Last of 3 parts
THE first and second parts of this series depicted the incipient clash of the Marcos and Duterte dynasties as a mere backdrop to the geopolitical dynamics, a minor curtain raiser of playing the world stage. America finds itself in a state where its hegemony is threatened by old and new nemeses Russia and China but mainly exacerbated by its own internal dynamics and weaknesses (this will be taken up in future columns).
America's global credibility and prestige are in question as, in the recent past, it has been confronted with several global conflicts threatening its hegemony in Europe and Asia. It has escaped being bogged down deeper in the Middle East with its humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq, but the damage to its reputation as a global superpower and purveyor of the light of democracy suffered incalculable damage. The Afghanistan debacle and the swift takeover of the Taliban was a tragic mirror image of its defeat in Vietnam and the takeover of the Viet Cong during the Johnson-Nixon years.
The aftermath of its virtual withdrawal from Iraq after its precipitate intervention to eliminate weapons of mass destruction based on faulty intelligence while promoting democracy post-Saddam was a study of American hubris and incompetence. It resulted instead in sectarian violence and the birth of the terrorist IS, tarnishing America's image as a force of stability in the region.
Ukraine-Palestine
And just recently, the Republicans have threatened to defund the Ukraine war, potentially emboldening Russia to further escalate its military actions in the region. This could lead to increased instability in Eastern Europe and strain US relations with its European allies that support Ukraine.
And the US was recently blindsided by Israel's response to Hamas, unable to rein in an ally in the total destruction of Gaza and the decimation of its population. With the end of the conflict not on the horizon, more instability and violence could further damage US influence in the Middle East, impacting its already capricious relationships with allies in the region.
Trump presidency
In November of this year, the US may have President Trump back in power if he hurdles all those civil and criminal cases hanging over his head. And if MAGA does triumph, Ukraine will be the first casualty — a feather in Putin's cap. Trump's perceived coziness to the Russian dictator could result in driving the final nail in Zelenskyy's coffin.
A second term for Trump could lead to further alienation of the Palestinians and spell the death throes of any progress toward a two-state solution. It may be noted that Trump, in an in-your-face move against the Arabs and Palestinians, caused the transfer of the US Embassy to Jerusalem during his watch when even Israel was not expecting the same. And his belligerency may further precipitate violent reactions from Iran and Hezbollah and those Arab states which are just itching for a fight on the side of Hamas to expel the Israeli forces now decimating Gaza.
And PH participation?
"Suma total," these are the geopolitical dynamics that need to be imputed into the equation of the seemingly local and harmless Marcos-Duterte rivalry. BBM's actuations toward America are in far contrast to Duterte's anti-American and pro-Chinese/Russia proclivities. With BBM's kiss-ass "friends to all, enemies to none" foreign policy, he is proving himself to be a better bet to America for its hegemony. Duterte's kowtowing to Xi Jinping, his histrionics from the time he assumed the presidency, and his slanderous remarks against President Obama while America was putting in place its Pivot to Asia strategy were dangerous, amateurish, puerile and reflected ignorance of geopolitics and the course of history. As in most of his decisions that did not involve illegal drug eradication and extrajudicial killings, they were precipitated and made on the fly.
US bases — America returns
The expansion of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) upon the assumption of BBM to power not only reaffirms the mutual cooperation with America but, more importantly, assures America that this time, the US and the Philippines under the Marcoses are on the same page. The additional EDCA bases bolstering the US strategic maritime containment restricting sea access for Russia and China, isolating both in the East and South China Seas and away from the Western Pacific by the second island chain, has always been the cornerstone of America's defensive posture in Asia — and the major impetus to the US Pivot to Asia.
And the role of the Philippines to hold the line — bleeding for America, if we must — is now even made more critical with China constructing unsinkable "aircraft carriers" with their artificial islands at the Spratlys. The additional four EDCA sites in the Philippines — US virtual military bases — have tactically tightened the sea lanes in the Bashi Channel, the main route for China's forces to encircle Taiwan in case hostilities break out. ("TMT Bashi Channel — where we go to war"! TMT, June 7, 2023.) Kaohsiung in southern Taiwan, its largest container port, less than a hundred miles from the tip of Northern Luzon, handles 62 percent of its cargo volume. US forces will have to supply Taiwan through Kaohsiung from US pre-positioned logistics in bases in the Philippines and Japan and the main route for America's reinforcements from Guam and Hawaii.
Thus, with the pro-American BBM clearly singing America's tune, the next generations may spell the permanent return of the Marcos political clan, whose members are now ensconced in critical elective positions, more numerous and better placed than even during the time of the dictator.
BBM may need to play a game similar to what his father did with his anti-communism during America's post-WW2 red paranoia. Ferdinand Makoy and his martial law regime and avid pro-Western stance held the fort for America during the Nixon-Reagan years. And with the Marcoses firmly entrenched as America's alter ego in Asia, Philippine surrogacy of American and Western ideals is assured.
Cuidao, BBM-DU30-Quiboloy
Although not major cogs now in the scheme of things, Duterte's and Quiboloy's plight simply reflect the ability of America to exact its pound of flesh. Quiboloy's criminal cases, extradition, and even the ownership of SMNI are now hanging in the balance. And so are the cases at the ICC against former president Duterte. Former presidents have never been immune to the wrath of America and allies in the West who hold the levers of international justice. Many have been hauled before the courts: Omar al-Bashir, the former president of Sudan, indicted in 2009; Laurent Gbagbo, former president of Ivory Coast, in 2010-2011; and Jean-Pierre Bemba, former vice president of the Democratic Republic of Congo, convicted in 2016.
More egregious scenarios are sitting presidents deposed with the involvement or support of the United States in various regions around the world: Manuel Noriega of Panama; Salvador Allende of Chile; Jacob Arben of Guatemala; Jean-Bertrand Aristide of Haiti; Mohammad Mossadegh (Iran); Ngo Dinh Diem (South Vietnam); Saddam Hussein (Iraq); and Muammar Gaddafi (Libya). The list goes on.
These are cautionary tales for BBM and the Marcos political dynasty!
Second of 3 parts
BORROWING from the playbook of President Duterte, the current Philippine Congress, now under the direction of the Marcoses, has moved to defang the SMNI, Pastor Quiboloy's flagship, threatening to withdraw its congressional franchise — a not-so-subtle move by Speaker Ferdinand Martin Romualdez, the self-appointed Marcos heir to contest the 2028 presidency. Romualdez comes with an impeccable bloodline, a son of Kokoy Romualdez, Imelda's favorite brother and martial law billionaire who at one time was named by Forbes as the 30th richest man in the Philippines — whose wealth Cory's Presidential Commission on Good Government (PCGG) claimed to be ill-gotten. Martin's cold-blooded political acumen may be gleaned from the ouster of his erstwhile ally, then House senior deputy speaker Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (GMA), an avid supporter of VP Sara. It may be noted that Martin was the campaign manager of Sara when she ran for vice president.
Now, we run full circle. VP Sara, the heiress-apparent of the fledgling political dynasty from the South, is a hindrance to the Marcos clan seeking to consolidate its hold on the country. It is imperative that she be dislodged from her current high perch, which could catapult her to the presidency in 2028.
Qiboloy's continuing travails
In the meantime, the dismantling of Quiboloy's media empire may have been relegated temporarily to the backburner pending the outcome of the Senate hearings on Quiboloy himself, where he is more vulnerable as sordid testimonies have reached salacious proportions meant to denigrate his person. This could be a much better strategy toward the eventual dismantling of SMNI by exposing Quiboloy's decadent, prurient and undisciplined appetites, as shown by a parade of young women-victims, incongruously called "pastorals — they who serve," ministering to the "Son of the Father" with daily evening full-body massages and providing testimony not only to this debauchery but outright accusations of sexual molestation and even rape.
Sen. Risa Hontiveros, champion of women's rights, is blind to the irony of having these women relive their experiences, humiliatingly marching them in front of cameras, knowing full well that these hearings, "in aid of legislation" will not in any way establish the innocence or guilt of Quiboloy. This is the wrong venue. The courts are. This circus is designed simply to titillate and entertain the masses. The PR mileage for the senator and her cohorts is incalculable.
However, this hearing has hit a snag as Quiboloy, under threat of contempt, ignored a subpoena and refused to appear before the Hontiveros committee. This snub, a slap in the face of the Senate, reflects the inutility of secular power before the bizarre, self-professed majesty of the "Son of God." But Quiboloy's allies — Senators Padilla, Bong Go, Imee Marcos and Cynthia Villar — came to his defense, a shrewd investment for future electoral votes — if Quiboloy goes scot-free.
So, the Senate is in a quandary as to what to do about this rebuff. Will he be declared in contempt and detained if caught? To the ASOG, this could be a welcome development better than any telenovela, as this will, in his disturbed mind, precipitate the second but virtual crucifixion of the "Appointed Son" — enhancing his reputation among his alleged 6 million members worldwide.
My kingdom is also of this earth
In his February 21 rant, Quiboloy went ballistic in taking the side of the Dutertes with rhetorical and non-sequiturs obliquely accusing BBM, Liza and the first family of having sex orgies and drug sessions in Malacañang on Tuesdays and Fridays. And even hiring a voodoo expert from Africa and witchcraft from India.
He is now in hiding for fear of assassination and CIA "rendition," a euphemism for kidnapping similar to practices during US President Dubya Bush's administration when al-Qaida terrorists were "renditioned" to Guantanamo in Cuba — a US base — to be investigated and oftentimes tortured, skirting US mainland laws.
And the ASOG has the bravado to demand that BBM, Liza and Martin Romualdez step down, having lost the Filipinos' trust. And in dramatic fashion declared, "I am no longer alive — I am a living dead! I will lead this country for justice and fear of God! I have already seen my mansion in heaven — where I had been countless times."
Apparently, Quiboloy is carving another role for himself aside from his heavenly mandate — a secular leadership of the Filipino people, perhaps heading an uprising of some sort.
These rantings curiously are a common phenomenon to beleaguered, demented religious cult leaders seeking faux martyrdom. BBM laughed these all off and dismissed these histrionics. Somehow, BBM has to resolve this nuisance with his Senate and congressional allies.
America — the 'miron'
Overarching all these, America's not-so-subtle sanction slowly tightens the noose around Quiboloy's neck. A warrant of arrest has been unsealed by a California judge, paving the way for Quiboloy's extradition to the US for alleged crimes involving sex trafficking, child abuse, and sexually abusing young girls and forcing them into prostitution. Some of Quiboloy's co-defendants are already in FBI custody, under indictment; some have confessed, and trials may begin soon. It may be noted that in 2021, Quiboloy's private plane was seized in Hawaii, but it has been returned to him since. However, the $350,000 in small bills found in the plane were confiscated. Apparently, the offices of the Kingdom of Jesus Christ (KOJC) in mainland US and Hawaii have been closed, and their properties have been sequestered.
The extradition request will have to go through the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) for evaluation before going to the Department of Justice (DoJ). This could be accelerated as the DoJ has refiled a case of sexual abuse, which was already dismissed in Davao in 2020. This will strengthen the request for extradition. It may take some time before Quiboloy is extradited to the US — if ever. But this is ultimately BBM's call. In another development, the Deegong has been appointed as administrator of properties belonging to the KOJC.
Closing scenario
At the end of the day, in this internecine political fight between Filipino political dynasties — the Marcoses and Dutertes, with their surrogates Sara, Martin and Quiboloy — are all minor actors, playing supporting roles as far as America is concerned.
America really doesn't care who wins in the end between these two protagonists as long as Uncle Sam's interests are ascendant and protected. The Marcoses have the upper hand now. But any deviation from this scenario that America has long preordained for its role in Asia will spell the survival of any system of government. BBM only knows this too well, having witnessed the decades-long relations of his father with Uncle Sam until Makoy outlived his usefulness. The same can be said of the Dutertes, seeing how the Deegong is now fighting tooth and nail against the International Criminal Court (ICC) over the resumption of the investigation of his human rights cases on the extrajudicial killings (EJK). The political cognoscenti can see the hand of America with the acquiescence of the Marcoses on these bold moves now that Duterte is himself vulnerable.
Next week: The geopolitical ramifications of the clash of political dynasties.