THOSE who love him assert it was a spontaneous expression of solidarity. Those who despise him dismiss it as maudlin, corny and staged-managed. March 28 was the Deegong's 80th birthday, a venerable age worth celebrating, but for a besieged former president banished from his homeland, the pathos was devastating. As expected, a polarized people interpreted this day according to their best lights and from where they sit. But how does an ordinary Filipino with no inclination toward local politics or even a foreign observer infer from hundreds of images from countless Philippine cities and hundreds more from foreign lands of thousands greeting him a happy birthday. Signs of "We Love you Tatay Digong," "We await your return" were raised from Abu Dhabi to Oslo, to New York to Antarctica; to General Santos, to Davao City, to Bohol; to the seven continents and even to a pocket of Pinoys somewhere in China. This was OFW-driven — the Deegong's own, those in the fringes and like him, exiles from the land they love.

Pundits on both sides of the aisle now take sides; the pro-Duterte predicting a people power movement leading towards a revolution, echoing that of 1986. The pro-Marcos opine that this is a flash in the pan, an emotional response to the rendition to the Hague of the former president-criminal and therefore not sustainable. Let's wait for the circus of the midterm elections and the evidence from witnesses pouring in from the trial on the "crimes against humanity," they proclaim.

Similarities/dissimilarities 1983 vis-a vis 2025

I took the liberty of communicating with many of those participants of the events leading towards EDSA 1986, gathering their inputs during those times compared to those of today. Paul D, a Davaoeño political technocrat and historian, framed the current events in a timeline analogous to 1983 when Ninoy Aquino was assassinated on the tarmac coming down from a plane from Taiwan on his way back from exile during Marcos the father's watch. Not that Ninoy's assassination is equivalent to the Deegong's forced rendition directly from a commercial plane from Hong Kong to a private plane to the Hague; this time abetted by Marcos, the son. The eerie circumstances may be akin to déjà vu. But not quite. With the Marcos DNA clearly imprinted, we mark this as a point of departure for today's column.

Dramatis personae

John Raña, another political technocrat, opines that "history has a way of repeating itself, and the events leading to EDSA 1 in 1986 mirror many aspects of the political climate." Raña juxtaposed this historical perspective with both personalities as martyrs; Ninoy in 1983 and the Deegong in 2025.

Ninoy's martyrdom in 1983 is perhaps too much of a hyperbole to label the Deegong's circumstance similarly. The former was an ambitious tradpol who sensed a dictator's impending demise handing him an opportunity to negotiate a modus vivendi for the country — fearful of the ascendancy to power of the rival Imelda-Ver-Cojuangco triumvirate.

Deegong on the other hand is accused of crimes against humanity for which the ICC issued an arrest warrant against him and he must face trial at The Hague. Not a martyr in my books. But the method of his rendition and the anomalous participation of a complicit bureaucracy speaks nonetheless of the cowardly act of BBM. His trial abroad is justified because justice in the Philippines is skewed towards the mighty and the powerful; and the Deegong with allies ensconced in the highest echelons still possess the residual effects of power and influence with the capability of distorting the process.

Seething cauldron

Raña's and Paul D's second element as preconditions for an uprising or a revolution was that both periods saw massive corruption and looting of government coffers, economic decline and the perversion of the rule of law. The elder Marcos introduced "cronyism" and "kleptocracy" to the political lexicon and their gross mismanagement perpetrated a debt crisis and bankruptcy of the government leading to hard currency and capital flight.

BBM, aided by relatives elected and unelected, likewise perpetrated massive looting of funds through the budget process and is now poised to extend his grasp on power by perverting the election process with ayuda. Compared to 1983, 2025 is depravity of a lesser magnitude — but unconscionable nonetheless.

Dissent and protests

The third element refers to the suppression of dissent. In 1983, Macoy muzzled the press, allowing the publication only of newspapers controlled by cronies, disseminating his version of truth. The political opposition, resorting to massive protests in the "parliament of the streets," were perfunctorily curtailed, their leaders incarcerated.

In 2025, in this era of internet and social media, the regime's method of press and media repression began with the congressional committee hearings against the mostly pro-Duterte vloggers and podcasters labeling them as "tsismis disseminators" and producers of "fake news" — shaming the leading ones to tears. The brazen minions of the House Speaker during the infamous VP Sara hearing were the same bullies conducting this inquisition.

Military and religious components

The fourth element provided by Harvard-trained retired colonel Alejandro "Babes" Flores is the military's role. In 1983, the Reform the Armed Forces (RAM) movement played a critical role with the defense secretary Juan Ponce Enrile as its patron. A coup d'etat was the primary intention. But it was bound to fail without the participation of the fifth element.

And therein lies the importance of the religious sector headed by Cardinal Sin of the Catholic hierarchy. The people were summoned to EDSA to protect the breakaway forces led by the much respected and charismatic Gen. Fidel Ramos. They came in droves unfazed by the battle tanks of Gen. Fabian Ver, the Marcos berdugo. This would not have happened were it not for the seething anger against the decades-long oppression by the dictatorship and the people's patience reaching its breaking point.

Hovering over these events was a figure that would stamp its legitimacy on the EDSA People Power 1986 — the housewife Cory, the widow of the slain martyr.

The military and police components today are similarly polarized. As to the segments of the civilian population, Marcos has retained the loyalty of the Ilocanos in the North where their political dynasty and its tentacles reign supreme. And he may have the loyalty of the oligarchy and the elite. But these are opportunists with their fealty, transitory. And the Americans as usual will stand and watch as the weathervane perpetually points to their self-interest. China's position on all these developments is irrelevant. Its bromance with Duterte has long lost its luster with EDCA bases and the missiles now in place.

Duterte's fledgling dynasty exists only in Davao and his sons do not inspire. The one true heir to his legacy, VP Sara, may be impeached over her indiscretions on her own anomalies but could still claim fidelity from Davaoeños and the Muslims in Mindanao.

The Tagalogs, the Bicolanos, the Visayans may not be as responsive. Thus, Colonel Babes' pronouncement that "demographics may spell the difference."

Are the elements for a revolution valid? We the people — not necessarily pro-Marcos or pro-Duterte who have weakened each other — must control this narrative.

Then act we must!