BY his 90-day proscription period, and beyond, the world will be in a quandary, mulling over Trump's next moves over the suspension of his reciprocal tariffs. Knowing that this arrogant bully by now has revealed to the world that he really doesn't have any notion as to the ramifications of his decisions, he will continue spinning this face-saving disarray as a masterstroke. Since no remaining adults in the White House can impose a semblance of order, he must rely solely on the feedback mechanisms of the unthinking "baskets of deplorables." Even the likes of subaltern Elon Musk and his ilk and those within MAGA who have had a recent reversal of fortunes, will inch themselves out of this nightmarish state of affairs that will ensue if this wave of disenchantment and protests, particularly from the "red" states, snowballs throughout America.

As gleaned from Trump's humiliating surrender, forced to exclude from his China tariff smartphones, computers, laptops and other electronic devices, semiconductors, solar cells, and memory cards, etc., chances are he will unilaterally proclaim the rest of the suspended reciprocal tariffs no longer operable. declaring a victory; that he has succeeded in getting everyone to the negotiating table — including his nemesis, China. Each economy will find itself treading its own path — the big ones with a combined nominal GDP of $77.56 trillion, Germany, Japan, India, UK, France, Italy, Canada, Brazil, aside from the US and China will be dominating the narrative for the foreseeable future. I am more concerned with my country and how it will wade through this morass.

Economy and trade profile

The Philippines ranks 38th among 199 world economies with a GDP of $507.67 billion. In 2024, total trade was $200.6 billion, broken into $73.2 billion exports and $127.4 billion imports with deficits of $54.2 billion. We run a deficit with China and a surplus with America. The bulk of our exports are electronics, woodcraft and furniture and some manufactured goods, chiefly to the US and Japan ($12.12 billion and $10.33 billion, respectively).

Our imports are petroleum, oils and coal and integrated circuits which we then assemble and re-export as various categories of electronic products; shipped largely from China totaling 25.7 percent of total import value amounting to $32.83 billion. We run a deficit of $4.14 billion.

What we have, others may not

With American firms abandoning China, perhaps we can entice some of these manufacturing companies to relocate to the Philippines highlighting our comparative advantage. Aside from being one of the oldest trading partners of America, having been America's first colony, ever, we can play the "brown brother" card. We are the only Christian country in these parts. And we love Hollywood more than Bollywood.

At the turn of the century, the "Thomasites," 600 American teachers, traveled from the US to the newly occupied territory to establish the public education system patterned after America. They came aboard the US Army transport ship USS Thomas, thus the name. They planted the seeds for what would eventually become a large pool of bilingual English-speaking, educated and skilled workers.

Outsourcing services

This gave rise to the BPO industry — the business process outsourcing that has been providing services such as customer and technical support, and back-office operations to companies around the world, especially in the US — where our labor is much more competitive.

BPO has grown exponentially not only due to our skilled bilingual hardworking young workers but by the quirks of the 12-hour time difference. The 9 to 5 daytime working hours in America are serviced by our 9 to 5 night shift workers.

PH eyes deeper military ties with Taiwan

Not to mention the large pool of OFW experienced in working abroad who, due to the looming Trump-induced global economic turbulence, may be moving back home themselves. These are the Filipinos who have been the backbone of health care, workers in the information technology sectors, manufacturing and construction who may be attractive to foreign firms relocating to the country.

Geography and tourism

The Philippines is strategically located in Southeast Asia serving as a gateway to other markets in the region — with close proximity to China, Malaysia, Singapore, Japan, Korea, and Indonesia — powerhouse economies. And with its tropical climate — we only have dry and wet seasons — no winter frosts, allowing an abundance of all-year-round exotic fruits and agricultural products in demand in the international market. The country as an archipelago also boasts of the fifth longest coastline in the world measuring 36,289 kilometers (22,549 miles) where surrounding seas are abundant with seafood.

Our tourism sector has world-class destinations with amenities from the world-famous Boracay to El Nido to Gintubay to secluded beach hideaways and diving spots in the coastal provinces; to mountain areas with cooler climes at higher altitudes and rainforests with diverse fauna/flora — accessible to local metropolises where inexpensive shopping and local and international restaurants cater to all types of cuisine.

Manufacturing — emerging market

The Philippines has a growing manufacturing sector, particularly in electronics and semiconductors. It is a key player in the global supply chain for electronic components, which permeate many industries, including technology, automotive and non-robotic assembly lines. We have long established bilateral and multilateral trade agreements that enhance our trade relations with other countries, including the US itself. The Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) allows certain Philippine products to enter the US market duty-free, promoting exports — unless Trump insists on extracting his pound of flesh on our imports. Coming from a still low base of development, the country presents opportunities for investment and a wide space for growth — making it an attractive destination for foreign direct investments (FDI) in many of the economic sectors. These comparative advantages position the Philippines favorably in international trade, particularly with the US and other countries in the region.

The flip side

Although we have managed to emerge as an economic tiger cub in the region and we have long shed our image as the "sick man in Asia," our system of governance has time and again reinforced those defective structures and pulled us back to where we were. We have long established that our systemic defects in governance — rent-seeking bureaucrats, corrupt elected officials, traditional politics, political dynasties and the complicit oligarchy — are the root causes why the country can't move forward as fast as we want to despite the comparative advantages described above.

We have long identified that our 1987 Constitution — written as a knee-jerk derivative of decades of the totalitarian martial law regime — is the instrument that has encased and institutionalized these systemic deficiencies. For one, some provisions prevent foreign direct investments (FDI) from pouring into the country — the lifeblood of economic growth.

We, the progressives, have always clamored for the revision of the 1987 FDI-averse Constitution. And the conservatives and the guardians of the status quo entrenched in the power structure of the country, shielded by the Constitution, have always managed to stymie the needed systemic reforms that could propel our country forward. We have a very slim chance this midterm elections can put in place the seeds of possible reforms.

We have some senatorial candidates who may fit the mold of the constitutional reformists that may need our votes.

 

The Senate President crowed yesterday that the party he nominally coheads, PDP-Laban, has a “pleasant problem” — too many potential senatorial candidates. Koko Pimentel’s estimate is they have up to 20 possible choices for the 12-person slate for the 2019 senatorial race. But his list includes the five administration-affiliated senatorial incumbents up for reelection next year. This is a group that has made noises that, much as it prefers to remain in the administration camp, it is unhappy with the way PDP-Laban has been designating its local leaders and candidates, and therefore prefers to strike out on its own, perhaps in alliance with the other administration (regional) party, Hugpong ng Pagbabago, headed by the President’s daughter and current Davao City mayor, Sara Duterte.

Setting aside, then, the five-person “Force,” the administration-oriented but not PDP-friendly reelectionists (Nancy Binay, Sonny Angara, Cynthia Villar, Grace Poe, and JV Ejercito), what Koko’s crowing over is a mixed bag. Some of them have been floated by Speaker Pantaleon Alvarez (with whom Mayor Duterte clashed in recent months): six representatives (Gloria Macapagal Arroyo who is in her last term in the House of Representatives; Albee Benitez, Karlo Nograles, Rey Umali, Geraldine Roman, and Zajid Mangudadatu), three Cabinet members (Bong Go, Harry Roque, and Francis Tolentino), and two other officials (Mocha Uson and Ronald dela Rosa), which still only adds up to 11 possible candidates (who are the missing three?).

Of all of these, the “Force” reelectionists are only fair-weather allies of the present dispensation; their setting themselves apart is about much more than the mess PDP-Laban made in, say, San Juan where support for the Zamoras makes it extremely unattractive for JV Ejercito to consider being in the same slate. Their cohesion is about thinking ahead: Creating the nucleus for the main coalition to beat in the 2022 presidential election. The contingent of congressmen and congresswomen who could become candidates for the Senate, however, seems more a means to kick the Speaker’s rivals upstairs (at least in the case of Benitez and Arroyo) and pad the candidates’ list with token but sacrificial candidates, a similar situation to the executive officials being mentioned as possible candidates (of the executive officials, only Go seems viable, but making him run would deprive the President of the man who actually runs the executive department, and would be a clear signal that the administration is shifting to a post-term protection attitude instead of the more ambitious system-change mode it’s been on, so far).

Vice President Leni Robredo has been more circumspect, saying she’s not sure the Liberal Party can even muster a full slate. The party chair, Kiko Pangilinan, denied that a list circulating online (incumbent Bam Aquino, former senators Mar Roxas, Jun Magsaysay, TG Guingona, current and former representatives Jose Christopher Belmonte, Kaka Bag-ao, Edcel Lagman, Raul Daza, Gary Alejano and Erin Tañada, former governor Eddie Panlilio and Cebu City Mayor Tomas Osmeña) had any basis in fact.

What both lists have in common is they could be surveys-on-the-cheap, trial balloons to get the public pulse. Until the 17th Congress reconvenes briefly from May 14 to June 1 for the tail end of its second regular session (only to adjourn sine die until the third regular session begins on July 23), it has nothing much to do. Except, that is, for the barangay elections in May, after a last-ditch effort by the House to postpone them yet again to October failed.

Names can be floated but the real signal will come in July, when the President mounts the rostrum and calls for the big push for a new constitution—or not. Connected to this would be whether the Supreme Court disposes of its own chief, which would spare the Senate—and thus, free up the legislative calendar—to consider Charter change instead of an impeachment trial. In the meantime, what congressmen do seem abuzz over is an unrefusable invitation to the Palace tomorrow — to mark Arroyo’s birthday. An event possibly pregnant with meaning.

“Then I fall to my knees, shake a rattle at the skies and I’m afraid that I’ll be taken, abandoned, forsaken in her cold coffee eyes.” – A quote from the song, “She moves on” by Paul Simon, singer/songwriter

THE recent tremors affecting the central provinces of Mindanao caused by a series of seismic waves radiating to the northern and southern parts of the island, were like nature shaking a rattle, emitting sharp sounds and unnerving motions from the underground, both frightening and bewildering as to the intensity and confusion they generated.

The successive earthquakes and aftershocks were rattling the nerves not only of residents close to the epicenter but also those living along the active fault planes who were not used to strong earth movements. Some reported dizziness, anxiety, depression and other post-traumatic stress symptoms after experiencing continuous shaking and periodic vibrations.

As this article was written, less frequent but perceptible tremors were felt on the affected areas although everyone is reportedly bracing for aftershocks which many hope and pray, would not turn out to be the dreaded “big one,” as some irresponsible persons are falsely posting on social media. Shake a rattle drum to this latter blokes.

According to Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs), since the 1900s, Mindanao has been rocked by at least 35 earthquakes, three of which, felt at “Intensity 7” or worse, were deemed destructive: the 1976 Moro Gulf earthquake which caused a tsunami reaching up to nine meters that killed about 8,000 people including the unaccounted ones; the 1999 series of earthquakes in Agusan del Sur damaging roads, and poorly constructed schools and infrastructure; and the Sultan Kudarat earthquake in 2002, killing eight people with 41 others injured and affecting over seven thousand families in the provinces of Sarangani, North and South Cotabato (Rappler 2019). Shake a rattle of prayers for all who perished in these tragedies.

The series of earthquakes in October of this year, just weeks apart, with magnitudes of over 6 hitting many provinces, again, in Cotabato and southern parts of Davao accounted for the death toll of 22, damaging homes, school buildings and many infrastructure, shaking and sending chills to many residents who have to deal with continuing albeit smaller tremors which can be felt as far up the city of Cagayan de Oro and down the southern province of Sarangani.

Some local officials reported residents having developed “earthquake phobia” keeping watch on their clock hanging inside their tents in evacuation sites, losing sleep with anxiety awaiting when the next tremor would be coming. With frayed nerves, some would panic over even slight ground shakings.

But this is not about the temblor as much as the response of people and the country’s leaders and responsible officials. Except for the government of China which donated P22 million in aid and support for relief efforts in Mindanao, hurray for China, other foreign countries just expressed condolences and messages of sympathy to families of victims. No pledges, no assistance. Perhaps, they can’t trust our government agencies to do the job for them anymore. To them, a shake of the baby rattle.

To the initial bunch of donors who immediately come with their financial assistance such as Yorme Isko Moreno of Manila with his P5 million personal money, Mayor Vico Sotto with relief goods and P14 million coming from the people of Pasig City, Mayor Marcy Teodoro of Marikina with 100 modular tents, movie star Angel Locsin who moved about sans fanfare for her charity work offering food and other assistance to victims in Davao and North Cotabato, to Mayor Inday Duterte for relief distribution, Cebu provincial government for disaster relief campaign and to the many nameless others who came with their relief aids, shake a rattle of joy and thankfulness for their kindness and generosity.

To our government officials and politicians goes our appeal to set aside politics, distribute the relief items according to the wishes of their donors and not allow goods to rot because of political colors as was shown in the previous administration’s handling of donated goods. To them, shake a rattle of enlightenment and peace.

In whatever disaster or crisis that befalls the country, trust Filipinos’ resiliency and coping mechanisms such as resorting to prayers and humor to come to their succor.

Social media become a natural venue for memes, practical jokes and bantering such as the ones which came after Pastor Apollo C. Quiboloy reportedly claimed that he caused to stop the earthquakes so they can no longer create damage. To everyone, shake a rattle of laughter and fun while we help provide for the needs of our less fortunate brethren in Cotabato and Davao provinces.