THOSE who love him assert it was a spontaneous expression of solidarity. Those who despise him dismiss it as maudlin, corny and staged-managed. March 28 was the Deegong's 80th birthday, a venerable age worth celebrating, but for a besieged former president banished from his homeland, the pathos was devastating. As expected, a polarized people interpreted this day according to their best lights and from where they sit. But how does an ordinary Filipino with no inclination toward local politics or even a foreign observer infer from hundreds of images from countless Philippine cities and hundreds more from foreign lands of thousands greeting him a happy birthday. Signs of "We Love you Tatay Digong," "We await your return" were raised from Abu Dhabi to Oslo, to New York to Antarctica; to General Santos, to Davao City, to Bohol; to the seven continents and even to a pocket of Pinoys somewhere in China. This was OFW-driven — the Deegong's own, those in the fringes and like him, exiles from the land they love.

Pundits on both sides of the aisle now take sides; the pro-Duterte predicting a people power movement leading towards a revolution, echoing that of 1986. The pro-Marcos opine that this is a flash in the pan, an emotional response to the rendition to the Hague of the former president-criminal and therefore not sustainable. Let's wait for the circus of the midterm elections and the evidence from witnesses pouring in from the trial on the "crimes against humanity," they proclaim.

Similarities/dissimilarities 1983 vis-a vis 2025

I took the liberty of communicating with many of those participants of the events leading towards EDSA 1986, gathering their inputs during those times compared to those of today. Paul D, a Davaoeño political technocrat and historian, framed the current events in a timeline analogous to 1983 when Ninoy Aquino was assassinated on the tarmac coming down from a plane from Taiwan on his way back from exile during Marcos the father's watch. Not that Ninoy's assassination is equivalent to the Deegong's forced rendition directly from a commercial plane from Hong Kong to a private plane to the Hague; this time abetted by Marcos, the son. The eerie circumstances may be akin to déjà vu. But not quite. With the Marcos DNA clearly imprinted, we mark this as a point of departure for today's column.

Dramatis personae

John Raña, another political technocrat, opines that "history has a way of repeating itself, and the events leading to EDSA 1 in 1986 mirror many aspects of the political climate." Raña juxtaposed this historical perspective with both personalities as martyrs; Ninoy in 1983 and the Deegong in 2025.

Ninoy's martyrdom in 1983 is perhaps too much of a hyperbole to label the Deegong's circumstance similarly. The former was an ambitious tradpol who sensed a dictator's impending demise handing him an opportunity to negotiate a modus vivendi for the country — fearful of the ascendancy to power of the rival Imelda-Ver-Cojuangco triumvirate.

Deegong on the other hand is accused of crimes against humanity for which the ICC issued an arrest warrant against him and he must face trial at The Hague. Not a martyr in my books. But the method of his rendition and the anomalous participation of a complicit bureaucracy speaks nonetheless of the cowardly act of BBM. His trial abroad is justified because justice in the Philippines is skewed towards the mighty and the powerful; and the Deegong with allies ensconced in the highest echelons still possess the residual effects of power and influence with the capability of distorting the process.

Seething cauldron

Raña's and Paul D's second element as preconditions for an uprising or a revolution was that both periods saw massive corruption and looting of government coffers, economic decline and the perversion of the rule of law. The elder Marcos introduced "cronyism" and "kleptocracy" to the political lexicon and their gross mismanagement perpetrated a debt crisis and bankruptcy of the government leading to hard currency and capital flight.

BBM, aided by relatives elected and unelected, likewise perpetrated massive looting of funds through the budget process and is now poised to extend his grasp on power by perverting the election process with ayuda. Compared to 1983, 2025 is depravity of a lesser magnitude — but unconscionable nonetheless.

Dissent and protests

The third element refers to the suppression of dissent. In 1983, Macoy muzzled the press, allowing the publication only of newspapers controlled by cronies, disseminating his version of truth. The political opposition, resorting to massive protests in the "parliament of the streets," were perfunctorily curtailed, their leaders incarcerated.

In 2025, in this era of internet and social media, the regime's method of press and media repression began with the congressional committee hearings against the mostly pro-Duterte vloggers and podcasters labeling them as "tsismis disseminators" and producers of "fake news" — shaming the leading ones to tears. The brazen minions of the House Speaker during the infamous VP Sara hearing were the same bullies conducting this inquisition.

Military and religious components

The fourth element provided by Harvard-trained retired colonel Alejandro "Babes" Flores is the military's role. In 1983, the Reform the Armed Forces (RAM) movement played a critical role with the defense secretary Juan Ponce Enrile as its patron. A coup d'etat was the primary intention. But it was bound to fail without the participation of the fifth element.

And therein lies the importance of the religious sector headed by Cardinal Sin of the Catholic hierarchy. The people were summoned to EDSA to protect the breakaway forces led by the much respected and charismatic Gen. Fidel Ramos. They came in droves unfazed by the battle tanks of Gen. Fabian Ver, the Marcos berdugo. This would not have happened were it not for the seething anger against the decades-long oppression by the dictatorship and the people's patience reaching its breaking point.

Hovering over these events was a figure that would stamp its legitimacy on the EDSA People Power 1986 — the housewife Cory, the widow of the slain martyr.

The military and police components today are similarly polarized. As to the segments of the civilian population, Marcos has retained the loyalty of the Ilocanos in the North where their political dynasty and its tentacles reign supreme. And he may have the loyalty of the oligarchy and the elite. But these are opportunists with their fealty, transitory. And the Americans as usual will stand and watch as the weathervane perpetually points to their self-interest. China's position on all these developments is irrelevant. Its bromance with Duterte has long lost its luster with EDCA bases and the missiles now in place.

Duterte's fledgling dynasty exists only in Davao and his sons do not inspire. The one true heir to his legacy, VP Sara, may be impeached over her indiscretions on her own anomalies but could still claim fidelity from Davaoeños and the Muslims in Mindanao.

The Tagalogs, the Bicolanos, the Visayans may not be as responsive. Thus, Colonel Babes' pronouncement that "demographics may spell the difference."

Are the elements for a revolution valid? We the people — not necessarily pro-Marcos or pro-Duterte who have weakened each other — must control this narrative.

Then act we must!

The Senate President crowed yesterday that the party he nominally coheads, PDP-Laban, has a “pleasant problem” — too many potential senatorial candidates. Koko Pimentel’s estimate is they have up to 20 possible choices for the 12-person slate for the 2019 senatorial race. But his list includes the five administration-affiliated senatorial incumbents up for reelection next year. This is a group that has made noises that, much as it prefers to remain in the administration camp, it is unhappy with the way PDP-Laban has been designating its local leaders and candidates, and therefore prefers to strike out on its own, perhaps in alliance with the other administration (regional) party, Hugpong ng Pagbabago, headed by the President’s daughter and current Davao City mayor, Sara Duterte.

Setting aside, then, the five-person “Force,” the administration-oriented but not PDP-friendly reelectionists (Nancy Binay, Sonny Angara, Cynthia Villar, Grace Poe, and JV Ejercito), what Koko’s crowing over is a mixed bag. Some of them have been floated by Speaker Pantaleon Alvarez (with whom Mayor Duterte clashed in recent months): six representatives (Gloria Macapagal Arroyo who is in her last term in the House of Representatives; Albee Benitez, Karlo Nograles, Rey Umali, Geraldine Roman, and Zajid Mangudadatu), three Cabinet members (Bong Go, Harry Roque, and Francis Tolentino), and two other officials (Mocha Uson and Ronald dela Rosa), which still only adds up to 11 possible candidates (who are the missing three?).

Of all of these, the “Force” reelectionists are only fair-weather allies of the present dispensation; their setting themselves apart is about much more than the mess PDP-Laban made in, say, San Juan where support for the Zamoras makes it extremely unattractive for JV Ejercito to consider being in the same slate. Their cohesion is about thinking ahead: Creating the nucleus for the main coalition to beat in the 2022 presidential election. The contingent of congressmen and congresswomen who could become candidates for the Senate, however, seems more a means to kick the Speaker’s rivals upstairs (at least in the case of Benitez and Arroyo) and pad the candidates’ list with token but sacrificial candidates, a similar situation to the executive officials being mentioned as possible candidates (of the executive officials, only Go seems viable, but making him run would deprive the President of the man who actually runs the executive department, and would be a clear signal that the administration is shifting to a post-term protection attitude instead of the more ambitious system-change mode it’s been on, so far).

Vice President Leni Robredo has been more circumspect, saying she’s not sure the Liberal Party can even muster a full slate. The party chair, Kiko Pangilinan, denied that a list circulating online (incumbent Bam Aquino, former senators Mar Roxas, Jun Magsaysay, TG Guingona, current and former representatives Jose Christopher Belmonte, Kaka Bag-ao, Edcel Lagman, Raul Daza, Gary Alejano and Erin Tañada, former governor Eddie Panlilio and Cebu City Mayor Tomas Osmeña) had any basis in fact.

What both lists have in common is they could be surveys-on-the-cheap, trial balloons to get the public pulse. Until the 17th Congress reconvenes briefly from May 14 to June 1 for the tail end of its second regular session (only to adjourn sine die until the third regular session begins on July 23), it has nothing much to do. Except, that is, for the barangay elections in May, after a last-ditch effort by the House to postpone them yet again to October failed.

Names can be floated but the real signal will come in July, when the President mounts the rostrum and calls for the big push for a new constitution—or not. Connected to this would be whether the Supreme Court disposes of its own chief, which would spare the Senate—and thus, free up the legislative calendar—to consider Charter change instead of an impeachment trial. In the meantime, what congressmen do seem abuzz over is an unrefusable invitation to the Palace tomorrow — to mark Arroyo’s birthday. An event possibly pregnant with meaning.

“Then I fall to my knees, shake a rattle at the skies and I’m afraid that I’ll be taken, abandoned, forsaken in her cold coffee eyes.” – A quote from the song, “She moves on” by Paul Simon, singer/songwriter

THE recent tremors affecting the central provinces of Mindanao caused by a series of seismic waves radiating to the northern and southern parts of the island, were like nature shaking a rattle, emitting sharp sounds and unnerving motions from the underground, both frightening and bewildering as to the intensity and confusion they generated.

The successive earthquakes and aftershocks were rattling the nerves not only of residents close to the epicenter but also those living along the active fault planes who were not used to strong earth movements. Some reported dizziness, anxiety, depression and other post-traumatic stress symptoms after experiencing continuous shaking and periodic vibrations.

As this article was written, less frequent but perceptible tremors were felt on the affected areas although everyone is reportedly bracing for aftershocks which many hope and pray, would not turn out to be the dreaded “big one,” as some irresponsible persons are falsely posting on social media. Shake a rattle drum to this latter blokes.

According to Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs), since the 1900s, Mindanao has been rocked by at least 35 earthquakes, three of which, felt at “Intensity 7” or worse, were deemed destructive: the 1976 Moro Gulf earthquake which caused a tsunami reaching up to nine meters that killed about 8,000 people including the unaccounted ones; the 1999 series of earthquakes in Agusan del Sur damaging roads, and poorly constructed schools and infrastructure; and the Sultan Kudarat earthquake in 2002, killing eight people with 41 others injured and affecting over seven thousand families in the provinces of Sarangani, North and South Cotabato (Rappler 2019). Shake a rattle of prayers for all who perished in these tragedies.

The series of earthquakes in October of this year, just weeks apart, with magnitudes of over 6 hitting many provinces, again, in Cotabato and southern parts of Davao accounted for the death toll of 22, damaging homes, school buildings and many infrastructure, shaking and sending chills to many residents who have to deal with continuing albeit smaller tremors which can be felt as far up the city of Cagayan de Oro and down the southern province of Sarangani.

Some local officials reported residents having developed “earthquake phobia” keeping watch on their clock hanging inside their tents in evacuation sites, losing sleep with anxiety awaiting when the next tremor would be coming. With frayed nerves, some would panic over even slight ground shakings.

But this is not about the temblor as much as the response of people and the country’s leaders and responsible officials. Except for the government of China which donated P22 million in aid and support for relief efforts in Mindanao, hurray for China, other foreign countries just expressed condolences and messages of sympathy to families of victims. No pledges, no assistance. Perhaps, they can’t trust our government agencies to do the job for them anymore. To them, a shake of the baby rattle.

To the initial bunch of donors who immediately come with their financial assistance such as Yorme Isko Moreno of Manila with his P5 million personal money, Mayor Vico Sotto with relief goods and P14 million coming from the people of Pasig City, Mayor Marcy Teodoro of Marikina with 100 modular tents, movie star Angel Locsin who moved about sans fanfare for her charity work offering food and other assistance to victims in Davao and North Cotabato, to Mayor Inday Duterte for relief distribution, Cebu provincial government for disaster relief campaign and to the many nameless others who came with their relief aids, shake a rattle of joy and thankfulness for their kindness and generosity.

To our government officials and politicians goes our appeal to set aside politics, distribute the relief items according to the wishes of their donors and not allow goods to rot because of political colors as was shown in the previous administration’s handling of donated goods. To them, shake a rattle of enlightenment and peace.

In whatever disaster or crisis that befalls the country, trust Filipinos’ resiliency and coping mechanisms such as resorting to prayers and humor to come to their succor.

Social media become a natural venue for memes, practical jokes and bantering such as the ones which came after Pastor Apollo C. Quiboloy reportedly claimed that he caused to stop the earthquakes so they can no longer create damage. To everyone, shake a rattle of laughter and fun while we help provide for the needs of our less fortunate brethren in Cotabato and Davao provinces.