WHILE this column is being written, Biden announced he is out of the presidential race. By this act, he alters the dynamics of American politics in favor of the Democrats. Trump, Speaker Johnson and the leaders of the GOP are in a panic. But the MAGA and the "baskets of deplorables" will fail to appreciate the ramifications of this tectonic political shift.

But I am way ahead of my narrative. Let me lay the predicate — from the viewpoint of an outsider looking into American electoral politics.

Yes, it is puzzling and impossible to digest after Trump's full three-week run of good fortune starting on June 27. From that fateful debate, where Biden's mental lapses hidden from the public have been exposed as he performed well below expectation, overshadowing Trump's lies and fraudulent claims on how good his economic record during his presidency was. The week's hot streak for Trump continued with the Supreme Court granting him near-total immunity for his official presidential acts and Judge Aileen Cannon's dismissing Trump's criminal case on charges that he illegally retained classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago club. Fate seemed to have conspired as the week culminated with Trump's surviving an assassination attempt a few days before the GOP convention that marked him "God's anointed one." It was this brush with death and his iconic photographs of him pumping fists that formed the backdrop and the lead intro to his dramatic entrance at the convention. There, in Milwaukee, the enthronement of a convicted felon was consummated. And the Republican party transformed itself into a cult of personality. The capture of the once venerable conservative political party of Lincoln, undoubtedly one of the greatest American presidents, was total.

Witness the delegates wearing bandages on their right ears as a mark of devotion to the new messiah, which can be construed too as a "stigma diabolicum" — the mark of the devil as in the days of witchcraft. The GOP four-day coven also brought in line the heretics who displayed total supplication to Trump. Nikki Haley, Trump's erstwhile primary opponent who declared earlier shefelt no need to kiss the ring, delivered a rousing speech endorsing Trump. But the prize goes to Trump's VP choice — JD Vance who was the epitome of hypocrisy. He was on record declaring that "I'm never a Trump guy, never liked him, a terrible candidate... idiot if you voted for him... might be America's Hitler... an a**hole." And he bent his knee.

The anomaly these past weeks was that after the debate, the onus fell on Biden to prove his capability for the US presidency despite his excellent record compared to Trump's failed presidency on the economy, the handling of Covid and a host of other metrics. This was exacerbated by the Democrats' penchant for committing "hara-kiri," clamoring for his replacement after a single debacle of a debate. But this could be a blessing in disguise. There was no clamor for Trump, whom the Republican Lincoln Project members have dubbed as authoritarian-prone and a dangerous man, unfit for the US presidency.

Silver lining for Democrats

Jonathan Freedland, a British journalist writing for The Guardian, opined (July 19, 2024): "Donald Trump's run of good luck could end this weekend — if Joe Biden does the right thing." And the right thing is for Biden to make the supreme sacrifice for America — by giving way to any of the leading lights in the Democratic Party. Freedland's thesis is that Trump's entire campaign has been predicated on Biden as his opponent. Trump and MAGA's strategy is Biden-specific, framing the campaign between the weak old Biden against Trump.

Now that Biden is out, the Democrats have little more than 100 days — enough time to wrest the initiative from Trump. Freedland sees three campaign-altering scenarios. First, media attention will shift to the Democrats speculating on a younger nominee, not necessarily Kamala Harris. And the limelight shifting away from Trump is hurtful to this narcissistic megalomaniac. This leads to the second consequence, negating Trump's argument of his running against a senile opponent — making Trump the oldest cognitively impaired candidate. The third scenario is this new Democratic kid in the block will take the wind out of the sails of Trump's anti-incumbency "change message" or "pagbabago" (in Filipino). And I may add a fourth element. The pressure to replace the other senile old man becomes palpable.

The polls would be upended, portraying a different voting profile. Americans have long been torn between two senile men. No longer! The choice would now shift to Trump, himself a senile old man, against any younger Democrat.

Throwing a Hail Mary

This act by Biden will be more than familiar to football-loving Americans. With 100 days to go, a newly invigorated Democratic team is throwing a Hail Mary pass. After months of the GOP/Democrats fight that showed the American people and the world how insanely competitive elections are in the United States — like a football game running out of minutes — it is coming to a deadly end. Wikipedia defines a Hail Mary pass as "a very long forward pass, typically made in desperation, with an exceptionally small chance of achieving a completion with seconds to spare. Due to the difficulty of completion with this pass, it makes reference to the Catholic "Hail Mary" prayer for strength and help."

"The expression goes back to the 1930s when it was used publicly by two former members of the Notre Dame team. Originally meaning any sort of desperation play, a Hail Mary pass gradually came to denote a long, low-probability pass attempted at the end of a half when a team is too far from the end zone to execute a more conventional play, implying that it would take a miracle for the play to succeed. This pass could produce the game-winning touchdown."

The term became widespread after an NFL playoff game on Dec. 28, 1975, when Dallas Cowboys quarterback Roger Staubach said about his game-winning touchdown pass to wide receiver Drew Pearson, "I closed my eyes and said a Hail Mary."

Going back to the GOP, the MAGA and the unthinking cult, how long will the euphoria of the debate, the court rulings favoring Trump and the afterglow of the failed assassination last and dominate the psyche of the American voters? It could be ephemeral for the independents, the Democrats, and the American people. These people think and vote!

Freedland's closing statement: "The stakes are too high, for the US and the world, to let Democrats cede the 2024 contest to Trump, which is what a continued Biden candidacy would do. The hope is that Biden himself reaches that conclusion... and performs what will be his last great act of public service (and he did — author's note). Because whatever the Republican faithful may say, this decision is not in the hands of the Almighty — it is in the hands of human beings who, whatever their fears and frailties, need to act and act now."

Biden, you've done great service to America. This Hail Mary pass could be the perfect strategy!

The Senate President crowed yesterday that the party he nominally coheads, PDP-Laban, has a “pleasant problem” — too many potential senatorial candidates. Koko Pimentel’s estimate is they have up to 20 possible choices for the 12-person slate for the 2019 senatorial race. But his list includes the five administration-affiliated senatorial incumbents up for reelection next year. This is a group that has made noises that, much as it prefers to remain in the administration camp, it is unhappy with the way PDP-Laban has been designating its local leaders and candidates, and therefore prefers to strike out on its own, perhaps in alliance with the other administration (regional) party, Hugpong ng Pagbabago, headed by the President’s daughter and current Davao City mayor, Sara Duterte.

Setting aside, then, the five-person “Force,” the administration-oriented but not PDP-friendly reelectionists (Nancy Binay, Sonny Angara, Cynthia Villar, Grace Poe, and JV Ejercito), what Koko’s crowing over is a mixed bag. Some of them have been floated by Speaker Pantaleon Alvarez (with whom Mayor Duterte clashed in recent months): six representatives (Gloria Macapagal Arroyo who is in her last term in the House of Representatives; Albee Benitez, Karlo Nograles, Rey Umali, Geraldine Roman, and Zajid Mangudadatu), three Cabinet members (Bong Go, Harry Roque, and Francis Tolentino), and two other officials (Mocha Uson and Ronald dela Rosa), which still only adds up to 11 possible candidates (who are the missing three?).

Of all of these, the “Force” reelectionists are only fair-weather allies of the present dispensation; their setting themselves apart is about much more than the mess PDP-Laban made in, say, San Juan where support for the Zamoras makes it extremely unattractive for JV Ejercito to consider being in the same slate. Their cohesion is about thinking ahead: Creating the nucleus for the main coalition to beat in the 2022 presidential election. The contingent of congressmen and congresswomen who could become candidates for the Senate, however, seems more a means to kick the Speaker’s rivals upstairs (at least in the case of Benitez and Arroyo) and pad the candidates’ list with token but sacrificial candidates, a similar situation to the executive officials being mentioned as possible candidates (of the executive officials, only Go seems viable, but making him run would deprive the President of the man who actually runs the executive department, and would be a clear signal that the administration is shifting to a post-term protection attitude instead of the more ambitious system-change mode it’s been on, so far).

Vice President Leni Robredo has been more circumspect, saying she’s not sure the Liberal Party can even muster a full slate. The party chair, Kiko Pangilinan, denied that a list circulating online (incumbent Bam Aquino, former senators Mar Roxas, Jun Magsaysay, TG Guingona, current and former representatives Jose Christopher Belmonte, Kaka Bag-ao, Edcel Lagman, Raul Daza, Gary Alejano and Erin Tañada, former governor Eddie Panlilio and Cebu City Mayor Tomas Osmeña) had any basis in fact.

What both lists have in common is they could be surveys-on-the-cheap, trial balloons to get the public pulse. Until the 17th Congress reconvenes briefly from May 14 to June 1 for the tail end of its second regular session (only to adjourn sine die until the third regular session begins on July 23), it has nothing much to do. Except, that is, for the barangay elections in May, after a last-ditch effort by the House to postpone them yet again to October failed.

Names can be floated but the real signal will come in July, when the President mounts the rostrum and calls for the big push for a new constitution—or not. Connected to this would be whether the Supreme Court disposes of its own chief, which would spare the Senate—and thus, free up the legislative calendar—to consider Charter change instead of an impeachment trial. In the meantime, what congressmen do seem abuzz over is an unrefusable invitation to the Palace tomorrow — to mark Arroyo’s birthday. An event possibly pregnant with meaning.

“Then I fall to my knees, shake a rattle at the skies and I’m afraid that I’ll be taken, abandoned, forsaken in her cold coffee eyes.” – A quote from the song, “She moves on” by Paul Simon, singer/songwriter

THE recent tremors affecting the central provinces of Mindanao caused by a series of seismic waves radiating to the northern and southern parts of the island, were like nature shaking a rattle, emitting sharp sounds and unnerving motions from the underground, both frightening and bewildering as to the intensity and confusion they generated.

The successive earthquakes and aftershocks were rattling the nerves not only of residents close to the epicenter but also those living along the active fault planes who were not used to strong earth movements. Some reported dizziness, anxiety, depression and other post-traumatic stress symptoms after experiencing continuous shaking and periodic vibrations.

As this article was written, less frequent but perceptible tremors were felt on the affected areas although everyone is reportedly bracing for aftershocks which many hope and pray, would not turn out to be the dreaded “big one,” as some irresponsible persons are falsely posting on social media. Shake a rattle drum to this latter blokes.

According to Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs), since the 1900s, Mindanao has been rocked by at least 35 earthquakes, three of which, felt at “Intensity 7” or worse, were deemed destructive: the 1976 Moro Gulf earthquake which caused a tsunami reaching up to nine meters that killed about 8,000 people including the unaccounted ones; the 1999 series of earthquakes in Agusan del Sur damaging roads, and poorly constructed schools and infrastructure; and the Sultan Kudarat earthquake in 2002, killing eight people with 41 others injured and affecting over seven thousand families in the provinces of Sarangani, North and South Cotabato (Rappler 2019). Shake a rattle of prayers for all who perished in these tragedies.

The series of earthquakes in October of this year, just weeks apart, with magnitudes of over 6 hitting many provinces, again, in Cotabato and southern parts of Davao accounted for the death toll of 22, damaging homes, school buildings and many infrastructure, shaking and sending chills to many residents who have to deal with continuing albeit smaller tremors which can be felt as far up the city of Cagayan de Oro and down the southern province of Sarangani.

Some local officials reported residents having developed “earthquake phobia” keeping watch on their clock hanging inside their tents in evacuation sites, losing sleep with anxiety awaiting when the next tremor would be coming. With frayed nerves, some would panic over even slight ground shakings.

But this is not about the temblor as much as the response of people and the country’s leaders and responsible officials. Except for the government of China which donated P22 million in aid and support for relief efforts in Mindanao, hurray for China, other foreign countries just expressed condolences and messages of sympathy to families of victims. No pledges, no assistance. Perhaps, they can’t trust our government agencies to do the job for them anymore. To them, a shake of the baby rattle.

To the initial bunch of donors who immediately come with their financial assistance such as Yorme Isko Moreno of Manila with his P5 million personal money, Mayor Vico Sotto with relief goods and P14 million coming from the people of Pasig City, Mayor Marcy Teodoro of Marikina with 100 modular tents, movie star Angel Locsin who moved about sans fanfare for her charity work offering food and other assistance to victims in Davao and North Cotabato, to Mayor Inday Duterte for relief distribution, Cebu provincial government for disaster relief campaign and to the many nameless others who came with their relief aids, shake a rattle of joy and thankfulness for their kindness and generosity.

To our government officials and politicians goes our appeal to set aside politics, distribute the relief items according to the wishes of their donors and not allow goods to rot because of political colors as was shown in the previous administration’s handling of donated goods. To them, shake a rattle of enlightenment and peace.

In whatever disaster or crisis that befalls the country, trust Filipinos’ resiliency and coping mechanisms such as resorting to prayers and humor to come to their succor.

Social media become a natural venue for memes, practical jokes and bantering such as the ones which came after Pastor Apollo C. Quiboloy reportedly claimed that he caused to stop the earthquakes so they can no longer create damage. To everyone, shake a rattle of laughter and fun while we help provide for the needs of our less fortunate brethren in Cotabato and Davao provinces.