Fourth of a series

TOMES have been written about the superiority of a federal-parliamentary system to the unitary-presidential form that we have now. We advocate federal-parliamentary as an alternative. All Filipino presidents understood the imperatives for systemic changes from the very start of their rule, only to falter somewhere in the course of their administrations when personal political interests or the vested interest of their patrons were threatened.

Without delving into lengthy arguments reinforcing the relative superiority of federal-parliamentary, I am reprinting my updated column, "Federal-parliamentary vs unitary-presidential system" (The Manila Times, June 15, 2022). The lists of countries lifted from the 2024 Corruption Perception Index (CPI) by Transparency International show compelling statistics of corrupt countries with their corresponding system of governments.

10 most corrupt, least transparent countries

1. Somalia – federal parliamentary; 2. Venezuela – federal presidential; 3. Syria - authoritarian presidential; 4. South Sudan – federal presidential; 5. Yemen – presidential; 6. North Korea - totalitarian presidential; 7. Nicaragua - authoritarian presidential; 8. Haiti – presidential; 9. Equatorial Guinea – presidential; 10. Turkmenistan – presidential.

Nine of the above are under a presidential system. Only Somalia has a federal-parliamentary government.

10 least peaceful nations

1. Yemen – presidential; 2. Sudan - federal presidential; 3. South Sudan - federal presidential; 4. Afghanistan – presidential; 5. Ukraine – presidential; 6. Democratic Republic of the Congo – presidential; 7. Russia – federal presidential; 8. Syria – presidential; 9. Israel – parliamentary; 10. Mali – presidential.

Of this list, nine have presidential forms, and only Israel is parliamentary. Similarly, of the nations with the highest terrorism index, six have presidential governments — Mali, Syria, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Myanmar and Niger; and four — Burkina Faso, Israel, Pakistan and Somalia — have a combination of parliamentary-semi-presidential governments.

10 least corrupt nations

By contrast, Denmark, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Canada and Germany are the world's top 10 "least corrupt" nations. All have parliamentary systems although Singapore had a strong prime minister in Lee Kwan Yew, the founding leader. Include in this list the United States, Australia and Ireland. Only the US, among them, adopts a federal presidential form.

15 most prosperous nations

Finally, in the list of the top 15 most prosperous nations (Norway, Switzerland, Denmark, New Zealand, Sweden, Canada, Australia, Netherlands, Finland, Ireland, United States, Iceland, Luxembourg, Germany and the United Kingdom), all are parliamentary governments, except the US' federal-presidential.

Empirical evidence clearly indicates that a parliamentary government is superior to a presidential system and suggests further that a federal trumps a unitary system.

President Macoy understood this too well, instituting parliamentary government in the 1973 Marcos Constitution, which was abrogated by President Cory, substituting her 1987 Constitution, which enshrined a presidential-unitary system.

Path toward change — fed-parl govt

Only through the revision of the 1987 Constitution can a federal-parliamentary system be installed. But going through the three modes of constitutional revision and amendments — people's initiative (PI), constituent assembly (ConAss) or a constitutional convention (ConCon) – any of these modes must involve the acts of a disgraceful legislature. This has been attempted several times in the last three decades. The legislature even refuses to pass laws against political dynasties — acting against their interest — although proscribed in the 1987 Cory Constitution. Systemic change is thus impossible through this legal process.

My recent columns suggested sane people in the military act to break the impasse and take control of the desperate situation we find ourselves in. I suggested that "perhaps we need a shogun – a temporary one along the lines of an FVR." Some of my readers, like Agnes Marcella L. "...doubts that military intervention would do much to significantly alter the status quo (as) the system (itself) would devour them just the same. (It's) such a big gamble because who in the military has the gravitas to direct the country in that direction without being co-opted in the process? I highly doubt constitutional changes rank high in the minds of these men in uniform."

She is partly right, as the events that unfolded leading toward the 1986 EDSA People Power uprising abetted by a military component would suggest. The civilian government, led by President Cory, mandated to enact a new constitution instead, emerged with one negating the seeds of systemic changes and reverted to the old and familiar and utterly anomalous. The adoption of a parliamentary government, which was the original intent of her constituencies, was aborted, and a unitary presidential system of government, with all its inherent iniquities, was retained.

Thus, signaling the start of the recapture of the EDSA People Power by the remnants of the old regime, the old oligarchy and her new oligarchy, the "kamag-anak," later co-opted with the emergence of the Estradas, the Macapagals, the Aquinos and the Dutertes, retaining the old values resulting in the continuation of the practices of traditional politics and the proliferation of political dynasties. The fulfillment of the promises of people power cum military component eventually failed, paving the way for the return of the very family that was booted out in 1986 — the Marcos-Romualdez clan. And the narratives of a dysfunctional system continue to plague the land.

EDSA version 2.0

We need to learn from its failures in 1983-1986 when the civilian and uniformed components did not work in sync after the assassination of Ninoy when the political atmosphere was ripe for change. We have similar conditions today exacerbated by the impunity of our political leadership. Former generals and retired military personnel are voicing out their frustrations directed toward the political leadership, calling for their removal. These are allies possessing the right kind of expertise. Civic society needs to reach out to them for a dialogue arriving at commonalities for a systemic change.

This is a desperate solution and one fraught with risks. But with the trajectory, we find ourselves in an executive branch complicit with a shameless legislature, with the judiciary inutile –our complacency condemns us toward perdition.

Another of my readers posits the idea that you only need to choose the right leaders. John Raña argues that "Philippine politics has long been framed as a battle between rival families or a choice between the lesser evil—a false narrative that traps the nation in a cycle of failed leadership. The challenge now is to reject recycled names and demand real leadership. The right leader will not come from dynasties but from the ashes of their failures." John's thesis is that corruption in government is the root cause of the country's pressing problems, and a good president who truly can defeat corruption will not only clean up government but also restore trust in leadership. This is a palliative. Corruption is a symptom of systemic dysfunctions.

No doubt, a decent president is a must. But the fallacy of these arguments has been exposed several generations back. Tongue in cheek, it has been advanced too that even if Jesus Christ sits on top of our Philippine government structure, he will fail. The system will eat him alive.

Kingdom Keepers, a coalition of concerned citizens, is calling for a mass indignation rally on Jan. 31 at the EDSA Shrine. I will be there. This could be the beginning of...

The Senate President crowed yesterday that the party he nominally coheads, PDP-Laban, has a “pleasant problem” — too many potential senatorial candidates. Koko Pimentel’s estimate is they have up to 20 possible choices for the 12-person slate for the 2019 senatorial race. But his list includes the five administration-affiliated senatorial incumbents up for reelection next year. This is a group that has made noises that, much as it prefers to remain in the administration camp, it is unhappy with the way PDP-Laban has been designating its local leaders and candidates, and therefore prefers to strike out on its own, perhaps in alliance with the other administration (regional) party, Hugpong ng Pagbabago, headed by the President’s daughter and current Davao City mayor, Sara Duterte.

Setting aside, then, the five-person “Force,” the administration-oriented but not PDP-friendly reelectionists (Nancy Binay, Sonny Angara, Cynthia Villar, Grace Poe, and JV Ejercito), what Koko’s crowing over is a mixed bag. Some of them have been floated by Speaker Pantaleon Alvarez (with whom Mayor Duterte clashed in recent months): six representatives (Gloria Macapagal Arroyo who is in her last term in the House of Representatives; Albee Benitez, Karlo Nograles, Rey Umali, Geraldine Roman, and Zajid Mangudadatu), three Cabinet members (Bong Go, Harry Roque, and Francis Tolentino), and two other officials (Mocha Uson and Ronald dela Rosa), which still only adds up to 11 possible candidates (who are the missing three?).

Of all of these, the “Force” reelectionists are only fair-weather allies of the present dispensation; their setting themselves apart is about much more than the mess PDP-Laban made in, say, San Juan where support for the Zamoras makes it extremely unattractive for JV Ejercito to consider being in the same slate. Their cohesion is about thinking ahead: Creating the nucleus for the main coalition to beat in the 2022 presidential election. The contingent of congressmen and congresswomen who could become candidates for the Senate, however, seems more a means to kick the Speaker’s rivals upstairs (at least in the case of Benitez and Arroyo) and pad the candidates’ list with token but sacrificial candidates, a similar situation to the executive officials being mentioned as possible candidates (of the executive officials, only Go seems viable, but making him run would deprive the President of the man who actually runs the executive department, and would be a clear signal that the administration is shifting to a post-term protection attitude instead of the more ambitious system-change mode it’s been on, so far).

Vice President Leni Robredo has been more circumspect, saying she’s not sure the Liberal Party can even muster a full slate. The party chair, Kiko Pangilinan, denied that a list circulating online (incumbent Bam Aquino, former senators Mar Roxas, Jun Magsaysay, TG Guingona, current and former representatives Jose Christopher Belmonte, Kaka Bag-ao, Edcel Lagman, Raul Daza, Gary Alejano and Erin Tañada, former governor Eddie Panlilio and Cebu City Mayor Tomas Osmeña) had any basis in fact.

What both lists have in common is they could be surveys-on-the-cheap, trial balloons to get the public pulse. Until the 17th Congress reconvenes briefly from May 14 to June 1 for the tail end of its second regular session (only to adjourn sine die until the third regular session begins on July 23), it has nothing much to do. Except, that is, for the barangay elections in May, after a last-ditch effort by the House to postpone them yet again to October failed.

Names can be floated but the real signal will come in July, when the President mounts the rostrum and calls for the big push for a new constitution—or not. Connected to this would be whether the Supreme Court disposes of its own chief, which would spare the Senate—and thus, free up the legislative calendar—to consider Charter change instead of an impeachment trial. In the meantime, what congressmen do seem abuzz over is an unrefusable invitation to the Palace tomorrow — to mark Arroyo’s birthday. An event possibly pregnant with meaning.

“Then I fall to my knees, shake a rattle at the skies and I’m afraid that I’ll be taken, abandoned, forsaken in her cold coffee eyes.” – A quote from the song, “She moves on” by Paul Simon, singer/songwriter

THE recent tremors affecting the central provinces of Mindanao caused by a series of seismic waves radiating to the northern and southern parts of the island, were like nature shaking a rattle, emitting sharp sounds and unnerving motions from the underground, both frightening and bewildering as to the intensity and confusion they generated.

The successive earthquakes and aftershocks were rattling the nerves not only of residents close to the epicenter but also those living along the active fault planes who were not used to strong earth movements. Some reported dizziness, anxiety, depression and other post-traumatic stress symptoms after experiencing continuous shaking and periodic vibrations.

As this article was written, less frequent but perceptible tremors were felt on the affected areas although everyone is reportedly bracing for aftershocks which many hope and pray, would not turn out to be the dreaded “big one,” as some irresponsible persons are falsely posting on social media. Shake a rattle drum to this latter blokes.

According to Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs), since the 1900s, Mindanao has been rocked by at least 35 earthquakes, three of which, felt at “Intensity 7” or worse, were deemed destructive: the 1976 Moro Gulf earthquake which caused a tsunami reaching up to nine meters that killed about 8,000 people including the unaccounted ones; the 1999 series of earthquakes in Agusan del Sur damaging roads, and poorly constructed schools and infrastructure; and the Sultan Kudarat earthquake in 2002, killing eight people with 41 others injured and affecting over seven thousand families in the provinces of Sarangani, North and South Cotabato (Rappler 2019). Shake a rattle of prayers for all who perished in these tragedies.

The series of earthquakes in October of this year, just weeks apart, with magnitudes of over 6 hitting many provinces, again, in Cotabato and southern parts of Davao accounted for the death toll of 22, damaging homes, school buildings and many infrastructure, shaking and sending chills to many residents who have to deal with continuing albeit smaller tremors which can be felt as far up the city of Cagayan de Oro and down the southern province of Sarangani.

Some local officials reported residents having developed “earthquake phobia” keeping watch on their clock hanging inside their tents in evacuation sites, losing sleep with anxiety awaiting when the next tremor would be coming. With frayed nerves, some would panic over even slight ground shakings.

But this is not about the temblor as much as the response of people and the country’s leaders and responsible officials. Except for the government of China which donated P22 million in aid and support for relief efforts in Mindanao, hurray for China, other foreign countries just expressed condolences and messages of sympathy to families of victims. No pledges, no assistance. Perhaps, they can’t trust our government agencies to do the job for them anymore. To them, a shake of the baby rattle.

To the initial bunch of donors who immediately come with their financial assistance such as Yorme Isko Moreno of Manila with his P5 million personal money, Mayor Vico Sotto with relief goods and P14 million coming from the people of Pasig City, Mayor Marcy Teodoro of Marikina with 100 modular tents, movie star Angel Locsin who moved about sans fanfare for her charity work offering food and other assistance to victims in Davao and North Cotabato, to Mayor Inday Duterte for relief distribution, Cebu provincial government for disaster relief campaign and to the many nameless others who came with their relief aids, shake a rattle of joy and thankfulness for their kindness and generosity.

To our government officials and politicians goes our appeal to set aside politics, distribute the relief items according to the wishes of their donors and not allow goods to rot because of political colors as was shown in the previous administration’s handling of donated goods. To them, shake a rattle of enlightenment and peace.

In whatever disaster or crisis that befalls the country, trust Filipinos’ resiliency and coping mechanisms such as resorting to prayers and humor to come to their succor.

Social media become a natural venue for memes, practical jokes and bantering such as the ones which came after Pastor Apollo C. Quiboloy reportedly claimed that he caused to stop the earthquakes so they can no longer create damage. To everyone, shake a rattle of laughter and fun while we help provide for the needs of our less fortunate brethren in Cotabato and Davao provinces.