Tuesday, 07 March 2017 10:05

Multiplier effect

DAVAO is “three times bigger than Metro Manila, six times the size of Cebu, one of the largest metropolitan areas not just in Asia but in the world.” Today, it is the unofficial capital of the country. The Davao formula was for the mayor to handle peace and order, use political will to build the city, and the local bureaucracy to attend to the rest. Can this formula be scaled up to the whole of the country?

To a certain degree, yes, in terms of peace and order and infrastructure development. The other side of which is, no, because you have an unwieldy legislature trying to curry favor with PRRD (death penalty for illegal drugs?) or launch diatribes against him (EJK, Matobato, undeclared wealth, Lascañas and every anomalous act is labeled as done by Duterte). The 17th Congress in fact has just enacted two bills into law: the General Appropriations Act, or the national budget, and the postponement of the barangay elections. There are no super majorities because if there were, the legislative agenda of the President would have been on track.

PRRD has convened the Legislative Executive Development Advisory Council (LEDAC) and the chambers have crafted their own agenda. A common legislative agenda is said to be in the final drafting. Though we can do without more laws considering there are laws that have not been implemented fully and there are unfunded mandates, we need more and more for Congress to exercise its oversight function over the Executive and Judicial branches if it is to help PRRD in his effort to pursue reforms.

In a study done by the Congressional Policy and Budget Reform Department of the House of Representatives, there are “62 laws [that]remained partially funded while 75 laws were not funded at all as of 15 October 2015. Unfunded laws grew by 127.3 percent from 33 in 2007 to 75 in 2015, while partially funded laws grew even higher by 376.9 percent from 13 to 62 in the same period.” These laws amounted to “P367.3 billion. Of this amount, only P242.1 billion was allocated, leaving a funding deficiency of P125.2 billion.” Unbelievably, “the House committee on oversight (13th Congress) which made an inventory of unfunded laws even indicated that two laws enacted by the First Philippine Republic—the Friars Lands Act (1904) and Cadastral Survey Act (1913)—were not implemented because they required a huge funding of P1.5 billion.”

So if Congress can’t act as a direct partner to PRRD on infrastructure development and decides to use their pork for the innocuous projects that do not build a nation, then PRRD and his political will should push the envelope daily until such becomes the bureaucratic discipline. Why? Because doing infrastructure development is the way to respond to some promises of the President: inclusive growth, lowering poverty by the end of his term, providing jobs and bringing sunshine (economic activities) to the poorest provinces.

With political will, PRRD can connect the 7,641 islands by a system of airports, ports, bridges and rails. The bridges can be tourist attractions just like the bridges in Porto, Portugal. Porto is the second largest city after Lisbon and it has a mixed transport system of bus, rails, trams and subways. One can do a tour of the Duoro river and see the different designs of the bridges; some are modern while others are historical in make and design. If PRRD can implement Build.Build.Build and other infrastructure plans every year in the three islands of the country then we would have done much, much more than any administration has.

The nautical highway of then PGMA must be continued and further developed. Just look at the development it brought to Roxas, Oriental Mindoro. Roxas, the smallest municipality of the province, was a sleepy, fourth-class municipality. Today, it is a place of heightened economic activities because of the nautical highway, connecting its port to the famous destination, Boracay. Today, it is a second-class municipality from being a pass-through from Batangas to the Calapan piers and to Caticlan, Aklan.

The underlying reason for pushing for Build.Build.Build is that of the so-called multiplier effect. We can be competitive at the end of PRRD’s term if we are able to launch and implement the infrastructure plan. The multiplier effect is “an increase in income generated by an increase in spending,” which should be part of our national conversation. Such conversation should not settle for mere infra for infra sake but “wise” infra investment. The qualifier “wise” refers to projects that fill a need of the community they serve and which are economically viable. A key lesson is that “projects that have a lot of private capital behind them would have the biggest impact because more often than not they won’t be a road to nowhere.”

Further, it has been a settled model that “an additional 1 percent of GDP invested in transport and communications on a sustained basis increases the GDP per capita growth rate by 0.6 percent. “Productivity growth— and therefore competitiveness—is higher in countries with an adequate supply of infrastructure services.” So, we can even pursue a smart infrastructure development of a mix of hard and soft infra with ICT merged to it to create a resilient Philippines.

Clark should therefore be made as the main gateway, with Subic and Batangas designated as alternative, complementary ports to Manila. Clark and Subic should serve the northern part of Luzon while the south (CALABARZON) can be served by Sangley airport and port system. NAIA can be dedicated to the 12 million residents of Metro Manila. A tri-airport system in Luzon unclogs the bottlenecks of Metro Manila and spurs development from center to the peripheries.

Our unique geography, between East and West, allows us to be a competitive logistics hub. In a Transport Intelligence Report (TIR) in 2015 estimated “Philippine logistics to triple to P326 billion by 2020 from the present P100 billion.” TIR said that by 2020, based on low 11 percent compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) and high of 18 percent CAGR growth scenarios, the logistics market is forecasted to reach P204 billion (low) to P326 billion (high).

The forward linkage index of the Philippine logistics industry as of 2011 was placed at 1.4, the lowest in Southeast Asia, compared to Indonesia, 2.1; Thailand, 2.73; Cambodia, 2.48; Vietnam, 2.64; Thailand, 2.73 and Malaysia, 4.03. Based on the study, logistics’ multiplier effect is such that “every P1 investment has a multiplier of 2.81 investments in other industries such as services.”

There are 109 local and foreign logistics service providers in the country with aggregate revenue of P60 billion. They are very much concerned over the provision of efficient transport infrastructure, conducive policy environment, and regulations that will foster the logistics sectors’ competitiveness in terms of cost, service quality and reliability.

Based on a 2010 traffic study by the Japan International Cooperation Agency in Metro Manila and its environs, truck trips (per day) is expected to increase from 694,271 in 2010 to 872,329 in 2020 and 1 million by 2030. The share of trucks going to and from Manila is 60 percent. That means, we need to increase our road networks.

The Department of Public Works and Highways’ (DPWH) budget has increased dramatically over the last four years. In 2015, almost half (49 percent) of the government’s outlay infrastructure went to DPWH. The big challenge is improving the paved ratio of local roads that comprise 84.5 percent of the country’s total road network. Provincial and municipal roads have a low paved ratio of 35 percent, while city roads have a paved ratio of 62 percent.

Trains and trams are something we need to seriously pursue. Trains can be transshipment mode for raw and finished products, from Mindanao to the Visayas or Mindanao to Luzon. Trams can be an efficient mass transit in urban centers to the peripheries. But Congress will have to contend with the problematic Philippine National Railways (PNR) mandate, which has been pending in Congress despite the extension of its corporate life.

The good news is that under PRRD, the infra spending has been placed at 7 percent, an increase of 2 percent from BSA3’s 5 percent. The other good news is he is hands-on on infra coupled with the political will to push the projects fast. When we see projects launched and a building spree all over, then we test the government’s effort on corruption. If the infra projects are corruption-free, then we see why a Duterte is better than the rest. The surest way to defeat destabilization efforts is to perform well and accomplish more. Unfortunately, the Department of Transportation (DOTr) and the Department of Information and Communication Technology (DICT) are laggards instead of being shining stars. The social welfare clusters are moving. The economic clusters have rolled up their sleeves and the DPWH is getting things done. Agriculture is moving to remove bottlenecks one by one. The uni-dimensional focus must end.

The Duterte administration needs at least P8 trillion to close the infrastructure gap over the next six years. An initial list of 18 big-ticket items worth a total of P427.5 billion has already been approved by the National Economic and Development Authority. Clearly, accelerating infrastructure spending to help pull down the poverty rate to below 15 percent by the time he steps aside in 2022 is vital.

The reality is that the total resources of the Philippine financial system is P16.2 trillion and the Duterte administration would have to invest about Php8 trillion over the next six years on infra to be on a par with Asean. So, the more Congress spends time on this problem area, the better for the whole infra plan to be a reality.

Getting your act together has a multiplier effect, too. It quiets the shrillness in politics. Getting your act together is getting all hands deck, no lone stars. Getting your act together is no public meltdown; the only meltdown should be on tasks not done. From June 2016 to March 2017, or eight months hence, hold the reins tight and get things done. Don’t be derailed by the political noise.

As Socrates said, “the secret of change is to focus all of your energy not on fighting the old, but on building the new.”
Published in Commentaries
Friday, 03 February 2017 10:28

Brighter futures Mindanao

KNOWN as the “Land of Promise,” Mindanao is characterized by long coastlines and mountains that are filled with unique flora and fauna. A third of its land is devoted to agriculture and supplies 40 percent of food to the entire Philippines. Its land area is three times the size of Taiwan, 88 times bigger than Hong Kong, and 136 times larger than Singapore.

For a long time, it seemed that Mindanao was perceived as the backdoor to the Philippines. A closer look at the world map would show that Mindanao has a great opportunity to be the country’s frontdoor to Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and even Australia and New Zealand.

Mindanao is part of the East ASEAN Growth Area, a sub-regional cooperation initiative bringing together the neighboring areas of the ASEAN countries of Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines in the BIMP-EAGA, which was formally launched in 1994 in Davao City. The sub-regional cooperation initiative aims to utilize the strategic proximity of the cities and enhance key target areas such as agro-industries, trade and tourism. Aside from the benefits to be from cooperation, cities like Cagayan de Oro, General Santos, and Davao are experiencing significant economic growth, and are visibly becoming a destination of business investment and local tourism because of their emergence as the commercial and business centers of the south.

The Muslim provinces of Basilan, Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao, Sulu and Tawi-tawi also have great potential being in the center of trade for East Asia. But they would need more infrastructure development, especially in education, health and road infrastructure. Improvement in societal stability should also be addressed to attract more investors.

Prioritizing development projects in Mindanao

Under the Duterte administration, the allocated budget for both the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) and the Mindanao Development Authority increased significantly. Infrastructure projects are also already in the pipeline like the Mindanao Railway System that will total 2,000 kilometers in length. The proposed railway system will interconnect Butuan, Cagayan de Oro, Davao, General Santos, Surigao and Iligan. Other infrastructure projects in Mindanao will include upgrading and modernization of airports and seaports, as well as road networks that will improve access to tourism destinations and farm-to-market.

Last January 13, Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited President Rodrigo Duterte in Davao and pledged a trillion yen for infrastructure projects. The visit is seen to usher in more foreign investments, especially in Mindanao.

Zamboanga City

Just recently, Palafox Associates and Palafox Architecture had the opportunity to help Zamboanga City in the preparation of its Comprehensive Land Use Plan and Zoning Ordinance.It consists of plans for transportation, tourism, disaster preparedness, and security by design, among others. The plan also advocates an “agropolitan” development for the City of Zamboanga, integrating agriculture and aquaculture production with the necessary urban amenities that will spur growth for the city.

In addition, the Philippines, through the City of Zamboanga can play a crucial role in strengthening trade links with BIMP-EAGA, the Muslim countries in Asia and the Middle East. Along with the cities of General Santos, Cotabato and Davao, Zamboanga is identified to be among the selected urban centers in Mindanao for the BIMP-EAGA region. The Zamboanga Peninsula plays a critical role in realizing the medium and long-term goals of Mindanao and BIMP-EAGA which is to become a major location in ASEAN for high value-added agro-industry, natural resource-based manufacturing and high-end tourism that will eventually shift towards ensuring socio-economic, physical development, and a southern gateway to and from the Philippines.

Learning from Metro Manila

Indeed, Mindanao has a great opportunity for development, given the support from the Duterte administration. It would be important to prepare the island for the influx of investments through proper planning and development guidelines, so as not to repeat the mistakes of Metro Manila. At present, Davao City is already experiencing traffic congestion and is feeling the pressure to make necessary improvements to its mobility and transportation given the attention it is gaining from investors.

Comprehensive and collaborative planning is urgently needed as it is estimated that with the rapidly growing population and urbanization, there will be 35 million more Filipinos by 2050. Seventy to eighty percent of them will migrate to the cities. I estimate that with 150 million total population by 2050, the Philippines will need 100 more new cities. Moving forward, planning should not only be short-term and opportunistic, but also long-term and visionary.

I believe that the next six years give our country an opportunity for genuine reform and change. Mindanao is taking a major step in the right direction by prioritizing projects that will improve connectivity, convergence, context, corridors, and networks. Instead of putting up walls, the Philippines is building more bridges. Improving peace and order as well as promoting unity in diversity would also be crucial for growth to be inclusive. With this, bringing the Philippines well into the 21st century – a globally competitive country – will soon be in the horizon.
Published in Commentaries
MANILA, July 9 - President Rodrigo Roa Duterte joined a few members of the Muslim community in celebrating the first Mindanao Hariraya Eid’l Fit’r 2016 held in Davao City.

In his speech, President Duterte assured the moro brothers and sisters present, that he will once again bring peace in Mindanao, but they should give him a chance to “perfect an agreement”.

He said “tatanggapin natin sa isa’t isa (we should accept among us). Let us build a nation that will be founded on peace and understanding”.
Published in News
BusinessMirror Reporters VG. Cabuag, David Cagahastian, Manuel T. Cayon, Jovee Marie N. Dela Cruz, Cai U. Ordinario, Mary Grace C. Padin, Catherine N. Pillas, Joel R. San Juan and Butch Fernandez

MANILA and DAVAO CITY–HE’S excited. For Manuel, a confidential National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) staff, the excitement comes from the possibility of being regarded as an FBI agent.
Published in News
Thursday, 12 May 2016 15:00

PDP-LABAN – CDP HUGE TALKS ON ALLIANCE

 
DSC 7899A high level delegation of PDP Laban leaders were sent by their President, Senator Aquilino “Koko” Pimentel III to Davao City to meet with the Centrist Democratic Party (CDP) and the Centrist Democracy Political Institute (CDPI) Chairman Lito Lorenzana to explore the resumption of the coalition talks which was discontinued in the later part of 2015. To recall, the then Chairman of the PDP-Laban, and former South Cotabato Governor Mike Sueno, who lead the coalition talks gave way to the party chairmanship to now President-elect Rodrigo Duterte.

The delegation was headed by Vice-Chairman Alfonso Cusi, Treasurer Atty Clint Aranas, Deputy Secretary General for Mindanao Benito Ranque, Vice President for NCR Engr. Salvador Ty and Abbin Dalhani, President for NCR.
Published in News