WHILE this column is being written, Biden announced he is out of the presidential race. By this act, he alters the dynamics of American politics in favor of the Democrats. Trump, Speaker Johnson and the leaders of the GOP are in a panic. But the MAGA and the "baskets of deplorables" will fail to appreciate the ramifications of this tectonic political shift.
But I am way ahead of my narrative. Let me lay the predicate — from the viewpoint of an outsider looking into American electoral politics.
Yes, it is puzzling and impossible to digest after Trump's full three-week run of good fortune starting on June 27. From that fateful debate, where Biden's mental lapses hidden from the public have been exposed as he performed well below expectation, overshadowing Trump's lies and fraudulent claims on how good his economic record during his presidency was. The week's hot streak for Trump continued with the Supreme Court granting him near-total immunity for his official presidential acts and Judge Aileen Cannon's dismissing Trump's criminal case on charges that he illegally retained classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago club. Fate seemed to have conspired as the week culminated with Trump's surviving an assassination attempt a few days before the GOP convention that marked him "God's anointed one." It was this brush with death and his iconic photographs of him pumping fists that formed the backdrop and the lead intro to his dramatic entrance at the convention. There, in Milwaukee, the enthronement of a convicted felon was consummated. And the Republican party transformed itself into a cult of personality. The capture of the once venerable conservative political party of Lincoln, undoubtedly one of the greatest American presidents, was total.
Witness the delegates wearing bandages on their right ears as a mark of devotion to the new messiah, which can be construed too as a "stigma diabolicum" — the mark of the devil as in the days of witchcraft. The GOP four-day coven also brought in line the heretics who displayed total supplication to Trump. Nikki Haley, Trump's erstwhile primary opponent who declared earlier shefelt no need to kiss the ring, delivered a rousing speech endorsing Trump. But the prize goes to Trump's VP choice — JD Vance who was the epitome of hypocrisy. He was on record declaring that "I'm never a Trump guy, never liked him, a terrible candidate... idiot if you voted for him... might be America's Hitler... an a**hole." And he bent his knee.
The anomaly these past weeks was that after the debate, the onus fell on Biden to prove his capability for the US presidency despite his excellent record compared to Trump's failed presidency on the economy, the handling of Covid and a host of other metrics. This was exacerbated by the Democrats' penchant for committing "hara-kiri," clamoring for his replacement after a single debacle of a debate. But this could be a blessing in disguise. There was no clamor for Trump, whom the Republican Lincoln Project members have dubbed as authoritarian-prone and a dangerous man, unfit for the US presidency.
Silver lining for Democrats
Jonathan Freedland, a British journalist writing for The Guardian, opined (July 19, 2024): "Donald Trump's run of good luck could end this weekend — if Joe Biden does the right thing." And the right thing is for Biden to make the supreme sacrifice for America — by giving way to any of the leading lights in the Democratic Party. Freedland's thesis is that Trump's entire campaign has been predicated on Biden as his opponent. Trump and MAGA's strategy is Biden-specific, framing the campaign between the weak old Biden against Trump.
Now that Biden is out, the Democrats have little more than 100 days — enough time to wrest the initiative from Trump. Freedland sees three campaign-altering scenarios. First, media attention will shift to the Democrats speculating on a younger nominee, not necessarily Kamala Harris. And the limelight shifting away from Trump is hurtful to this narcissistic megalomaniac. This leads to the second consequence, negating Trump's argument of his running against a senile opponent — making Trump the oldest cognitively impaired candidate. The third scenario is this new Democratic kid in the block will take the wind out of the sails of Trump's anti-incumbency "change message" or "pagbabago" (in Filipino). And I may add a fourth element. The pressure to replace the other senile old man becomes palpable.
The polls would be upended, portraying a different voting profile. Americans have long been torn between two senile men. No longer! The choice would now shift to Trump, himself a senile old man, against any younger Democrat.
Throwing a Hail Mary
This act by Biden will be more than familiar to football-loving Americans. With 100 days to go, a newly invigorated Democratic team is throwing a Hail Mary pass. After months of the GOP/Democrats fight that showed the American people and the world how insanely competitive elections are in the United States — like a football game running out of minutes — it is coming to a deadly end. Wikipedia defines a Hail Mary pass as "a very long forward pass, typically made in desperation, with an exceptionally small chance of achieving a completion with seconds to spare. Due to the difficulty of completion with this pass, it makes reference to the Catholic "Hail Mary" prayer for strength and help."
"The expression goes back to the 1930s when it was used publicly by two former members of the Notre Dame team. Originally meaning any sort of desperation play, a Hail Mary pass gradually came to denote a long, low-probability pass attempted at the end of a half when a team is too far from the end zone to execute a more conventional play, implying that it would take a miracle for the play to succeed. This pass could produce the game-winning touchdown."
The term became widespread after an NFL playoff game on Dec. 28, 1975, when Dallas Cowboys quarterback Roger Staubach said about his game-winning touchdown pass to wide receiver Drew Pearson, "I closed my eyes and said a Hail Mary."
Going back to the GOP, the MAGA and the unthinking cult, how long will the euphoria of the debate, the court rulings favoring Trump and the afterglow of the failed assassination last and dominate the psyche of the American voters? It could be ephemeral for the independents, the Democrats, and the American people. These people think and vote!
Freedland's closing statement: "The stakes are too high, for the US and the world, to let Democrats cede the 2024 contest to Trump, which is what a continued Biden candidacy would do. The hope is that Biden himself reaches that conclusion... and performs what will be his last great act of public service (and he did — author's note). Because whatever the Republican faithful may say, this decision is not in the hands of the Almighty — it is in the hands of human beings who, whatever their fears and frailties, need to act and act now."
Biden, you've done great service to America. This Hail Mary pass could be the perfect strategy!
