Centrist Democracy Political Institute - Items filtered by date: August 2024
Wednesday, 28 August 2024 23:43
Ukraine war — heading toward Armageddon?
I HAD devoted 13 of my columns to the Russo-Ukraine war starting the week of Feb. 24, 2022, when Russian Premier Putin made his move and invaded Ukraine. This 14th article is precipitated by the invasion by Ukraine of Russian territory. On Aug. 6, 2024, Ukraine's army entered the Kursk region, capturing dozens of settlements in the biggest offensive by a foreign army on Russian soil since Hitler's Operation Barbarossa in June 1941 — 83 years ago. Zelenskyy's ostensible strategy is to create a buffer zone around the 1,000 square kilometer occupied territory to prevent Russian cross-border strikes and daily hostile shelling of Ukraine's civilian population. This invasion was a long time in coming and "tit-for-tat" for Russia's occupation of Ukraine's Donbas region.
NATO and even Putin himself believe that the recent Ukrainian sortie improves Zelenskyy's negotiating position for the coming ceasefire talks, if ever, the Donbas region and Crimea in exchange for the Kursk Oblast. Both sides need a respite from this war, time to lick their wounds and regroup before resuming the conflict at some future date.
But this invasion is unraveling Putin's image as the strongman, destroying the myths he so judiciously built up over the years: Russia is impregnable and invincible, owning the second-largest army in the world. Putin's credibility is called into question, subjecting him to humiliation among his allies and to the world — and to his own people.
America and NATO are taking a curious stance. They have always cautioned Zelenskyy not to go beyond Ukraine's border and imposed restrictions on the use of Western weapons to strike targets deeper into Russian territory for fear Russia will respond in kind, expanding the war and engulfing Western and Eastern Europe and beyond. Ukraine's leaders have repeatedly requested NATO for weapons that can give them the capability to hit targets inside Russia itself, which NATO was reluctant to allow. Zelenskyy has sought authorization for long-range strikes on Russian air bases and other infrastructure used to pummel Ukraine's energy facilities and other civilian targets. Ukraine was grudgingly recently granted a squadron of F16 jets — which were presumably used to accomplish air dominance during this invasion. With this, Zelenskyy has handed them a fait accompli, stating, "It is crucial that our partners remove barriers that hinder us from weakening Russian positions in the way this war demands."
Implications of Ukraine invasion
This invasion has "presented a dilemma to Russia" — as Biden put it succinctly — yet NATO allies may have no choice but simply be "forced to good." Putin's saber-rattling on using tactical nuclear weapons has been silenced lately as he was warned by China against this alternative. And the immediate and total destruction of Russia in retaliation is a no-brainer.
Still, this invasion could provoke a significant backlash inside Russia as the tightly guarded press freedom and news dissemination of the massive evacuation of the population around Kursk filters the larger Russian populace, bringing the war uncomfortably close. Putin's leadership may be put to the test, undermining his authority, although no immediate change in leadership is expected as Putin has a firm grip on power. Nevertheless, Putin's hands-on involvement in the war has put the blame squarely on him, resulting in several of his generals being sacked and sent to the front and disappearing — if rumors are to be believed. This recent development reveals weaknesses in Russia's military readiness and morale. According to Ukrainian intelligence services, more and more soldiers of the Russian army want to lay down their arms; the number of Russian deserters has been higher than ever in the past weeks.
This invasion, gaining confidence for Ukraine, may lead it to seek and reclaim more territory and certainly lead to an escalation of hostilities. Putin and the Russian leadership will not tolerate Ukraine forces to be ensconced in Kursk for long. To retake the oblast, he will not spare the remaining population and its destruction as it did with the Ukraine cities around the Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
Overall, this temporary advantage to Ukraine will precipitate a reevaluation of NATO's support that could lead to calls for negotiations or a ceasefire. This is for the best interest particularly of the US now in the midst of a presidential election trending towards a Democratic win — a known factor to Ukraine. A Trump government with his admiration and schoolboy crush on Putin and the former's declaration to "end the war in one day" may prove to be a step towards unknown and uncharted territory.
Thus, the long-term consequences of this invasion could reshape the geopolitical landscape in Eastern Europe, leading to a reconfiguration of alliances, increased military presence of NATO in Eastern Europe, and a shift in the balance of power in the region.
Putin has threatened to get his forces in Kaliningrad to move into western Ukraine with no specifics, as Kaliningrad is Russia's enclave along the Baltic Sea and has no avenue toward Ukraine except through Lithuania and Poland — NATO countries. But it has sufficiently disturbed the three Baltic states — Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia — that they issued a chilling warning: they're prepared to send troops into Ukraine without NATO approval. Fearing Russia's growing aggression, these Baltic nations see themselves as next in line. With historical ties to the Soviet Union and recent Russian threats, they're taking matters into their own hands — preventing Putin from mimicking his American acolyte to "Make Russia Great Again!"
Antecedents of the war
To put things in proper perspective, this development in the Ukraine-Russo war brings us to its beginnings. In my March 2022 column, I traced the seeds of this conflict from the fall of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). "The collapse started on Premier Mikhail Gorbachev's watch when the USSR loosened its grip on the Eastern European countries (Soviets) composing the USSR, allowing them multi-party elections that began a slow process of democratization. This led to the destabilization of communist control, and the ensuing momentum caused the greatest modern symbol of communist Soviet hegemony to fall — the Berlin Wall."
America, the USSR's greatest Cold War rival, was not exactly gloating on the sidelines. Nevertheless, this was a humiliating blow to the hardline Russian communist elite — though the Russian people and the freed Soviet republics welcomed Gorbachev's reform agenda and subsequently President Boris Yeltsin's rapid economic reforms."
Around this time, too, was the rise of a despot. "One who witnessed the fall of the Berlin Wall was a KGB apparatchik, an undercover spy in East Germany named Vladimir Putin. The aftermath was chaotic for Russia, which lost 15 of its Soviets and 2 million square miles of territory, including the second biggest after Russia itself — Ukraine.
This was seen as the century's greatest geopolitical disaster, ushering in political and economic chaos in part caused by the unfamiliarity of capitalist concepts introduced after decades of socialism. This tectonic shift in the economic paradigm brought to the surface the shady part of capitalism — graft and corruption pervading all levels of bureaucracy. Putin came at the right time during Russia's metamorphosis."
To be continued
NATO and even Putin himself believe that the recent Ukrainian sortie improves Zelenskyy's negotiating position for the coming ceasefire talks, if ever, the Donbas region and Crimea in exchange for the Kursk Oblast. Both sides need a respite from this war, time to lick their wounds and regroup before resuming the conflict at some future date.
But this invasion is unraveling Putin's image as the strongman, destroying the myths he so judiciously built up over the years: Russia is impregnable and invincible, owning the second-largest army in the world. Putin's credibility is called into question, subjecting him to humiliation among his allies and to the world — and to his own people.
America and NATO are taking a curious stance. They have always cautioned Zelenskyy not to go beyond Ukraine's border and imposed restrictions on the use of Western weapons to strike targets deeper into Russian territory for fear Russia will respond in kind, expanding the war and engulfing Western and Eastern Europe and beyond. Ukraine's leaders have repeatedly requested NATO for weapons that can give them the capability to hit targets inside Russia itself, which NATO was reluctant to allow. Zelenskyy has sought authorization for long-range strikes on Russian air bases and other infrastructure used to pummel Ukraine's energy facilities and other civilian targets. Ukraine was grudgingly recently granted a squadron of F16 jets — which were presumably used to accomplish air dominance during this invasion. With this, Zelenskyy has handed them a fait accompli, stating, "It is crucial that our partners remove barriers that hinder us from weakening Russian positions in the way this war demands."
Implications of Ukraine invasion
This invasion has "presented a dilemma to Russia" — as Biden put it succinctly — yet NATO allies may have no choice but simply be "forced to good." Putin's saber-rattling on using tactical nuclear weapons has been silenced lately as he was warned by China against this alternative. And the immediate and total destruction of Russia in retaliation is a no-brainer.
Still, this invasion could provoke a significant backlash inside Russia as the tightly guarded press freedom and news dissemination of the massive evacuation of the population around Kursk filters the larger Russian populace, bringing the war uncomfortably close. Putin's leadership may be put to the test, undermining his authority, although no immediate change in leadership is expected as Putin has a firm grip on power. Nevertheless, Putin's hands-on involvement in the war has put the blame squarely on him, resulting in several of his generals being sacked and sent to the front and disappearing — if rumors are to be believed. This recent development reveals weaknesses in Russia's military readiness and morale. According to Ukrainian intelligence services, more and more soldiers of the Russian army want to lay down their arms; the number of Russian deserters has been higher than ever in the past weeks.
This invasion, gaining confidence for Ukraine, may lead it to seek and reclaim more territory and certainly lead to an escalation of hostilities. Putin and the Russian leadership will not tolerate Ukraine forces to be ensconced in Kursk for long. To retake the oblast, he will not spare the remaining population and its destruction as it did with the Ukraine cities around the Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
Overall, this temporary advantage to Ukraine will precipitate a reevaluation of NATO's support that could lead to calls for negotiations or a ceasefire. This is for the best interest particularly of the US now in the midst of a presidential election trending towards a Democratic win — a known factor to Ukraine. A Trump government with his admiration and schoolboy crush on Putin and the former's declaration to "end the war in one day" may prove to be a step towards unknown and uncharted territory.
Thus, the long-term consequences of this invasion could reshape the geopolitical landscape in Eastern Europe, leading to a reconfiguration of alliances, increased military presence of NATO in Eastern Europe, and a shift in the balance of power in the region.
Putin has threatened to get his forces in Kaliningrad to move into western Ukraine with no specifics, as Kaliningrad is Russia's enclave along the Baltic Sea and has no avenue toward Ukraine except through Lithuania and Poland — NATO countries. But it has sufficiently disturbed the three Baltic states — Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia — that they issued a chilling warning: they're prepared to send troops into Ukraine without NATO approval. Fearing Russia's growing aggression, these Baltic nations see themselves as next in line. With historical ties to the Soviet Union and recent Russian threats, they're taking matters into their own hands — preventing Putin from mimicking his American acolyte to "Make Russia Great Again!"
Antecedents of the war
To put things in proper perspective, this development in the Ukraine-Russo war brings us to its beginnings. In my March 2022 column, I traced the seeds of this conflict from the fall of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). "The collapse started on Premier Mikhail Gorbachev's watch when the USSR loosened its grip on the Eastern European countries (Soviets) composing the USSR, allowing them multi-party elections that began a slow process of democratization. This led to the destabilization of communist control, and the ensuing momentum caused the greatest modern symbol of communist Soviet hegemony to fall — the Berlin Wall."
America, the USSR's greatest Cold War rival, was not exactly gloating on the sidelines. Nevertheless, this was a humiliating blow to the hardline Russian communist elite — though the Russian people and the freed Soviet republics welcomed Gorbachev's reform agenda and subsequently President Boris Yeltsin's rapid economic reforms."
Around this time, too, was the rise of a despot. "One who witnessed the fall of the Berlin Wall was a KGB apparatchik, an undercover spy in East Germany named Vladimir Putin. The aftermath was chaotic for Russia, which lost 15 of its Soviets and 2 million square miles of territory, including the second biggest after Russia itself — Ukraine.
This was seen as the century's greatest geopolitical disaster, ushering in political and economic chaos in part caused by the unfamiliarity of capitalist concepts introduced after decades of socialism. This tectonic shift in the economic paradigm brought to the surface the shady part of capitalism — graft and corruption pervading all levels of bureaucracy. Putin came at the right time during Russia's metamorphosis."
To be continued
Published in
LML Polettiques
Thursday, 22 August 2024 01:51
Marcos vs Duterte — political dynasties collide
MY column last week elicited comments on the juicy Cathy Binag and the paramour's exposés on the snorting habits of the first family — particularly of Liza — and Malacañang's inner sanctum. This accusation has been met with deafening silence — except for half-assed denials and attempts at a weak defense by the President's men. This titillated the paramour, now riding high in her newfound notoriety, squeezing the last moments of her 15 minutes of fame, bragging that she is somewhat safeguarded by a coterie of military personnel or ex-military types — and her threat of further disclosures contained in a hundred USBs detailing further interesting vignettes of shenanigans by powerful politicians, to be automatically circulated if something untoward were to happen to her.
These incriminating extracts are the fruit of the 10-year dalliance with lover, former congressman Tony Boy Floirendo, in the corridors of power. He has been reticent through all these. And it could be the right response for a scion of one of Davao's leading families. Or the man is simply intimidated by the proverbial "Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned." But to be kind, Tony Boy may just be gentlemanly enough to protect his aggrieved but decent family — a famous wife and hardworking and private children.
But Binag's rendering may just be the opening salvo to the political skirmish between two political dynasties for control of political power in the coming mid-term elections that could impact the presidential election in 2028.
Inevitable collision of forces
Both the Marcos and Duterte families are the current leading political dynasties, with the other 100 or so Philippine dynasties realigning themselves for their own maximum advantage, from the oldest, the Ortegas of La Union, to the Garcias and Osmeñas of the Visayas, and the notorious Ampatuans and the Mangudadatus of Mindanao.
To put things in perspective, what precipitated the breakup of the 2022 Marcos-Duterte coalition was the ultimate question: Whose dynasty dominates and holds political power post-2028 and beyond? The Duterte patriarch was unhappy with Sara giving way to the Marcos scion for the presidency, allowing the Marcos resurrection. From this vantage point, the Marcos family sought to rehabilitate their own patriarch's image, burdened by the decades of martial law and the possibility of extending their own rule through their progeny.
This necessitated the defanging of rival heiress and president-in-waiting VP Sara, rendering her castrated as VP and education secretary ("Two presidents: Impact on mid-term elections," TMT, May 15, 2024). The accusation of BBM being "bangag" by Duterte and sons was the Deegong's response to Marcos allowing the International Criminal Court (ICC) to investigate further Duterte's vulnerabilities — his war on drugs and the deadly "Oplan Tokhang" that laid waste thousands of innocent lives, the extrajudicial killings (EJKs).
Revival of 2017-2018 illegal drug shipment
Cases against the Deegong's son, Davao City congressman Paolo, untouchable while he was vice mayor of Davao in 2017 during his father's presidency, are being revived, linking him to the $125 million narcotics bust, which he has denied. He was accused by then-senator Antonio Trillanes IV of being a member of a Chinese criminal syndicate — "complete with a 'dragon-like' tattoo with secret digits on his back."
Current House hearings by a so-called quad committee — made up of the Committees of Dangerous Drugs, Public Order and Safety, Human Rights, and Public Accounts — on illegal drugs, POGOs, illegal purchases of land and the war on drugs on Aug. 16, 2024, brought in a former customs intelligence officer Jimmy Guban who named Paolo Duterte; Manases Carpio, the husband of Vice President Sara; and Michael Yang, erstwhile Duterte Chinese adviser, as the owner of the container with magnetic lifters which were part of the shipment of shabu in 2018 worth P11 billion.
Davao City councilor Nilo "Small" Abellera was dragged in as the person who asked Guban to expedite the entry of shabu shipments that belong to "Michael Yang, Pulong Duterte and Mans" — Small's business partners, he being their trusted associate.
Guban, himself convicted of drug trafficking charges and whose credibility is questionable, further named former environment undersecretary Benny Antiporda for facilitating the release of the shipment from the Manila International Container Port (MICP).
This time, the above hearings were conducted at the Villa de Bacolor Convention Center in Pampanga as an offshoot of the ongoing circus of hearings that purported to show the government's crackdown on POGO hubs operated by Chinese high-rollers through Filipino cohorts.
Which hearings involved the participation of dismissed Mayor Alice Guo, accused of being a "Chinese sleeper-spy agent" ("The spy and the paramour," TMT, Aug. 14, 2024) and whose fingers are traceable to the Chinese POGO companies' land buying and operations in Pampanga.
This convoluted mishmash of hearings, revival of old cases, and accusations of criminality proven or unproven aired during grandstanding congressional hearings given space in mass media are fodder for this election season and this type of dirty politics practiced by people holding the reins of power. It is a sad testament to the type of politics being played by all sides: throw whatever dirt can be thrown and simply work on those that will stick.
ICC probe — Deegong's 'sword of Damocles'
Late in the Deegong administration, the International Criminal Court (ICC) conducted a full investigation of President Duterte for his alleged role in crimes against humanity during his controversial war on drugs. The investigation focused on allegations of extrajudicial killings and other human rights violations. But on November 21, Marcos, who was then "goody-goody" with the Deegong, acceded to the former's demand to suspend or quash the investigation as the Philippines was no longer a member of the ICC and that Marcos was already conducting its own investigations into the drug war.
However, in early 2023, the ICC decided to resume its investigation, stating that the Philippines had not genuinely investigated the alleged crimes. The Philippine government and Marcos did not object. Duterte, who has denied any wrongdoing, has been critical of the ICC and has stated that he would not cooperate with the court. Marcos, whose relations with the Dutertes have soured, allowed the ICC to continue its investigation. The Deegong, feeling BBM had crossed his red line, went ballistic. Thus began the flurry of accusations on BBM as "bangag"!
The pot calling the kettle black
If the paramour and the Dutertes are to be believed, we have a first family happily snorting together following the dictum of "a family that snorts together stays, prospers and rules together." But at whose expense, while the head honcho and the spouse together take the helm of the ship of state? It certainly brings to the fore the question of whether the president is sober enough or even fit to be president — and if not — can his responsibility be passed over to an unelected surrogate, his very powerful consort — similarly stoned!
On the other hand, we have a dysfunctional family from Davao — and if Marcos and his cohorts are to be believed, the male members are the main actors in the country's drive toward a narco-state. This puts us Filipinos between a rock and a hard place — or, for the mythologists — between Scylla and Charybdis.
God help us!
These incriminating extracts are the fruit of the 10-year dalliance with lover, former congressman Tony Boy Floirendo, in the corridors of power. He has been reticent through all these. And it could be the right response for a scion of one of Davao's leading families. Or the man is simply intimidated by the proverbial "Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned." But to be kind, Tony Boy may just be gentlemanly enough to protect his aggrieved but decent family — a famous wife and hardworking and private children.
But Binag's rendering may just be the opening salvo to the political skirmish between two political dynasties for control of political power in the coming mid-term elections that could impact the presidential election in 2028.
Inevitable collision of forces
Both the Marcos and Duterte families are the current leading political dynasties, with the other 100 or so Philippine dynasties realigning themselves for their own maximum advantage, from the oldest, the Ortegas of La Union, to the Garcias and Osmeñas of the Visayas, and the notorious Ampatuans and the Mangudadatus of Mindanao.
To put things in perspective, what precipitated the breakup of the 2022 Marcos-Duterte coalition was the ultimate question: Whose dynasty dominates and holds political power post-2028 and beyond? The Duterte patriarch was unhappy with Sara giving way to the Marcos scion for the presidency, allowing the Marcos resurrection. From this vantage point, the Marcos family sought to rehabilitate their own patriarch's image, burdened by the decades of martial law and the possibility of extending their own rule through their progeny.
This necessitated the defanging of rival heiress and president-in-waiting VP Sara, rendering her castrated as VP and education secretary ("Two presidents: Impact on mid-term elections," TMT, May 15, 2024). The accusation of BBM being "bangag" by Duterte and sons was the Deegong's response to Marcos allowing the International Criminal Court (ICC) to investigate further Duterte's vulnerabilities — his war on drugs and the deadly "Oplan Tokhang" that laid waste thousands of innocent lives, the extrajudicial killings (EJKs).
Revival of 2017-2018 illegal drug shipment
Cases against the Deegong's son, Davao City congressman Paolo, untouchable while he was vice mayor of Davao in 2017 during his father's presidency, are being revived, linking him to the $125 million narcotics bust, which he has denied. He was accused by then-senator Antonio Trillanes IV of being a member of a Chinese criminal syndicate — "complete with a 'dragon-like' tattoo with secret digits on his back."
Current House hearings by a so-called quad committee — made up of the Committees of Dangerous Drugs, Public Order and Safety, Human Rights, and Public Accounts — on illegal drugs, POGOs, illegal purchases of land and the war on drugs on Aug. 16, 2024, brought in a former customs intelligence officer Jimmy Guban who named Paolo Duterte; Manases Carpio, the husband of Vice President Sara; and Michael Yang, erstwhile Duterte Chinese adviser, as the owner of the container with magnetic lifters which were part of the shipment of shabu in 2018 worth P11 billion.
Davao City councilor Nilo "Small" Abellera was dragged in as the person who asked Guban to expedite the entry of shabu shipments that belong to "Michael Yang, Pulong Duterte and Mans" — Small's business partners, he being their trusted associate.
Guban, himself convicted of drug trafficking charges and whose credibility is questionable, further named former environment undersecretary Benny Antiporda for facilitating the release of the shipment from the Manila International Container Port (MICP).
This time, the above hearings were conducted at the Villa de Bacolor Convention Center in Pampanga as an offshoot of the ongoing circus of hearings that purported to show the government's crackdown on POGO hubs operated by Chinese high-rollers through Filipino cohorts.
Which hearings involved the participation of dismissed Mayor Alice Guo, accused of being a "Chinese sleeper-spy agent" ("The spy and the paramour," TMT, Aug. 14, 2024) and whose fingers are traceable to the Chinese POGO companies' land buying and operations in Pampanga.
This convoluted mishmash of hearings, revival of old cases, and accusations of criminality proven or unproven aired during grandstanding congressional hearings given space in mass media are fodder for this election season and this type of dirty politics practiced by people holding the reins of power. It is a sad testament to the type of politics being played by all sides: throw whatever dirt can be thrown and simply work on those that will stick.
ICC probe — Deegong's 'sword of Damocles'
Late in the Deegong administration, the International Criminal Court (ICC) conducted a full investigation of President Duterte for his alleged role in crimes against humanity during his controversial war on drugs. The investigation focused on allegations of extrajudicial killings and other human rights violations. But on November 21, Marcos, who was then "goody-goody" with the Deegong, acceded to the former's demand to suspend or quash the investigation as the Philippines was no longer a member of the ICC and that Marcos was already conducting its own investigations into the drug war.
However, in early 2023, the ICC decided to resume its investigation, stating that the Philippines had not genuinely investigated the alleged crimes. The Philippine government and Marcos did not object. Duterte, who has denied any wrongdoing, has been critical of the ICC and has stated that he would not cooperate with the court. Marcos, whose relations with the Dutertes have soured, allowed the ICC to continue its investigation. The Deegong, feeling BBM had crossed his red line, went ballistic. Thus began the flurry of accusations on BBM as "bangag"!
The pot calling the kettle black
If the paramour and the Dutertes are to be believed, we have a first family happily snorting together following the dictum of "a family that snorts together stays, prospers and rules together." But at whose expense, while the head honcho and the spouse together take the helm of the ship of state? It certainly brings to the fore the question of whether the president is sober enough or even fit to be president — and if not — can his responsibility be passed over to an unelected surrogate, his very powerful consort — similarly stoned!
On the other hand, we have a dysfunctional family from Davao — and if Marcos and his cohorts are to be believed, the male members are the main actors in the country's drive toward a narco-state. This puts us Filipinos between a rock and a hard place — or, for the mythologists — between Scylla and Charybdis.
God help us!
Published in
LML Polettiques
Friday, 16 August 2024 02:18
The spy and the paramour
OF late, I have been mulling the idea of shifting my columns away from several weeks of parsing out the US presidential elections and focusing back on the Philippine scene. Much has transpired lately, particularly of the salacious type: one, a made-for-TV documentary and the other, the "marites" kind. The first is the suspected Chinese sleeper-agent Mayor Guo of Pampanga, and the other is the exposé of a former paramour of a billionaire businessman crackhead on BBM and Liza as "polvoron-in-chiefs."
Deep-cover spies
"The Americans," a political thriller on Netflix that ran for five seasons (2013-2018), is about two Russian spy agents posing as an average American couple complete with family embedded into an American middle-class community at the height of the Cold War. The synopsis of the movie describes "... a pair of deep-cover Soviet KGB spies masquerading as a typical suburban Washington DC couple whose children, neighbors, coworkers and friends are completely unaware of their activities. At home, they're the stereotypical parents of stereotypical kids; at work, they pose as travel agents; but at night, they weave a web of confidantes, lovers, dupes and historical figures from the Reagan-era Cold War. The startlingly realistic plot twists force the viewer to consider the real cost of an undeclared war, what it takes to protect one's beliefs, if it's worth it, and if it actually worked for either side.
Philip and Elizabeth Jennings seem like the average American couple. Married for nearly 20 years, they have two children, masking a secret double life: they were planted in the US nearly 20 years previously. It is the early 1980s and the height of the Cold War, with Philip and Elizabeth at the forefront of the USSR's attempts to gain information on US activities and weaponry. Tasked with countering espionage and tracking down Soviet spies is a special division of the FBI."
Chinese sleeper agent
In the Senate hearings conducted by Sen. Risa Hontiveros, a real-life narrative is unfolding of a parallel scenario. Mayor Alice Guo of Bamban, Tarlac, has the makings of a true-to-life Chinese-run sleeper spy agent. Guo, a young lady unknown in the political circles but with a lot of cash, burst into the scene and won as town mayor.
What caught the eye of the public and the authorities was Guo's connection to the illegal Philippine offshore gaming operators (POGOs), online gambling services to the Chinese market. It is illegal in China but allowed to operate from the Philippines and proliferated at the start of President Duterte's administration. This could become a source of tremendous illegal funds, with its tentacles encompassing the political infrastructure of the country, if it had remained unchecked.
Consider what was revealed at the Senate hearings: 35-year-old Guo, who doesn't remember much about her childhood, had her birth certificate registered only on Nov. 22, 2005, years after her designated birth. The National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) presented documents that the certificate was fraudulently acquired from a certain Alice Leal Guo, born on July 12, 1986. It is a stolen identity. Further complications ensued as another "Chinese national Guo Hua Ping matched Mayor Guo's fingerprints, establishing they were the same person." ("Guo faces more cases as probe deepens" by Javier Joe Ismael, The Manila Times, June 29, 2024)
She couldn't remember much of her past, the house where she was born, no school records and no known high school classmates as she was reportedly homeschooled by a certain teacher named Rubilyn, whose existence couldn't be established.
The puzzle has become more complicated as it was established that before entering politics, the pig-raising private citizen Guo petitioned the Bamban municipal council to allow Hongsheng Gaming Technology Inc. to operate an 8-hectare POGO hub in Barangay Anupul with 36 buildings. This company later changed its business name to Zun Yuan Technology Inc. after Philippine authorities raided the place on charges of human trafficking and serious illegal detention in February 2023.
Bambam, Tarlac became one of the biggest hubs of POGO in central Luzon, with Mayor Alice Guo as the central figure. In this still unfolding drama, Hontiveros declared the Guo to be a Chinese "asset" trained to infiltrate and influence the Philippine government. Sen. Sherwin Gatchalian suspects that the assumption of Guo to political power signals that the Philippines "was entering the era of so-called POGO politics." ("Is Alice Leal Guo real?" by Tita C. Valderama, TMT, May 13, 2024)
In these coming months, Hontiveros and Gatchalian may yet establish Mayor Guo as just the tip of the iceberg of Chinese sleeper agents in the Philippines. The Office of the Ombudsman has ordered the preventive suspension of Mayor Guo.
The paramour
A few days back, a certain Cathy Binag was interviewed twice by Maharlika, a YouTube blogger whose posts about the Marcos family's alleged penchant for snorting "polvoron" — the street name for cocaine, an illegal drug — have been going viral. This was former President Duterte's bete noire that precipitated his war on drugs during his rule, which has now become the subject of an International Criminal Court (ICC) investigation. Cathy Binag did not mince words, implicating Liza Marcos, BBM himself, two of their children and a coterie of advisers and childhood friends of BBM and Cathy's paramour, former Davao del Norte congressman Tony Boy Floirendo. Another of the names dropped was that of former congressman Anton Lagdameo, Tony Boy's nephew, who is now presidential special assistant to BBM.
As a backgrounder, Tony Boy and Cathy were an item as "mag-un" in Visayan parlance, although both have long been separated from their respective legal spouses for several years. Cathy disclosed that their affair started in 2011 and that they lived together up to Feb. 17, 2021 — a good 10 years. Floirendo and Binag were hobnobbing with Manila's elite but were not really that much accepted by the conservative local elite — to which Floirendo belonged by blood or affinity. Floirendo put up a premier dining restaurant in Davao City called The White House offering Chinese fusion cuisine of "the best Szechuan dishes," complete with an imported Chinese chef and a cellar of expensive wines. This was overseen by Cathy, purported to be a gourmand herself. The restaurant closed after two years.
What was egregious about all these was that Cathy's revelations of Malacañang officialdom indulging in "polvoronic parties" were never picked up by mainstream media. I quote from TMT colleague Bobi Tiglao's column:
"Yet Philippine mainstream media, mainly the six big Manila-based broadsheets and tabloids, as well as the biggest broadcast outfits and the US-funded internet-only news outfit, have totally ignored this explosive story that reveals the character not only of President Marcos but also his innermost circle of friends since his college days. Mainstream media have not published nor broadcast a single news article, not a single opinion column.
"Even self-styled guardians of press freedom, especially the US-funded media outfits like Vera Files, Rappler, the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism, and the Center for Media Freedom and Responsibility, are exposed as minions by this Binag exposé. They have been totally silent on this issue." ("PH mainstream media betrays democracy" by Rigoberto D. Tiglao, TMT, Aug 12, 2024)
Go figure!
Deep-cover spies
"The Americans," a political thriller on Netflix that ran for five seasons (2013-2018), is about two Russian spy agents posing as an average American couple complete with family embedded into an American middle-class community at the height of the Cold War. The synopsis of the movie describes "... a pair of deep-cover Soviet KGB spies masquerading as a typical suburban Washington DC couple whose children, neighbors, coworkers and friends are completely unaware of their activities. At home, they're the stereotypical parents of stereotypical kids; at work, they pose as travel agents; but at night, they weave a web of confidantes, lovers, dupes and historical figures from the Reagan-era Cold War. The startlingly realistic plot twists force the viewer to consider the real cost of an undeclared war, what it takes to protect one's beliefs, if it's worth it, and if it actually worked for either side.
Philip and Elizabeth Jennings seem like the average American couple. Married for nearly 20 years, they have two children, masking a secret double life: they were planted in the US nearly 20 years previously. It is the early 1980s and the height of the Cold War, with Philip and Elizabeth at the forefront of the USSR's attempts to gain information on US activities and weaponry. Tasked with countering espionage and tracking down Soviet spies is a special division of the FBI."
Chinese sleeper agent
In the Senate hearings conducted by Sen. Risa Hontiveros, a real-life narrative is unfolding of a parallel scenario. Mayor Alice Guo of Bamban, Tarlac, has the makings of a true-to-life Chinese-run sleeper spy agent. Guo, a young lady unknown in the political circles but with a lot of cash, burst into the scene and won as town mayor.
What caught the eye of the public and the authorities was Guo's connection to the illegal Philippine offshore gaming operators (POGOs), online gambling services to the Chinese market. It is illegal in China but allowed to operate from the Philippines and proliferated at the start of President Duterte's administration. This could become a source of tremendous illegal funds, with its tentacles encompassing the political infrastructure of the country, if it had remained unchecked.
Consider what was revealed at the Senate hearings: 35-year-old Guo, who doesn't remember much about her childhood, had her birth certificate registered only on Nov. 22, 2005, years after her designated birth. The National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) presented documents that the certificate was fraudulently acquired from a certain Alice Leal Guo, born on July 12, 1986. It is a stolen identity. Further complications ensued as another "Chinese national Guo Hua Ping matched Mayor Guo's fingerprints, establishing they were the same person." ("Guo faces more cases as probe deepens" by Javier Joe Ismael, The Manila Times, June 29, 2024)
She couldn't remember much of her past, the house where she was born, no school records and no known high school classmates as she was reportedly homeschooled by a certain teacher named Rubilyn, whose existence couldn't be established.
The puzzle has become more complicated as it was established that before entering politics, the pig-raising private citizen Guo petitioned the Bamban municipal council to allow Hongsheng Gaming Technology Inc. to operate an 8-hectare POGO hub in Barangay Anupul with 36 buildings. This company later changed its business name to Zun Yuan Technology Inc. after Philippine authorities raided the place on charges of human trafficking and serious illegal detention in February 2023.
Bambam, Tarlac became one of the biggest hubs of POGO in central Luzon, with Mayor Alice Guo as the central figure. In this still unfolding drama, Hontiveros declared the Guo to be a Chinese "asset" trained to infiltrate and influence the Philippine government. Sen. Sherwin Gatchalian suspects that the assumption of Guo to political power signals that the Philippines "was entering the era of so-called POGO politics." ("Is Alice Leal Guo real?" by Tita C. Valderama, TMT, May 13, 2024)
In these coming months, Hontiveros and Gatchalian may yet establish Mayor Guo as just the tip of the iceberg of Chinese sleeper agents in the Philippines. The Office of the Ombudsman has ordered the preventive suspension of Mayor Guo.
The paramour
A few days back, a certain Cathy Binag was interviewed twice by Maharlika, a YouTube blogger whose posts about the Marcos family's alleged penchant for snorting "polvoron" — the street name for cocaine, an illegal drug — have been going viral. This was former President Duterte's bete noire that precipitated his war on drugs during his rule, which has now become the subject of an International Criminal Court (ICC) investigation. Cathy Binag did not mince words, implicating Liza Marcos, BBM himself, two of their children and a coterie of advisers and childhood friends of BBM and Cathy's paramour, former Davao del Norte congressman Tony Boy Floirendo. Another of the names dropped was that of former congressman Anton Lagdameo, Tony Boy's nephew, who is now presidential special assistant to BBM.
As a backgrounder, Tony Boy and Cathy were an item as "mag-un" in Visayan parlance, although both have long been separated from their respective legal spouses for several years. Cathy disclosed that their affair started in 2011 and that they lived together up to Feb. 17, 2021 — a good 10 years. Floirendo and Binag were hobnobbing with Manila's elite but were not really that much accepted by the conservative local elite — to which Floirendo belonged by blood or affinity. Floirendo put up a premier dining restaurant in Davao City called The White House offering Chinese fusion cuisine of "the best Szechuan dishes," complete with an imported Chinese chef and a cellar of expensive wines. This was overseen by Cathy, purported to be a gourmand herself. The restaurant closed after two years.
What was egregious about all these was that Cathy's revelations of Malacañang officialdom indulging in "polvoronic parties" were never picked up by mainstream media. I quote from TMT colleague Bobi Tiglao's column:
"Yet Philippine mainstream media, mainly the six big Manila-based broadsheets and tabloids, as well as the biggest broadcast outfits and the US-funded internet-only news outfit, have totally ignored this explosive story that reveals the character not only of President Marcos but also his innermost circle of friends since his college days. Mainstream media have not published nor broadcast a single news article, not a single opinion column.
"Even self-styled guardians of press freedom, especially the US-funded media outfits like Vera Files, Rappler, the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism, and the Center for Media Freedom and Responsibility, are exposed as minions by this Binag exposé. They have been totally silent on this issue." ("PH mainstream media betrays democracy" by Rigoberto D. Tiglao, TMT, Aug 12, 2024)
Go figure!
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This is really interesting, You're a very skilled blogger. I've…
Written by Merrill
on Thursday, 24 March 2016 12:35
Incompetence Kills
(LML Polettiques)
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