opportunity for the emerging opposition in the highest echelons of Philippine political leadership to strengthen itself as a third force.

Since traditional politics still rule, we will be drawn to speculations on who will be the next president rather than how the myriad problems of the country are to be solved; poverty alleviation, the disparity between the haves and the have-nots, injustices, and the perversion of the rule of law will be relegated to the backburner. Evidence surfacing on the ICC trial could spell the Deegong's guilt or innocence, a game changer, impacting on his daughter's political fortunes.

Peripheral to the dispensing of justice, this ICC trial could be a telenovela dear to Filipinos, with episodes lasting for years which the Deegong does not have. And his demise, Inshalla, would be the ultimate roll of the dice — for him, for the Marcos-Araneta-Romualdez faction and for the fortunes of his daughter. But nothing towards the upliftment of the Filipino.

The Senate President crowed yesterday that the party he nominally coheads, PDP-Laban, has a “pleasant problem” — too many potential senatorial candidates. Koko Pimentel’s estimate is they have up to 20 possible choices for the 12-person slate for the 2019 senatorial race. But his list includes the five administration-affiliated senatorial incumbents up for reelection next year. This is a group that has made noises that, much as it prefers to remain in the administration camp, it is unhappy with the way PDP-Laban has been designating its local leaders and candidates, and therefore prefers to strike out on its own, perhaps in alliance with the other administration (regional) party, Hugpong ng Pagbabago, headed by the President’s daughter and current Davao City mayor, Sara Duterte.

Setting aside, then, the five-person “Force,” the administration-oriented but not PDP-friendly reelectionists (Nancy Binay, Sonny Angara, Cynthia Villar, Grace Poe, and JV Ejercito), what Koko’s crowing over is a mixed bag. Some of them have been floated by Speaker Pantaleon Alvarez (with whom Mayor Duterte clashed in recent months): six representatives (Gloria Macapagal Arroyo who is in her last term in the House of Representatives; Albee Benitez, Karlo Nograles, Rey Umali, Geraldine Roman, and Zajid Mangudadatu), three Cabinet members (Bong Go, Harry Roque, and Francis Tolentino), and two other officials (Mocha Uson and Ronald dela Rosa), which still only adds up to 11 possible candidates (who are the missing three?).

Of all of these, the “Force” reelectionists are only fair-weather allies of the present dispensation; their setting themselves apart is about much more than the mess PDP-Laban made in, say, San Juan where support for the Zamoras makes it extremely unattractive for JV Ejercito to consider being in the same slate. Their cohesion is about thinking ahead: Creating the nucleus for the main coalition to beat in the 2022 presidential election. The contingent of congressmen and congresswomen who could become candidates for the Senate, however, seems more a means to kick the Speaker’s rivals upstairs (at least in the case of Benitez and Arroyo) and pad the candidates’ list with token but sacrificial candidates, a similar situation to the executive officials being mentioned as possible candidates (of the executive officials, only Go seems viable, but making him run would deprive the President of the man who actually runs the executive department, and would be a clear signal that the administration is shifting to a post-term protection attitude instead of the more ambitious system-change mode it’s been on, so far).

Vice President Leni Robredo has been more circumspect, saying she’s not sure the Liberal Party can even muster a full slate. The party chair, Kiko Pangilinan, denied that a list circulating online (incumbent Bam Aquino, former senators Mar Roxas, Jun Magsaysay, TG Guingona, current and former representatives Jose Christopher Belmonte, Kaka Bag-ao, Edcel Lagman, Raul Daza, Gary Alejano and Erin Tañada, former governor Eddie Panlilio and Cebu City Mayor Tomas Osmeña) had any basis in fact.

What both lists have in common is they could be surveys-on-the-cheap, trial balloons to get the public pulse. Until the 17th Congress reconvenes briefly from May 14 to June 1 for the tail end of its second regular session (only to adjourn sine die until the third regular session begins on July 23), it has nothing much to do. Except, that is, for the barangay elections in May, after a last-ditch effort by the House to postpone them yet again to October failed.

Names can be floated but the real signal will come in July, when the President mounts the rostrum and calls for the big push for a new constitution—or not. Connected to this would be whether the Supreme Court disposes of its own chief, which would spare the Senate—and thus, free up the legislative calendar—to consider Charter change instead of an impeachment trial. In the meantime, what congressmen do seem abuzz over is an unrefusable invitation to the Palace tomorrow — to mark Arroyo’s birthday. An event possibly pregnant with meaning.

“Then I fall to my knees, shake a rattle at the skies and I’m afraid that I’ll be taken, abandoned, forsaken in her cold coffee eyes.” – A quote from the song, “She moves on” by Paul Simon, singer/songwriter

THE recent tremors affecting the central provinces of Mindanao caused by a series of seismic waves radiating to the northern and southern parts of the island, were like nature shaking a rattle, emitting sharp sounds and unnerving motions from the underground, both frightening and bewildering as to the intensity and confusion they generated.

The successive earthquakes and aftershocks were rattling the nerves not only of residents close to the epicenter but also those living along the active fault planes who were not used to strong earth movements. Some reported dizziness, anxiety, depression and other post-traumatic stress symptoms after experiencing continuous shaking and periodic vibrations.

As this article was written, less frequent but perceptible tremors were felt on the affected areas although everyone is reportedly bracing for aftershocks which many hope and pray, would not turn out to be the dreaded “big one,” as some irresponsible persons are falsely posting on social media. Shake a rattle drum to this latter blokes.

According to Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs), since the 1900s, Mindanao has been rocked by at least 35 earthquakes, three of which, felt at “Intensity 7” or worse, were deemed destructive: the 1976 Moro Gulf earthquake which caused a tsunami reaching up to nine meters that killed about 8,000 people including the unaccounted ones; the 1999 series of earthquakes in Agusan del Sur damaging roads, and poorly constructed schools and infrastructure; and the Sultan Kudarat earthquake in 2002, killing eight people with 41 others injured and affecting over seven thousand families in the provinces of Sarangani, North and South Cotabato (Rappler 2019). Shake a rattle of prayers for all who perished in these tragedies.

The series of earthquakes in October of this year, just weeks apart, with magnitudes of over 6 hitting many provinces, again, in Cotabato and southern parts of Davao accounted for the death toll of 22, damaging homes, school buildings and many infrastructure, shaking and sending chills to many residents who have to deal with continuing albeit smaller tremors which can be felt as far up the city of Cagayan de Oro and down the southern province of Sarangani.

Some local officials reported residents having developed “earthquake phobia” keeping watch on their clock hanging inside their tents in evacuation sites, losing sleep with anxiety awaiting when the next tremor would be coming. With frayed nerves, some would panic over even slight ground shakings.

But this is not about the temblor as much as the response of people and the country’s leaders and responsible officials. Except for the government of China which donated P22 million in aid and support for relief efforts in Mindanao, hurray for China, other foreign countries just expressed condolences and messages of sympathy to families of victims. No pledges, no assistance. Perhaps, they can’t trust our government agencies to do the job for them anymore. To them, a shake of the baby rattle.

To the initial bunch of donors who immediately come with their financial assistance such as Yorme Isko Moreno of Manila with his P5 million personal money, Mayor Vico Sotto with relief goods and P14 million coming from the people of Pasig City, Mayor Marcy Teodoro of Marikina with 100 modular tents, movie star Angel Locsin who moved about sans fanfare for her charity work offering food and other assistance to victims in Davao and North Cotabato, to Mayor Inday Duterte for relief distribution, Cebu provincial government for disaster relief campaign and to the many nameless others who came with their relief aids, shake a rattle of joy and thankfulness for their kindness and generosity.

To our government officials and politicians goes our appeal to set aside politics, distribute the relief items according to the wishes of their donors and not allow goods to rot because of political colors as was shown in the previous administration’s handling of donated goods. To them, shake a rattle of enlightenment and peace.

In whatever disaster or crisis that befalls the country, trust Filipinos’ resiliency and coping mechanisms such as resorting to prayers and humor to come to their succor.

Social media become a natural venue for memes, practical jokes and bantering such as the ones which came after Pastor Apollo C. Quiboloy reportedly claimed that he caused to stop the earthquakes so they can no longer create damage. To everyone, shake a rattle of laughter and fun while we help provide for the needs of our less fortunate brethren in Cotabato and Davao provinces.