Second of 3 parts

LAST week's column cited three crimes involving powerful people: former president Rodrigo Duterte, former congressman and deputy speaker Arnulfo Teves Jr., and Pastor Apollo Quiboloy. These high-profile criminal cases have international implications, but they don't matter. Their local deleterious political repercussions have more importance. And considering how the wheels of justice in this country turn and grind slowly, based on similar cases involving the high and mighty, I estimate that social and mass media will determine a short life expectancy until the next controversy supersedes. And out of the public glare, our dysfunctional system intrudes, and in the end, nothing happens. These three would most probably go scot-free, and Philippine jurisprudence will be none the worse for wear. The man in the street will speculate why. Na politika na naman!

Deegong and Quiboloy cases

It is now obvious that the continued investigation of the International Criminal Court (ICC) cases when BBM said he was studying the Philippines' return to the ICC fold triggered Duterte's ire that is now tearing the UniTeam and the political firmament apart. The Philippines under Duterte withdrew from the international tribunal in 2019 after he questioned its authority to investigate his campaign against illegal drugs that killed thousands of Filipinos. The Marcoses, upon BBM's assumption of the presidency, were then fully behind this move. But BBM's reversal was the Damocles sword held over the former president's head, the red line BBM can't cross, sparking vituperative statements calling BBM "bangag," a dope addict, with his two sons artlessly joining the chorus excepting the daughter, Sara, who did not exactly stay in the sidelines — a fact that riled the first lady.

No doubt the cavalier treatment by the Marcos camp of VP Sara, stripping her of intelligence funds from which a substantial portion traditionally and anomalously could be diverted to future campaign funds, to the very public snub by the first lady Liza of Sara added fuel to the political fire now raging between the two political dynasties. Political cognoscenti and pundits see these as the opening gambits for the mid-term elections in 2025 and the ultimate 2028 presidential elections.

As to the powerful ally of the Dutertes, Pastor Quiboloy and his media empire, the Sonshine Media Network International (SMNI), may go the way of a similar Duterte bete noire, the Lopez-owned ABS-CBN. SMNI's disenfranchisement is now going through the wringer in Congress, orchestrated by the powerful Marcos relative, House Speaker Martin Romualdez — the not-so-apparent heir to the Marcos political dynasty. The ASOG Quiboloy likewise has a deadly cloud of uncertainty hovering over his head with his possible extradition to America over a multitude of cases being investigated by the US FBI of rape, child molestation, cash smuggling, and laundering. Urban legend suggests the ASOG may be hiding in plain sight in Davao, protected by his Kingdom of Jesus Christ Church (KOJC) — his and Duterte's bailiwick, where even the uniformed authorities must look the other way. Then again, the finale to all these is substantially in the hands of President Marcos. But politics is the underlying condition upon which these may be resolved.

The case of the ex-congressman

It could be different with ex-congressman Arnulfo Teves Jr. Compared to the previous two; he is a small fish in a pond now undergoing the process of expulsion from Timor-Leste from where he was arrested, living the good life of a rich fugitive. He is not too high up in the national political totem pole to become a headache for the Marcoses, but his clan in the Visayas could prove to be invaluable in Negros Oriental and Visayas politics as he can boast of a distinguished bloodline: former Negros Oriental governors 'Meniong' and Lorenzo Teves, former finance secretary Margarito Teves, brother and former governor Pryde Henry Teves (his election was annulled by Comelec), and assorted local government (LGU) mayors and minor elective officials. These are bargaining chips in our type of transactional politics.

From where we sit, the resolution of these cases depends not so much on Philippine jurisprudence and the fairness of our justice system but on the exigencies and realities and how the pragmatism of politics will unfold these coming months. And these are the prevailing conditions by which this country is now being perceived by our neighbors and tragically even by our own citizenry and which right-thinking Pinoys should be ashamed of.

Will the Deegong be brought to face the ICC and answer for his transgressions — if any — and satisfy the demands of families of the thousands of victims reportedly killed during his regime? I doubt it! He is too politically powerful and has enough clout to prevent being arrested, even if a warrant of arrest comes from the ICC. Currently, he has maintained his high popularity with the Filipino masses, and a substantial portion of the elected senators and congressmen owe him fealty. For the mid-term elections of 2025, he ranks a high second place in the senatorial preference surveys, according to the polls conducted by Publicus Asia. And among those senators who could win, more than half are his minions and allies.

Can he be arrested in Davao? And by whom? The ICC has no police powers or an independent mechanism to enforce arrest warrants and depends solely on the host countries' judiciary systems. Reportedly, ICC judges have issued 40 such warrants in 22 years of existence, and 15 of those to be arrested remain at large. Vladimir Putin himself has an ICC-issued warrant of arrest.

The same may be true with the Deegong's ally, Pastor Quiboloy, as far as his cases in America are concerned. He may not be easily extradited to the US despite the FBI labeling him "wanted in America." He has too many powerful friends elected to the Senate and and the House through the captive votes of his church with a claimed membership running to the millions, not to mention the tax-free millions of church funds under his control. He has boasted that his assets are in the billions of US dollars. And he has the protection of his newly appointed KOJC assets "encargado" — the Deegong himself.

Yes, he could be arrested for the local criminal charges against him, but prosecuting him through the cracks of the Philippine justice system would almost be next to impossible — the reason why he fears the US CIA rendition.

What is imperative for the country is the need for the presidency to display moral ascendancy with a clearly defined agenda to effect change using one's political capital exhibiting political will. It doesn't give the citizenry much confidence and the leadership much credibility when, for example, it is challenged by a former speaker, Pantaleon Alvarez, the Deegong's ally, calling for the military to withdraw support from a legitimate government. And BBM does nothing!

We boast of being the first truly democratic country in Asia when America first planted its system of governance and the underlying concepts of republicanism and democracy, where we uphold the rule of law. Perhaps it is high time to review these standards for their continued relevancy.

The Senate President crowed yesterday that the party he nominally coheads, PDP-Laban, has a “pleasant problem” — too many potential senatorial candidates. Koko Pimentel’s estimate is they have up to 20 possible choices for the 12-person slate for the 2019 senatorial race. But his list includes the five administration-affiliated senatorial incumbents up for reelection next year. This is a group that has made noises that, much as it prefers to remain in the administration camp, it is unhappy with the way PDP-Laban has been designating its local leaders and candidates, and therefore prefers to strike out on its own, perhaps in alliance with the other administration (regional) party, Hugpong ng Pagbabago, headed by the President’s daughter and current Davao City mayor, Sara Duterte.

Setting aside, then, the five-person “Force,” the administration-oriented but not PDP-friendly reelectionists (Nancy Binay, Sonny Angara, Cynthia Villar, Grace Poe, and JV Ejercito), what Koko’s crowing over is a mixed bag. Some of them have been floated by Speaker Pantaleon Alvarez (with whom Mayor Duterte clashed in recent months): six representatives (Gloria Macapagal Arroyo who is in her last term in the House of Representatives; Albee Benitez, Karlo Nograles, Rey Umali, Geraldine Roman, and Zajid Mangudadatu), three Cabinet members (Bong Go, Harry Roque, and Francis Tolentino), and two other officials (Mocha Uson and Ronald dela Rosa), which still only adds up to 11 possible candidates (who are the missing three?).

Of all of these, the “Force” reelectionists are only fair-weather allies of the present dispensation; their setting themselves apart is about much more than the mess PDP-Laban made in, say, San Juan where support for the Zamoras makes it extremely unattractive for JV Ejercito to consider being in the same slate. Their cohesion is about thinking ahead: Creating the nucleus for the main coalition to beat in the 2022 presidential election. The contingent of congressmen and congresswomen who could become candidates for the Senate, however, seems more a means to kick the Speaker’s rivals upstairs (at least in the case of Benitez and Arroyo) and pad the candidates’ list with token but sacrificial candidates, a similar situation to the executive officials being mentioned as possible candidates (of the executive officials, only Go seems viable, but making him run would deprive the President of the man who actually runs the executive department, and would be a clear signal that the administration is shifting to a post-term protection attitude instead of the more ambitious system-change mode it’s been on, so far).

Vice President Leni Robredo has been more circumspect, saying she’s not sure the Liberal Party can even muster a full slate. The party chair, Kiko Pangilinan, denied that a list circulating online (incumbent Bam Aquino, former senators Mar Roxas, Jun Magsaysay, TG Guingona, current and former representatives Jose Christopher Belmonte, Kaka Bag-ao, Edcel Lagman, Raul Daza, Gary Alejano and Erin Tañada, former governor Eddie Panlilio and Cebu City Mayor Tomas Osmeña) had any basis in fact.

What both lists have in common is they could be surveys-on-the-cheap, trial balloons to get the public pulse. Until the 17th Congress reconvenes briefly from May 14 to June 1 for the tail end of its second regular session (only to adjourn sine die until the third regular session begins on July 23), it has nothing much to do. Except, that is, for the barangay elections in May, after a last-ditch effort by the House to postpone them yet again to October failed.

Names can be floated but the real signal will come in July, when the President mounts the rostrum and calls for the big push for a new constitution—or not. Connected to this would be whether the Supreme Court disposes of its own chief, which would spare the Senate—and thus, free up the legislative calendar—to consider Charter change instead of an impeachment trial. In the meantime, what congressmen do seem abuzz over is an unrefusable invitation to the Palace tomorrow — to mark Arroyo’s birthday. An event possibly pregnant with meaning.

“Then I fall to my knees, shake a rattle at the skies and I’m afraid that I’ll be taken, abandoned, forsaken in her cold coffee eyes.” – A quote from the song, “She moves on” by Paul Simon, singer/songwriter

THE recent tremors affecting the central provinces of Mindanao caused by a series of seismic waves radiating to the northern and southern parts of the island, were like nature shaking a rattle, emitting sharp sounds and unnerving motions from the underground, both frightening and bewildering as to the intensity and confusion they generated.

The successive earthquakes and aftershocks were rattling the nerves not only of residents close to the epicenter but also those living along the active fault planes who were not used to strong earth movements. Some reported dizziness, anxiety, depression and other post-traumatic stress symptoms after experiencing continuous shaking and periodic vibrations.

As this article was written, less frequent but perceptible tremors were felt on the affected areas although everyone is reportedly bracing for aftershocks which many hope and pray, would not turn out to be the dreaded “big one,” as some irresponsible persons are falsely posting on social media. Shake a rattle drum to this latter blokes.

According to Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs), since the 1900s, Mindanao has been rocked by at least 35 earthquakes, three of which, felt at “Intensity 7” or worse, were deemed destructive: the 1976 Moro Gulf earthquake which caused a tsunami reaching up to nine meters that killed about 8,000 people including the unaccounted ones; the 1999 series of earthquakes in Agusan del Sur damaging roads, and poorly constructed schools and infrastructure; and the Sultan Kudarat earthquake in 2002, killing eight people with 41 others injured and affecting over seven thousand families in the provinces of Sarangani, North and South Cotabato (Rappler 2019). Shake a rattle of prayers for all who perished in these tragedies.

The series of earthquakes in October of this year, just weeks apart, with magnitudes of over 6 hitting many provinces, again, in Cotabato and southern parts of Davao accounted for the death toll of 22, damaging homes, school buildings and many infrastructure, shaking and sending chills to many residents who have to deal with continuing albeit smaller tremors which can be felt as far up the city of Cagayan de Oro and down the southern province of Sarangani.

Some local officials reported residents having developed “earthquake phobia” keeping watch on their clock hanging inside their tents in evacuation sites, losing sleep with anxiety awaiting when the next tremor would be coming. With frayed nerves, some would panic over even slight ground shakings.

But this is not about the temblor as much as the response of people and the country’s leaders and responsible officials. Except for the government of China which donated P22 million in aid and support for relief efforts in Mindanao, hurray for China, other foreign countries just expressed condolences and messages of sympathy to families of victims. No pledges, no assistance. Perhaps, they can’t trust our government agencies to do the job for them anymore. To them, a shake of the baby rattle.

To the initial bunch of donors who immediately come with their financial assistance such as Yorme Isko Moreno of Manila with his P5 million personal money, Mayor Vico Sotto with relief goods and P14 million coming from the people of Pasig City, Mayor Marcy Teodoro of Marikina with 100 modular tents, movie star Angel Locsin who moved about sans fanfare for her charity work offering food and other assistance to victims in Davao and North Cotabato, to Mayor Inday Duterte for relief distribution, Cebu provincial government for disaster relief campaign and to the many nameless others who came with their relief aids, shake a rattle of joy and thankfulness for their kindness and generosity.

To our government officials and politicians goes our appeal to set aside politics, distribute the relief items according to the wishes of their donors and not allow goods to rot because of political colors as was shown in the previous administration’s handling of donated goods. To them, shake a rattle of enlightenment and peace.

In whatever disaster or crisis that befalls the country, trust Filipinos’ resiliency and coping mechanisms such as resorting to prayers and humor to come to their succor.

Social media become a natural venue for memes, practical jokes and bantering such as the ones which came after Pastor Apollo C. Quiboloy reportedly claimed that he caused to stop the earthquakes so they can no longer create damage. To everyone, shake a rattle of laughter and fun while we help provide for the needs of our less fortunate brethren in Cotabato and Davao provinces.