Last of 3 parts

THE first and second parts of this series depicted the incipient clash of the Marcos and Duterte dynasties as a mere backdrop to the geopolitical dynamics, a minor curtain raiser of playing the world stage. America finds itself in a state where its hegemony is threatened by old and new nemeses Russia and China but mainly exacerbated by its own internal dynamics and weaknesses (this will be taken up in future columns).

America's global credibility and prestige are in question as, in the recent past, it has been confronted with several global conflicts threatening its hegemony in Europe and Asia. It has escaped being bogged down deeper in the Middle East with its humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq, but the damage to its reputation as a global superpower and purveyor of the light of democracy suffered incalculable damage. The Afghanistan debacle and the swift takeover of the Taliban was a tragic mirror image of its defeat in Vietnam and the takeover of the Viet Cong during the Johnson-Nixon years.

The aftermath of its virtual withdrawal from Iraq after its precipitate intervention to eliminate weapons of mass destruction based on faulty intelligence while promoting democracy post-Saddam was a study of American hubris and incompetence. It resulted instead in sectarian violence and the birth of the terrorist IS, tarnishing America's image as a force of stability in the region.

Ukraine-Palestine

And just recently, the Republicans have threatened to defund the Ukraine war, potentially emboldening Russia to further escalate its military actions in the region. This could lead to increased instability in Eastern Europe and strain US relations with its European allies that support Ukraine.

And the US was recently blindsided by Israel's response to Hamas, unable to rein in an ally in the total destruction of Gaza and the decimation of its population. With the end of the conflict not on the horizon, more instability and violence could further damage US influence in the Middle East, impacting its already capricious relationships with allies in the region.

Trump presidency

In November of this year, the US may have President Trump back in power if he hurdles all those civil and criminal cases hanging over his head. And if MAGA does triumph, Ukraine will be the first casualty — a feather in Putin's cap. Trump's perceived coziness to the Russian dictator could result in driving the final nail in Zelenskyy's coffin.

A second term for Trump could lead to further alienation of the Palestinians and spell the death throes of any progress toward a two-state solution. It may be noted that Trump, in an in-your-face move against the Arabs and Palestinians, caused the transfer of the US Embassy to Jerusalem during his watch when even Israel was not expecting the same. And his belligerency may further precipitate violent reactions from Iran and Hezbollah and those Arab states which are just itching for a fight on the side of Hamas to expel the Israeli forces now decimating Gaza.

And PH participation?

"Suma total," these are the geopolitical dynamics that need to be imputed into the equation of the seemingly local and harmless Marcos-Duterte rivalry. BBM's actuations toward America are in far contrast to Duterte's anti-American and pro-Chinese/Russia proclivities. With BBM's kiss-ass "friends to all, enemies to none" foreign policy, he is proving himself to be a better bet to America for its hegemony. Duterte's kowtowing to Xi Jinping, his histrionics from the time he assumed the presidency, and his slanderous remarks against President Obama while America was putting in place its Pivot to Asia strategy were dangerous, amateurish, puerile and reflected ignorance of geopolitics and the course of history. As in most of his decisions that did not involve illegal drug eradication and extrajudicial killings, they were precipitated and made on the fly.

US bases — America returns

The expansion of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) upon the assumption of BBM to power not only reaffirms the mutual cooperation with America but, more importantly, assures America that this time, the US and the Philippines under the Marcoses are on the same page. The additional EDCA bases bolstering the US strategic maritime containment restricting sea access for Russia and China, isolating both in the East and South China Seas and away from the Western Pacific by the second island chain, has always been the cornerstone of America's defensive posture in Asia — and the major impetus to the US Pivot to Asia.

And the role of the Philippines to hold the line — bleeding for America, if we must — is now even made more critical with China constructing unsinkable "aircraft carriers" with their artificial islands at the Spratlys. The additional four EDCA sites in the Philippines — US virtual military bases — have tactically tightened the sea lanes in the Bashi Channel, the main route for China's forces to encircle Taiwan in case hostilities break out. ("TMT Bashi Channel — where we go to war"! TMT, June 7, 2023.) Kaohsiung in southern Taiwan, its largest container port, less than a hundred miles from the tip of Northern Luzon, handles 62 percent of its cargo volume. US forces will have to supply Taiwan through Kaohsiung from US pre-positioned logistics in bases in the Philippines and Japan and the main route for America's reinforcements from Guam and Hawaii.

Thus, with the pro-American BBM clearly singing America's tune, the next generations may spell the permanent return of the Marcos political clan, whose members are now ensconced in critical elective positions, more numerous and better placed than even during the time of the dictator.

BBM may need to play a game similar to what his father did with his anti-communism during America's post-WW2 red paranoia. Ferdinand Makoy and his martial law regime and avid pro-Western stance held the fort for America during the Nixon-Reagan years. And with the Marcoses firmly entrenched as America's alter ego in Asia, Philippine surrogacy of American and Western ideals is assured.

Cuidao, BBM-DU30-Quiboloy

Although not major cogs now in the scheme of things, Duterte's and Quiboloy's plight simply reflect the ability of America to exact its pound of flesh. Quiboloy's criminal cases, extradition, and even the ownership of SMNI are now hanging in the balance. And so are the cases at the ICC against former president Duterte. Former presidents have never been immune to the wrath of America and allies in the West who hold the levers of international justice. Many have been hauled before the courts: Omar al-Bashir, the former president of Sudan, indicted in 2009; Laurent Gbagbo, former president of Ivory Coast, in 2010-2011; and Jean-Pierre Bemba, former vice president of the Democratic Republic of Congo, convicted in 2016.

More egregious scenarios are sitting presidents deposed with the involvement or support of the United States in various regions around the world: Manuel Noriega of Panama; Salvador Allende of Chile; Jacob Arben of Guatemala; Jean-Bertrand Aristide of Haiti; Mohammad Mossadegh (Iran); Ngo Dinh Diem (South Vietnam); Saddam Hussein (Iraq); and Muammar Gaddafi (Libya). The list goes on.

These are cautionary tales for BBM and the Marcos political dynasty!