Last of a series

THE previous three installments of this series dissected how Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu precipitated the Iran war. On the surface, Netanyahu’s influence over Trump offered a masterful study of the puppeteer’s craft. Yet, at a deeper level, the conflict served as a seminar on how both the marionette and the puppeteer were, in bizarre ways, being managed by a far more adept actor: Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). It was, quite simply, a masterclass in “calculated silence.”

As we conclude this series on the Iran war, it is becoming increasingly clear that we are not just witnessing a military confrontation; we are watching the final resolution of a 45-year struggle for regional supremacy. And the victor isn’t the one who dropped the most bombs — it’s the one who had the most patience.

To fully appreciate the current situation, the antecedent of the Iran war needs to be reviewed in the light of Saudi’s role in it. The relationship between Saudi and Iran is best described as a longstanding rivalry with occasional attempts at détente.

For decades, the two have competed for power and influence in the Middle East, driven by religious differences (Sunni vs Shia); and Saudi asserting its authority as Islam’s center of gravity, being the host of Islam’s two holiest sites, Mecca and Medina. The two countries’ political dynamics and oil politics are often in the opposing regional proxy conflicts in Yemen and Syria, with Iran funding Saudi’s adversaries, the Houthis and Hezbollah.

Iran has, therefore, been the ultimate barrier to Saudi’s regional hegemony in the Middle East. Saudi is the richest country in the region, has the best military money can buy. But more importantly, it has America for a friend with a leader that is corrupt and can be bought. And MBS has the genius, the talent and foresight to mold Trump’s role in his ambitions, as we shall soon see.

The art of the ‘outsourced war’

Today, MBS has executed the most daring geopolitical maneuver of the 21st century: he bought a war without ever having to declare one. He has managed to dismantle his greatest existential threat, Iran, while maintaining the posture of a neutral bystander, a diplomatic broker and a victim of aggression — all at the same time.

This conflict isn’t a new feud; it’s the fallout of a 2019 humiliation. When Iran crippled Saudi’s Abqaiq and Khurais processing facilities and the world stood still, MBS realized a direct war would incinerate his “Vision 2030” dreams and scare off every cent of global capital. So, he changed the game.

He stopped trying to be a traditional ally and started acting like an owner. By bypassing military experts and personally pumping billions into Washington — most notably the $2 billion “risk” handed to Jared Kushner’s fund — MBS didn’t just invest money; he bought influence. He bought a family dynasty!

This wasn’t lobbying; it was a pay-to-play masterstroke. By tethering the US military to Saudi interests through financial leverage, MBS turned a superpower into his personal guarantor. He didn’t need to fight Iran himself — he built a geopolitical trap that forced Washington to do it for him.

Geopolitical gaslighting

MBS executed a masterclass in geopolitical gaslighting, wearing a “neutral mask” while American jets dismantled Iran. Behind closed doors, he was the hawk lobbying for war; publicly, he was the “restrained” leader signaling peace to Tehran. In the Philippines, we call this “doble cara.”

This wasn’t indecision — it was strategic mastery. By remaining officially non-belligerent, he occupied three roles: the architect who pushed for the conflict, the victim absorbing collateral damage, and the peacemaker ready to broker the end of conflict.

By refusing to get his hands dirty, he avoided being cast as a combatant. Instead, he emerged as the indispensable power everyone must rely on to rebuild the Gulf. He didn’t just survive the war; he positioned himself to own the aftermath.

The war for the ‘jugular’

Iran then weaponized the Strait of Hormuz. By choking this 33 kilometer-wide lifeline, Tehran aimed to break Western resolve with $120-$150 per-barrel oil triggering a worldwide political crisis. Yet, the cold math favors Riyadh. (Read my TMT columns parts 1 to 3, March 18, 25 and April 1, 2026.)

The bypass routes built for such a contingency — the Abu Dhabi pipeline to Fujairah, can only handle a fraction of the Hormuz volume. While insufficient, Saudi’s $475 billion reserves and “swing” capacity make them the only stabilizer left. MBS is playing a high-stakes game: absorbing finite infrastructure hits while Iran’s military and economy are systematically dismantled.

Once the dust settles, Iran vanishes. Saudi Arabia won’t merely dominate oil; they will be the sole guarantor of regional security by enduring the short-term chaos. When global powers beg for order, MBS remains the gatekeeper.

Cold-blooded intramural rivalry

MBS didn’t just target enemies; he neutralized his neighbors. By allowing the conflict to boil over, he watched the UAE’s reputation for invulnerability go up in smoke. Iranian missile strikes proved Dubai’s “safe haven” was an illusion. When the dust settles, investors won’t seek flashy skyscrapers — they’ll seek the strongest power left. With the Emirates tarnished and Iran ruined, MBS has cleared the field to become the Gulf’s undisputed hegemon. It is a hostile takeover.

Soft power and the battle for the Islamic soul

In this final, most calculated layer of the conflict, the battlefield shifted from the economic to the sacred. The “battle for the Islamic soul” reached fever pitch when Iranian missile shrapnel rained down on Jerusalem, dangerously close to the Al-Aqsa Mosque. For MBS, this was a geopolitical windfall.

For decades, Tehran has marketed itself as the revolutionary defender of Islam’s holy sites. However, the optics of Iranian fire threatening the third holiest site shattered that narrative instantly. While Iran appeared reckless, Saudi Arabia — the guardian of Mecca and Medina — maintained its mask as the “restrained adult.”

MBS didn’t need a propaganda campaign; the images of Iranian missiles over Al-Aqsa did the work for him. By staying silent while its rival endangered the faith’s heritage, Riyadh secured a decisive symbolic victory. This was the ultimate theological checkmate, positioning Saudi Arabia as the only legitimate leader of the Islamic world while Tehran’s credibility crumbled in the soot of its own missiles.

The inevitable conclusion

As the ceasefire nears, the Middle East is fundamentally re-engineered. Iran is broken, its proxies are toothless, and a massive power vacuum has opened that only the Saudi capital can fill.

MBS has achieved total rehabilitation. The former pariah — in the wake of the Khashoggi incident — is now the indispensable statesman, wielding a $930 billion checkbook to rebuild the region. He is betting that the world’s hunger for stability will forget how this fire started — positioning himself as the architect of the fire department rather than the arsonist.

This wasn’t just a war; it was a coronation. By letting others pull the trigger while maintaining “restraint,” MBS proved that patience is deadlier than missiles. The gap between him and his rivals is now an unbridgeable chasm.

The Senate President crowed yesterday that the party he nominally coheads, PDP-Laban, has a “pleasant problem” — too many potential senatorial candidates. Koko Pimentel’s estimate is they have up to 20 possible choices for the 12-person slate for the 2019 senatorial race. But his list includes the five administration-affiliated senatorial incumbents up for reelection next year. This is a group that has made noises that, much as it prefers to remain in the administration camp, it is unhappy with the way PDP-Laban has been designating its local leaders and candidates, and therefore prefers to strike out on its own, perhaps in alliance with the other administration (regional) party, Hugpong ng Pagbabago, headed by the President’s daughter and current Davao City mayor, Sara Duterte.

Setting aside, then, the five-person “Force,” the administration-oriented but not PDP-friendly reelectionists (Nancy Binay, Sonny Angara, Cynthia Villar, Grace Poe, and JV Ejercito), what Koko’s crowing over is a mixed bag. Some of them have been floated by Speaker Pantaleon Alvarez (with whom Mayor Duterte clashed in recent months): six representatives (Gloria Macapagal Arroyo who is in her last term in the House of Representatives; Albee Benitez, Karlo Nograles, Rey Umali, Geraldine Roman, and Zajid Mangudadatu), three Cabinet members (Bong Go, Harry Roque, and Francis Tolentino), and two other officials (Mocha Uson and Ronald dela Rosa), which still only adds up to 11 possible candidates (who are the missing three?).

Of all of these, the “Force” reelectionists are only fair-weather allies of the present dispensation; their setting themselves apart is about much more than the mess PDP-Laban made in, say, San Juan where support for the Zamoras makes it extremely unattractive for JV Ejercito to consider being in the same slate. Their cohesion is about thinking ahead: Creating the nucleus for the main coalition to beat in the 2022 presidential election. The contingent of congressmen and congresswomen who could become candidates for the Senate, however, seems more a means to kick the Speaker’s rivals upstairs (at least in the case of Benitez and Arroyo) and pad the candidates’ list with token but sacrificial candidates, a similar situation to the executive officials being mentioned as possible candidates (of the executive officials, only Go seems viable, but making him run would deprive the President of the man who actually runs the executive department, and would be a clear signal that the administration is shifting to a post-term protection attitude instead of the more ambitious system-change mode it’s been on, so far).

Vice President Leni Robredo has been more circumspect, saying she’s not sure the Liberal Party can even muster a full slate. The party chair, Kiko Pangilinan, denied that a list circulating online (incumbent Bam Aquino, former senators Mar Roxas, Jun Magsaysay, TG Guingona, current and former representatives Jose Christopher Belmonte, Kaka Bag-ao, Edcel Lagman, Raul Daza, Gary Alejano and Erin Tañada, former governor Eddie Panlilio and Cebu City Mayor Tomas Osmeña) had any basis in fact.

What both lists have in common is they could be surveys-on-the-cheap, trial balloons to get the public pulse. Until the 17th Congress reconvenes briefly from May 14 to June 1 for the tail end of its second regular session (only to adjourn sine die until the third regular session begins on July 23), it has nothing much to do. Except, that is, for the barangay elections in May, after a last-ditch effort by the House to postpone them yet again to October failed.

Names can be floated but the real signal will come in July, when the President mounts the rostrum and calls for the big push for a new constitution—or not. Connected to this would be whether the Supreme Court disposes of its own chief, which would spare the Senate—and thus, free up the legislative calendar—to consider Charter change instead of an impeachment trial. In the meantime, what congressmen do seem abuzz over is an unrefusable invitation to the Palace tomorrow — to mark Arroyo’s birthday. An event possibly pregnant with meaning.

Here’s a striking statement about love shared with me by an English college mentor. “Love knows no grammar. How it works can’t be measured by any parts or figures of speech. It goes beyond the literate and illiterate. The sad reality is that, even a fool who has got no philosophy is not spared of its harsh reality.” After almost three decades, I reminded him through a private message of his words. Here’s what he said. “Thank you, Jord. This statement about love is searing to the heart. And, yes, fools do fall for it too. But I thought that we as well speak of the beauty that it gives and not so much focus on the harsh realities. After all, our country has had enough of the negativities.” Thank you, dearest Sir Eugene.

In these decisive times when our nation trembles under the weight of corruption, inequality, and disillusionment, it is you―the youth, burning with idealism, courage, and an unyielding sense of right―who must stand at the forefront of CHANGE. The future of the Philippines hangs in the balance, calling not for silence or apathy, but for unity, conviction, and action. Let your dreams be the spark that ignites renewal; let your voices thunder against injustice; let your hands build the nation our forebears envisioned but never fulfilled. Now is the hour to awaken, to rise, and to lead the march toward a just and transformed Philippines.

Remember, the pages of our history resound with the triumphs of youth who dared to dream and act. From the Propagandists who wielded the pen against tyranny to the Katipuneros who took up arms for freedom, it was always the young who ignited revolutions and rebuilt nations. As Dr. Jose Rizal declared, “The youth is the hope of our motherland,” but that hope is not a gift to be passively claimed; it is a duty to be earned through courage and purpose.

Today’s generation must transform awareness into action―to confront corruption with integrity, to challenge inequality with empathy, and to counter apathy with participation. The time for mere commentary has passed. What the nation demands now is commitment, creativity, and collective resolve. When the youth stand united in conscience and conviction, no obstacle is insurmountable, no reform impossible. The power to redeem the nation’s promise lies not in the hands of the few, but in the awakened spirit of the many. Rise, therefore, as one generation with one objective―to forge a Philippines worthy of its people’s deepest hopes. And to those who were once the torchbearers of youth but have since laid down their fire―hear this call.

The nation does not forget its veterans of hope, those who once believed that change was possible but have since grown weary in the long twilight of disappointment. Thus far history grants no sanctuary to resignation. It demands of every generation the same unrelenting duty―to defend what is right, to confront what is wrong, and to labor still for what remains unfinished.

Now is the moment to rise again. Let not caution disguise itself as wisdom, nor comfort as peace. The courage that once stirred your youth still flickers within; rekindle it, and let it burn anew for the sake of those who follow. Your experience, tempered by time, must now join hands with the fervor of the young - to guide, to mentor, to strengthen.

Together, let the wisdom of the seasoned and the passion of the rising coalesce into a single, indomitable force for renewal. For the task of nation-building is not bound by age, but by conviction. The call of the motherland resounds to all who still believe that the story of the Filipino is not yet complete―and that redemption, though delayed, is still within our grasp if only we choose to act once more. And to those whose hands have long gripped the levers of power―hardened by privilege, dulled by entitlement―hear this with clarity: the era of self-preservation must yield to the dawn of selfless service.

The nation can no longer afford leaders who mistake possession for stewardship, nor governance for dominion. The time has come to relinquish the throne of complacency and make way for the custodians of vision, courage, and renewal.

To step aside is not to surrender, but to honor the sacred rhythm of nationhood―to allow new voices, new hearts, and new minds to breathe life into institutions that have grown stale from neglect. True leadership is an act of stewardship, and stewardship demands humility―to know when to lead, and when to pass the torch. Those who have ruled long enough must now become mentors, not masters; guides, not gatekeepers.

To the youth who will inherit this burden and blessing alike, the call is equally profound. Lead not with arrogance, but with awareness; not with impulse, but with integrity. Let optimism be your discipline―a conscious act of faith in the nation’s capacity to rise again. Lead with inclusivity that unites rather than divides, with courage that reforms rather than destroys, and with resilience that endures when hope seems frail.

For the measure of a new generation’s greatness lies not in its defiance alone, but in its wisdom to build where others have failed. Let your leadership become the living testament that the Philippines, once disillusioned, has learned at last to believe again―through you.

Now, the Filipino youth stand at a defining crossroad of history. The echoes of the past and the murmurs of the future converge upon this moment, and in your hands rests the fragile, however formidable promise of a nation reborn. You are the inheritors of unfinished dreams and the architects of what is yet to be. United in thought and deed, strengthened by the wisdom of history and the fire of conviction, you possess the power to shape a Philippines anchored in justice, animated by democracy, and sustained by the collective flourishing of its people.

The mantle of responsibility has passed to you. Do not falter beneath its weight; bear it with courage, for it is through your resolve that the nation will rise from the ruins of complacency. Let your unity transcend boundaries of region, class, and creed. Let your integrity redefine leadership, and your compassion restore faith in the Filipino spirit.

This is your hour. Let this narrative be not merely a call to awaken, but a solemn commitment―to the country that nurtures you, to the people who believe in you, and to the generations who will follow your example. Stand firm, for you are the heartbeat of a nation yearning to live with dignity once more. Speak right and shine!

Rise, Filipino youth, and let history remember that when your time came ―you stood unwavering, and the nation moved forward.