THE Deegong is languishing at The Hague with zero prospects of ever coming home — at least not before the start of the ICC trial in September. The midterm election is upon us, making a mockery of the choice of our political leadership with all sides employing the proverbial "guns-gold-goons" to put in power actors, entertainers, incompetents and the corrupt. But these concerns may be overshadowed by a looming crisis comparable to the years 2008 and 2019.

To recall, the 2008 financial crisis, centered on America triggered a recession stemming from a combination of factors, including a housing bubble fueled by risky mortgages, complex financial instruments peddled by big banks — too big to fail but inadequately regulated; run of bankruptcy and capital exodus. These caused massive job losses and erosion of household wealth, leading to a global economic meltdown.

A decade later, emanating from Wuhan, China, under Xi Jinping's watch, the Covid-19 pandemic struck. The virus killed millions. It devastated economies with forced lockdowns causing social and cultural disruptions lasting for years. America suffered 1.193 million fatalities. This was during Trump's first presidential term, "...where he sought to cure the coronavirus-infected by injecting the patients with bleach and disinfectants and run a light inside the body through the skin..."

The same two personalities are again in the forefront of the 2025 crisis. This time, this crisis was not by an act of God but by an act of a megalomaniac. On April 2, 2025, Trump's imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" across the board against all its trading partners, including penguins in Antarctica and uninhabited islands somewhere, is currently bashing the world and tanking financial markets. By all accounts, his acts were ostensibly to free America from decades of being ripped off by trading partners, singling out China — where a 145-percent tariff was levied on Chinese goods. In retaliation, China slapped a 125-percent tariff on American goods. (The Philippines was slapped 17 percent but has been suspended for 90 days.)

This tit for tat is unconscionable, childish and stupid. Offhand, Trump targeted China as unfairly causing America's biggest trade deficit of $295.4 billion. US exports were $143.5 billion, while imports from China were $438.9 billion. America has been running similar deficits with China for years.

The underlying issues

Trump's main grievances are that these deficits are the result of China's bigoted trade practices, including currency manipulation, subsidies for Chinese industries, and erecting barriers against US companies entering the Chinese market. Tariffs as punitive sanctions are aimed at reforming China's practices regarding intellectual property (IP) theft and forced technology transfers. Trump and previous US presidents have criticized China for its state-led economic model, which it views as giving Chinese companies an unfair advantage over foreign competitors. Tariffs were meant to counteract what the US sees as China's predatory trade practices. But Trump's tariffs, economists agree, are devoid of economic rationality and are simply instruments of blackmail and bully tactics — an extension of the US president's persona.

What Trump wants

Trump's motivations apparently were to fulfill his election promises to MAGA: to bring back six million manufacturing jobs which left America since 1979; cut deficits to the bone; and use tariffs to raise revenue from foreign countries exporting their goods to the US. He declared pompously that, "Tariff is the most beautiful word in the dictionary to me... after God, religion and love... and tariff will make America wealthy again."

This untutored and illiterate buffoon never did understand that tariffs on imports are taxes imposed by a government on goods and services brought into the country from abroad. Economists outside of his circle of sycophants have warned him that tariffs on imports typically lead to higher prices for imported goods. When America imposes a tariff, importers with an eye for their bottom line often pass on the additional costs to consumers. This makes imported products more expensive than the domestically produced alternatives. The effects could be fewer product options to choose from, limiting access to certain goods.

More often than not, domestic producers facing less competition from foreign imports may raise their prices as well — negating the purposes for which tariffs are imposed in the first place.

Advantages of tariff on imports

There are seeming advantages to tariffication, foremost among which is that they protect domestic industries from foreign competition, allowing them time to grow and thrive until they can compete in the international market. Some are aimed at shielding sectors deemed vital for national security and economic stability. While tariffs in the short run provide protection on certain domestic industries and jobs, they can also lead to job losses in other sectors, particularly those reliant solely on imported materials for locally assembled products.

But with the higher costs of imported goods, so the argument goes, US companies could invest more on domestic manufacturing, incentivizing those US companies that have established manufacturing abroad to relocate to the US mainland.

Tariff drawbacks far outweigh the gains

Trump's arguments on relocation of manufacturing from abroad back to the US is tenuous at best. The gestation period as it is, will take several years to get a factory up and running. At which time, America would have possible changes in government after the midterm and presidential elections. Governments and policies can seesaw between the GOP and the Democrats. Unless Trump illegally stays on after 2028 for another term — which he has been hinting at.

But imposition of tariffs is not a one-way-street. Retaliation by countries like Canada, Mexico, the European Union and particularly China, will result in trade wars exacerbating price wars, supply chain disruptions, economic uncertainty and global economic slowdown.

Trump may or may not grasp the subtleties. But Trump's hubris may have driven him to prove globalists got it wrong, not him. His MAGA crowd now claims these are pathways to negotiations. His art of the deal.

But these impending trade wars will inflict too much pain on inflation-weary American consumers compared to the Chinese. A totalitarian state has a much greater leeway curtailing freedoms as it does, in alleviating economic pain than America. China's Covid-19's severe lockdowns come to mind.

After Trump blinked, panicked by the volatility of the bond market, suspending his reciprocal tariffs for 90 days (except those for China), he had to save face with his usual infantile bravado, "...countries will line up to 'kiss my ass' just dying to negotiate. China wants a deal; it just doesn't know how to go about it."

Not true, said Victor Gao, a former translator close to Deng Xiaoping in his interview with Cathy Newman, a journalist. With America composing 15 percent of its exports, can it afford not to negotiate?

Gao's retort: "China is fully prepared to fight to the very end because the world is big enough that the United States is not the totality of the market... China has been here for 5,000 years... and we expect to survive for another 5,000 years."

The two biggest economies with the two biggest egos may yet let the problem fester driving the world deep into a recession. The world may survive, but at what cost. Meanwhile, Trump and Xi Jinping will continue their pissing contest.

Pataasan ng ihi!

 

The Senate President crowed yesterday that the party he nominally coheads, PDP-Laban, has a “pleasant problem” — too many potential senatorial candidates. Koko Pimentel’s estimate is they have up to 20 possible choices for the 12-person slate for the 2019 senatorial race. But his list includes the five administration-affiliated senatorial incumbents up for reelection next year. This is a group that has made noises that, much as it prefers to remain in the administration camp, it is unhappy with the way PDP-Laban has been designating its local leaders and candidates, and therefore prefers to strike out on its own, perhaps in alliance with the other administration (regional) party, Hugpong ng Pagbabago, headed by the President’s daughter and current Davao City mayor, Sara Duterte.

Setting aside, then, the five-person “Force,” the administration-oriented but not PDP-friendly reelectionists (Nancy Binay, Sonny Angara, Cynthia Villar, Grace Poe, and JV Ejercito), what Koko’s crowing over is a mixed bag. Some of them have been floated by Speaker Pantaleon Alvarez (with whom Mayor Duterte clashed in recent months): six representatives (Gloria Macapagal Arroyo who is in her last term in the House of Representatives; Albee Benitez, Karlo Nograles, Rey Umali, Geraldine Roman, and Zajid Mangudadatu), three Cabinet members (Bong Go, Harry Roque, and Francis Tolentino), and two other officials (Mocha Uson and Ronald dela Rosa), which still only adds up to 11 possible candidates (who are the missing three?).

Of all of these, the “Force” reelectionists are only fair-weather allies of the present dispensation; their setting themselves apart is about much more than the mess PDP-Laban made in, say, San Juan where support for the Zamoras makes it extremely unattractive for JV Ejercito to consider being in the same slate. Their cohesion is about thinking ahead: Creating the nucleus for the main coalition to beat in the 2022 presidential election. The contingent of congressmen and congresswomen who could become candidates for the Senate, however, seems more a means to kick the Speaker’s rivals upstairs (at least in the case of Benitez and Arroyo) and pad the candidates’ list with token but sacrificial candidates, a similar situation to the executive officials being mentioned as possible candidates (of the executive officials, only Go seems viable, but making him run would deprive the President of the man who actually runs the executive department, and would be a clear signal that the administration is shifting to a post-term protection attitude instead of the more ambitious system-change mode it’s been on, so far).

Vice President Leni Robredo has been more circumspect, saying she’s not sure the Liberal Party can even muster a full slate. The party chair, Kiko Pangilinan, denied that a list circulating online (incumbent Bam Aquino, former senators Mar Roxas, Jun Magsaysay, TG Guingona, current and former representatives Jose Christopher Belmonte, Kaka Bag-ao, Edcel Lagman, Raul Daza, Gary Alejano and Erin Tañada, former governor Eddie Panlilio and Cebu City Mayor Tomas Osmeña) had any basis in fact.

What both lists have in common is they could be surveys-on-the-cheap, trial balloons to get the public pulse. Until the 17th Congress reconvenes briefly from May 14 to June 1 for the tail end of its second regular session (only to adjourn sine die until the third regular session begins on July 23), it has nothing much to do. Except, that is, for the barangay elections in May, after a last-ditch effort by the House to postpone them yet again to October failed.

Names can be floated but the real signal will come in July, when the President mounts the rostrum and calls for the big push for a new constitution—or not. Connected to this would be whether the Supreme Court disposes of its own chief, which would spare the Senate—and thus, free up the legislative calendar—to consider Charter change instead of an impeachment trial. In the meantime, what congressmen do seem abuzz over is an unrefusable invitation to the Palace tomorrow — to mark Arroyo’s birthday. An event possibly pregnant with meaning.

“Then I fall to my knees, shake a rattle at the skies and I’m afraid that I’ll be taken, abandoned, forsaken in her cold coffee eyes.” – A quote from the song, “She moves on” by Paul Simon, singer/songwriter

THE recent tremors affecting the central provinces of Mindanao caused by a series of seismic waves radiating to the northern and southern parts of the island, were like nature shaking a rattle, emitting sharp sounds and unnerving motions from the underground, both frightening and bewildering as to the intensity and confusion they generated.

The successive earthquakes and aftershocks were rattling the nerves not only of residents close to the epicenter but also those living along the active fault planes who were not used to strong earth movements. Some reported dizziness, anxiety, depression and other post-traumatic stress symptoms after experiencing continuous shaking and periodic vibrations.

As this article was written, less frequent but perceptible tremors were felt on the affected areas although everyone is reportedly bracing for aftershocks which many hope and pray, would not turn out to be the dreaded “big one,” as some irresponsible persons are falsely posting on social media. Shake a rattle drum to this latter blokes.

According to Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs), since the 1900s, Mindanao has been rocked by at least 35 earthquakes, three of which, felt at “Intensity 7” or worse, were deemed destructive: the 1976 Moro Gulf earthquake which caused a tsunami reaching up to nine meters that killed about 8,000 people including the unaccounted ones; the 1999 series of earthquakes in Agusan del Sur damaging roads, and poorly constructed schools and infrastructure; and the Sultan Kudarat earthquake in 2002, killing eight people with 41 others injured and affecting over seven thousand families in the provinces of Sarangani, North and South Cotabato (Rappler 2019). Shake a rattle of prayers for all who perished in these tragedies.

The series of earthquakes in October of this year, just weeks apart, with magnitudes of over 6 hitting many provinces, again, in Cotabato and southern parts of Davao accounted for the death toll of 22, damaging homes, school buildings and many infrastructure, shaking and sending chills to many residents who have to deal with continuing albeit smaller tremors which can be felt as far up the city of Cagayan de Oro and down the southern province of Sarangani.

Some local officials reported residents having developed “earthquake phobia” keeping watch on their clock hanging inside their tents in evacuation sites, losing sleep with anxiety awaiting when the next tremor would be coming. With frayed nerves, some would panic over even slight ground shakings.

But this is not about the temblor as much as the response of people and the country’s leaders and responsible officials. Except for the government of China which donated P22 million in aid and support for relief efforts in Mindanao, hurray for China, other foreign countries just expressed condolences and messages of sympathy to families of victims. No pledges, no assistance. Perhaps, they can’t trust our government agencies to do the job for them anymore. To them, a shake of the baby rattle.

To the initial bunch of donors who immediately come with their financial assistance such as Yorme Isko Moreno of Manila with his P5 million personal money, Mayor Vico Sotto with relief goods and P14 million coming from the people of Pasig City, Mayor Marcy Teodoro of Marikina with 100 modular tents, movie star Angel Locsin who moved about sans fanfare for her charity work offering food and other assistance to victims in Davao and North Cotabato, to Mayor Inday Duterte for relief distribution, Cebu provincial government for disaster relief campaign and to the many nameless others who came with their relief aids, shake a rattle of joy and thankfulness for their kindness and generosity.

To our government officials and politicians goes our appeal to set aside politics, distribute the relief items according to the wishes of their donors and not allow goods to rot because of political colors as was shown in the previous administration’s handling of donated goods. To them, shake a rattle of enlightenment and peace.

In whatever disaster or crisis that befalls the country, trust Filipinos’ resiliency and coping mechanisms such as resorting to prayers and humor to come to their succor.

Social media become a natural venue for memes, practical jokes and bantering such as the ones which came after Pastor Apollo C. Quiboloy reportedly claimed that he caused to stop the earthquakes so they can no longer create damage. To everyone, shake a rattle of laughter and fun while we help provide for the needs of our less fortunate brethren in Cotabato and Davao provinces.