YES, you read it right. Either we have federalism or Duterte ends up a failure. That is the single most vital endgame that Duterte will put all his political capital on.

We never had any political reform in the past six years of BSA3. It was the Liberal Party (LP) lording it over business, government, civil society and the economy. They never cared. But they surely planned to hold on to power for three presidential terms. From 2010 with Aquino to 2016 with Roxas and 2022 with whoever Roxas wanted then as vice president in 2028. Eighteen years of LP would mean a sure succession for the party post-2028 and that is where another Aquino was supposed to come into the picture. But as Robert Burns said, “the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry.” And indeed it went awry for the LP.

Duterte apparently is better than BSA3 in the sense that he never blamed the previous administration for all the sins and faults he saw when he assumed the presidency. Unlike Aquino for whom it was all “blame Arroyo.” Interestingly, the sins and faults are being unearthed and cases are being filed to bring Aquino officials and the former president to the bar of justice. Much awaited is that of Mamasapano and PDAF/DAP and Comelec chairman Andy Bautista. A free ride areDengvaxia and Philhealth-Senior Citizens Fund, used for campaign purposes as well as Yolanda money and substandard housing. Much more will come out as we hit the midterm. RevGov in a democratic way is getting all these cases filed and decided. Imagine the change in the political landscape just by getting these cases acted upon.

Without much political reform, nothing will change in our politics and this is where federalism plays an important role in the Duterte narrative. Without federalism, Duterte’s administration will be painted as a failure. Just like the failure in the illegal drugs campaign will erode legacy.

Thus, Duterte needs to appoint a presidential adviser on federalism. He needs to define his minimum structural requirements for the kind of federalism he is thinking of. It cannot be that others will define it for him. He has done his listening tours on federalism and he knows what will work and will not. He also knows what is wrong with our politics and what needs to be done. The presidential adviser on federalism will be the “timon.” He will crack the whip and get things done in the timeframe that Duterte wants. Why? Because the national agenda since 2016 has solely been defined by Duterte. A strong executive leader with a penchant for political hedging, only Duterte knows where and when we are going and the danger there is that technocrats will have to follow him fast so analyses are made before the decision gets implemented. Duterte is all action and not much analysis. That is why he is all gut and emotion.

With a presidential adviser on federalism appointed and reporting directly to the president, a cabinet cluster can be organized to get all the needed government data on taxes, budget and assets per province so that the baseline of information is put together to make sense of how best to evolve a federal structure in the country. Economies of scale would be the initial factor to consider. The bigger the land area in transition, the better for all. And as we evolve into federal, more regions can be made at the local level, petitioning the parliament for its creation. No, it cannot be the present 17 regions. That has been a failure. Four to 5fivefederal regions would be the ideal so there is not much shock to the system. These can be NCR, Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao as the four regions, or North Luzon, NCR, South Luzon, Visayas and Minsupala as the five regions.

We should not look to other foreign models because we already had a history of a unicameral parliament, with government headed by the prime minister and the president being the head of state under the 1973 constitution. A parliament ensures the development of political parties in the country. A parliament fuses the executive and legislative functions thus ensuring coordination and collaboration as well as training the next leaders of the nation. A parliament also allows the growth of a shadow government for the opposition. Enough of the personality-based, identity-centricpolitics that is so expensive. More of citizen-based, programmatic political parties that are bound by ideologies, team strength and common vision.

Timing is very important in politics. If the 17th Congress fails to pass a federalism law, the incoming 18th Congress elected in May 2019 may just be the right time to push for a RevGov option done democratically through an expanded people’s initiative. Everyone is new and only the president, vice president and the 12 senators (a continuing body) have life terms. The people’s initiative is an exercise of direct democracy and with the approval ratings of Duterte remaining high, unlike previous presidents at this period, and if his chosen candidates at the local and national win, moving the needle for federalism may just get a break.

Our economy is sound. The fundamentals are good. Only the redistribution of wealth needs careful tweaking so that there is bias in favor of equity and social justice. What has placed us in this rut is our politics, and until we get the reforms done, we will never sustain our gains. The only way we can get political reform in place is via federalism. The first step is May 2018, during the barangay elections. The second is May 2019, securing the victory of Duterte’s choices. The third is getting the initiative going. The fourth is to approve the federal constitution. And the fifth is ensuring a smooth and viable succession. Failure in any would compromise Duterte’s legacy.