THE announcement of President Biden's quitting the race on the weekend after the four-day circus-like enthronement of Trump as a cult leader at the GOP convention was a stroke of genius. In one fell swoop, the afterglow turned into a chilling gloom when Biden pulled the rug from underneath the basically Biden-centric GOP campaign strategy. They didn't have a plan B. There were no issues on public policies that Trump can boast of during his four-year term comparable to Biden's, except for his false claims on how good the economy was under him and how he caused the Supreme Court to reverse Roe v. Wade. Now, he had to backtrack on abortion and leave the issues to the states. A confusing reversal that is costing him women's votes. Thus, he had to skirt discussions on public issues, the economy, foreign relations and, more particularly, the Covid pandemic — where Trump, with his criminal incompetence, caused the death of hundreds of thousands of Americans. The lingering image of Trump's stupidity is his suggestion to arrest and cure Covid by passing a light through the body and injecting bleaching agents defines his sad response to America's pandemic tragedy. The man is insane!

From exultation to despair

But this week, the Democrats wrested the initiative away from the Republicans and nullified their three-week euphoria — from the debacle of that debate to the Supreme Court Trump-complicit ruling on presidential immunity, the quashing of the criminal charges on the illegally acquired classified document cases; and the failed assassination attempt.

The latter was made more controversial, with a very late FBI report released 13 days after the incident. "I took a bullet and live," he bragged. Apparently, a bullet fragment or broken shard of glass from the teleprompter hit his right ear. In a tongue-in-cheek meme that went viral, a more appropriate statement should have been, "I survived an assassination attempt by a teleprompter." This is not to belittle the incident, which was despicable in American politics and unacceptable by any measure in civilized society. But given Trump's play for hyperbole, people become somewhat jaded by his overtures.

But the unprecedented declaration of Biden last Sunday caught many by surprise. The Democratic leadership, of course, anticipated Biden's move as they have in the past week been giving hints that the old man must go. The man had a glimpse of where he stood at this particular moment in American history. Biden's giving up the presidential race for the Democratic Party and, more importantly, for the American people is yet the most eloquent act he has done. It was no less than bold. It was heroic! "It's not about me. It's not about one person. It's about our country. It's about our democracy!" With that, he establishes his place among the rarified pantheon of great American presidents.

Trump in panic — terrified

Vice President Kamala Harris has been endorsed by Biden to take his place and would now be the Democratic presidential nominee. Kamala is 59 years old, and the total contrast between the two potential opponents is palpable. Kamala is an excellent and hardworking prosecutor experienced in dealing with criminals and convicted felons. In her first speech to her campaign HQ, she said: "I have been a prosecutor. I know Trump's type — a predator who abuses and preys on women. A fraudster who ripped off consumers... cheaters who broke the rules for their own gains."

For months, Trump and the GOP touted Biden as senile and old. Biden's act of taking himself away from the fray altered the equation. Trump is now the senile old candidate ever — older even than the hero of the once formidable GOP, Ronald Reagan, before MAGA perverted the Republicans, who was 73 as a presidential candidate in his second term. Trump is now 78. Aside from his senility, his campaign speeches showed a cognitively impaired individual, slurring his speeches, his thoughts wandering about, prone to recounting non-sequiturs during MAGA campaign rallies of "the battery, the shark and the swimmer... and Hannibal Lecter." But what struck fear in Trump is the creeping clamor for him to also do a Biden. The temptation to likewise replace Trump for the same reason Biden is being replaced is compelling — age and senility, plus dementia, to boot.

The Republican strategists are panicking about the entrance of a Black woman — with an intellect far surpassing that of the Donald and an excellent debater who could eat Trump alive in any debate. Trump may have been precipitate in picking up his "mini-me" in J.D. Vance. In retrospect, Nikki Haley, the apostate turned ass-kisser, now appears to have been the better choice and could even turn out to be the perfect replacement for Trump — if Donald even had half the courage and patriotic sense of Biden. The GOP Nikki Haley-J.D. Vance tandem could be a passable Republican alternative.

America's clear choices

With Biden out of the picture, the political conversation leading toward November could now be framed more clearly. It has been the conventional thinking that America didn't have clear choices in this election. Two spent old men both attacking each other for their personal incapacities — not much on the policies and program of government that would redound to the benefit not only of their constituents but of the world — as America assumes its responsibilities as world hegemon. Biden simplified the divide by passing on the torch of political leadership to a much younger set of leaders and a totally new paradigm. Kamala Harris personified this. A black working professional woman, who paid her dues breaking glass ceilings reaching the pinnacle of political life as senator and vice president. One can just imagine the path Kamala had to navigate amidst the white male-dominated politics.

Contrast this with Trump, the convicted felon, a scam artist, and a rapist. He passed himself off as a billionaire casino owner who went bankrupt six times with more than a dozen businesses, from an airline to hotels, magazines and a university that had to close. He only paid $750 in federal income taxes the year he won the presidency. He is a racist adored by neo-Nazis and white nationalists. This list could go on and on. The choice is now clear between the Trump kleptocracy and chaos versus Kamala's competence.

Trump and the GOP are running out of options, reduced to attacking Kamala for her race and gender. All they can do now is dig dirt and turn the political conversation into ad hominem attacks. Trump's initial public speeches describe Kamala as "a bum," rejecting his advisers' caution against such inarticulate and puerile attacks, pinning her instead on the failures of the Biden administration. On the other hand, it's a no contest as Kamala, the prosecutor, knows precisely how to handle criminals. She has sent her fair share to the slammer.

But the end of the MAGA tandem may be in sight. The lackluster J.D. Vance is an embarrassment, a liability and there is a growing movement among the disgruntled Republicans to replace his doppelgänger. They may have to scrape the barrel for a last-minute replacement. Nikki Haley may yet see her star rise.

WHILE this column is being written, Biden announced he is out of the presidential race. By this act, he alters the dynamics of American politics in favor of the Democrats. Trump, Speaker Johnson and the leaders of the GOP are in a panic. But the MAGA and the "baskets of deplorables" will fail to appreciate the ramifications of this tectonic political shift.

But I am way ahead of my narrative. Let me lay the predicate — from the viewpoint of an outsider looking into American electoral politics.

Yes, it is puzzling and impossible to digest after Trump's full three-week run of good fortune starting on June 27. From that fateful debate, where Biden's mental lapses hidden from the public have been exposed as he performed well below expectation, overshadowing Trump's lies and fraudulent claims on how good his economic record during his presidency was. The week's hot streak for Trump continued with the Supreme Court granting him near-total immunity for his official presidential acts and Judge Aileen Cannon's dismissing Trump's criminal case on charges that he illegally retained classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago club. Fate seemed to have conspired as the week culminated with Trump's surviving an assassination attempt a few days before the GOP convention that marked him "God's anointed one." It was this brush with death and his iconic photographs of him pumping fists that formed the backdrop and the lead intro to his dramatic entrance at the convention. There, in Milwaukee, the enthronement of a convicted felon was consummated. And the Republican party transformed itself into a cult of personality. The capture of the once venerable conservative political party of Lincoln, undoubtedly one of the greatest American presidents, was total.

Witness the delegates wearing bandages on their right ears as a mark of devotion to the new messiah, which can be construed too as a "stigma diabolicum" — the mark of the devil as in the days of witchcraft. The GOP four-day coven also brought in line the heretics who displayed total supplication to Trump. Nikki Haley, Trump's erstwhile primary opponent who declared earlier shefelt no need to kiss the ring, delivered a rousing speech endorsing Trump. But the prize goes to Trump's VP choice — JD Vance who was the epitome of hypocrisy. He was on record declaring that "I'm never a Trump guy, never liked him, a terrible candidate... idiot if you voted for him... might be America's Hitler... an a**hole." And he bent his knee.

The anomaly these past weeks was that after the debate, the onus fell on Biden to prove his capability for the US presidency despite his excellent record compared to Trump's failed presidency on the economy, the handling of Covid and a host of other metrics. This was exacerbated by the Democrats' penchant for committing "hara-kiri," clamoring for his replacement after a single debacle of a debate. But this could be a blessing in disguise. There was no clamor for Trump, whom the Republican Lincoln Project members have dubbed as authoritarian-prone and a dangerous man, unfit for the US presidency.

Silver lining for Democrats

Jonathan Freedland, a British journalist writing for The Guardian, opined (July 19, 2024): "Donald Trump's run of good luck could end this weekend — if Joe Biden does the right thing." And the right thing is for Biden to make the supreme sacrifice for America — by giving way to any of the leading lights in the Democratic Party. Freedland's thesis is that Trump's entire campaign has been predicated on Biden as his opponent. Trump and MAGA's strategy is Biden-specific, framing the campaign between the weak old Biden against Trump.

Now that Biden is out, the Democrats have little more than 100 days — enough time to wrest the initiative from Trump. Freedland sees three campaign-altering scenarios. First, media attention will shift to the Democrats speculating on a younger nominee, not necessarily Kamala Harris. And the limelight shifting away from Trump is hurtful to this narcissistic megalomaniac. This leads to the second consequence, negating Trump's argument of his running against a senile opponent — making Trump the oldest cognitively impaired candidate. The third scenario is this new Democratic kid in the block will take the wind out of the sails of Trump's anti-incumbency "change message" or "pagbabago" (in Filipino). And I may add a fourth element. The pressure to replace the other senile old man becomes palpable.

The polls would be upended, portraying a different voting profile. Americans have long been torn between two senile men. No longer! The choice would now shift to Trump, himself a senile old man, against any younger Democrat.

Throwing a Hail Mary

This act by Biden will be more than familiar to football-loving Americans. With 100 days to go, a newly invigorated Democratic team is throwing a Hail Mary pass. After months of the GOP/Democrats fight that showed the American people and the world how insanely competitive elections are in the United States — like a football game running out of minutes — it is coming to a deadly end. Wikipedia defines a Hail Mary pass as "a very long forward pass, typically made in desperation, with an exceptionally small chance of achieving a completion with seconds to spare. Due to the difficulty of completion with this pass, it makes reference to the Catholic "Hail Mary" prayer for strength and help."

"The expression goes back to the 1930s when it was used publicly by two former members of the Notre Dame team. Originally meaning any sort of desperation play, a Hail Mary pass gradually came to denote a long, low-probability pass attempted at the end of a half when a team is too far from the end zone to execute a more conventional play, implying that it would take a miracle for the play to succeed. This pass could produce the game-winning touchdown."

The term became widespread after an NFL playoff game on Dec. 28, 1975, when Dallas Cowboys quarterback Roger Staubach said about his game-winning touchdown pass to wide receiver Drew Pearson, "I closed my eyes and said a Hail Mary."

Going back to the GOP, the MAGA and the unthinking cult, how long will the euphoria of the debate, the court rulings favoring Trump and the afterglow of the failed assassination last and dominate the psyche of the American voters? It could be ephemeral for the independents, the Democrats, and the American people. These people think and vote!

Freedland's closing statement: "The stakes are too high, for the US and the world, to let Democrats cede the 2024 contest to Trump, which is what a continued Biden candidacy would do. The hope is that Biden himself reaches that conclusion... and performs what will be his last great act of public service (and he did — author's note). Because whatever the Republican faithful may say, this decision is not in the hands of the Almighty — it is in the hands of human beings who, whatever their fears and frailties, need to act and act now."

Biden, you've done great service to America. This Hail Mary pass could be the perfect strategy!

AS this is being written, an assassination attempt on Trump failed. The bullet grazed his ear. We wish Trump a quick recovery and mourn the loss of life of an unfortunate bystander. Political violence of any kind, in any shape or form, in lieu of serious discussions on political issues, is horrific and unacceptable. Sen. Bernie Sanders, aghast at this vile deed, has this to say: "We should make politics boring again, a serious discussion of the serious issues facing this country and not the harsh rhetoric that we have heard in this country for the last number of years."

This incident, to some extent, is a product of the despicable rhetoric that has dominated American campaign politics, exacerbated by candidate Trump in 2016. But as to the political fallout, this assassination attempt may have won him the 2025 election today.

To anticipate his presidency, this column will quote heavily from "Aftermath," a four-minute video clip created by the Lincoln Project, Republicans disgruntled by Trump. The clip encapsulates a purported 900-page document produced by the Heritage Foundation, a conservative political think tank, on the MAGA plan to take over every part of the federal government, purging decades-long civil servants and replacing them with "the baskets of deplorables." The document "Project 2025" (P25), translates in detail the thoughts and intentions of Trump. Its existence, acknowledged by Trump in his "Truth Social," is internally circulated. He coyly disavowed authorship yet praised the content of the documents, wishing the authors "Good luck!" 

'Aftermath: Project 2025'

The scenario starts with the oath-taking of the 47th president on Jan. 20, 2025, upon the defeat of President Biden, whose debacle has been assured by the fragmentation of the Democratic Party coalition of liberals, blacks, non-white male, women, organized labor and the college-educated, among others, after the June 27 debate, courtesy of the clamor of the Democratic Party stalwarts led by its elite to have him replaced as presidential candidate. That debate exposed Biden's natural senility and the rambling lies of Trump. Yet no similar outcry was initiated on Trump whose prevarications have been his staple since he entered public life.

On the day President Trump seizes control of a divided government, he signs hundreds of executive orders (EO) implementing P25. One calls for the replacement of 50,000 civil servants by hardline MAGA loyalists. Trump, promising retribution, orders his newly manned justice department to arrest the Jan. 6, 2020 Commission members who conducted and caused the incarceration of his cohorts in the Capitol attack. Current and former Department of Justice employees perceived to be his political opponents will be apprehended for treason and election interference conspiracy. He declares all these as official acts — counting on the protection of the Supreme Court based on their recent doctrine of total immunity for official acts of the presidency.

Migration

By EO, he ends birthright citizenship. This is one of the cornerstones of the diverse cultural infusion by immigrants, enriching America's cultural heritage. US citizenship is acquired in two situations: by virtue of a person's birth within US territory or because at least one of the parents was a US citizen at the time of the person's birth. Under the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution, this principle, jus soli, is enshrined.

This EO turns millions of American-born and legalized citizens legal US residents and green card holders into illegal aliens overnight. Hundreds of thousands are imprisoned in newly built camps. And mass deportation begins. Protests erupt all over, becoming more intense and violent. President Trump invokes the Insurrection Act, declaring that the protest is a danger to American sovereignty. The Insurrection Act of 1807 — a federal law that empowers the president to deploy US military and federalized National Guard troops within the US in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection or rebellion — is invoked. He orders the National Guard to use deadly force and, in the wake of bloody violence, declares martial law nationwide, awarding himself new powers under a freshly signed American Sovereignty Protection Order, which defines protested immigration policies as non-protected speech and a threat to National Security.

Civil War 2.0

Governors of the states of New York, California, Illinois and other Democratic Party-dominated states declare their opposition, refuse compliance and assert the states' prerogatives. Trump orders their arrest. With the proliferation of guns in the country, pockets of resistance ensue. Trump pardons every Jan. 6, 2020 Capitol attacker, including those who assaulted the police, presenting them with presidential medals and honoring them. The Proud Boys, with a smattering of White Supremacists who bared their true nature in Charlottesville, are to be the new armed militia augmenting the US military.

Trump's defense secretary, a disgraced ex-general, fires 400 generals and admirals, leaving the military leaderless and the Pentagon in the hands of MAGA adherents. Other appointees purged the rank of the CIA, FBI and the apparatus under Homeland Security.

Values reformation

The Department of Education, renamed the Department of American Values, mandates a Christian nationalist curriculum for all schools receiving federal aid. Islamic teachings and practices may be relegated to the strict confines of madrassahs in mosques. Trump, joined by speaker Johnson and evangelical leaders, announces the Department of Health and Human Services with reclassified policies making IVF treatment impossible to legally administer.

Trump reverses one campaign promise by declaring a national abortion ban and a new federal data-sharing program so states can monitor women's periods. Thousands of American women are detained while crossing state lines on suspicion of seeking abortion.

Values reformation

The Department of Education, renamed the Department of American Values, mandates a Christian nationalist curriculum for all schools receiving federal aid. Islamic teachings and practices may be relegated to the strict confines of madrassahs in mosques. Trump, joined by speaker Johnson and evangelical leaders, announces the Department of Health and Human Services with reclassified policies making IVF treatment impossible to legally administer.

Trump reverses one campaign promise by declaring a national abortion ban and a new federal data-sharing program so states can monitor women's periods. Thousands of American women are detained while crossing state lines on suspicion of seeking abortion.

Trump 2028 and beyond

Sometime during his regime, Trump announces he will run for a third term, claiming that he was cheated in the 2020 elections. The Supreme Court ultimately agrees with his interpretation, paving the way for Trump's 2028 reelection.

The Lincoln Project creators have this voice-over at the end of the video clip: "If you hear all these that it isn't possible, then ask yourself. What did you believe was impossible just eight years ago? This isn't a fantasy and is Trump's plan and his counting on you to believe, it couldn't happen."

Be a True Believer! Vote Trump! Destroy America!

Voters' sympathy coats Trump with the cloak of invincibility after that failed assassination. But will the same sentiments prevail 90 days from today?

THIS week's column is my fifth on American politics since the Donald was enshrined in the pantheon of America's celebrated villains as a convicted felon. The equivalent notorious personalities in American history — the likes of Benedict Arnold and Charles Manson, among others, come to mind. We will also discuss in passing the first debate between two old men, representing the best or worst of US politics; on one side, a senile aging warhorse, Biden; on the other, a cognitively impaired, compulsively lying Trump. Last Thursday's encounter was a battle of perception and one-upmanship. Biden was nowhere. From the start, his gait was slow, his voice was raspy, and his gaze was frozen, reinforcing his senility. Where was the energy?

On the other hand, there was Trump, aggressively in control of the conversation, with much energy spewing out the same old lies in sound bites, playing the artful dodger, not answering the questions directly but projecting an image of a winner, not a whiner. He won this one.

But partisans have made up their minds all along. One debate will not convince them otherwise. It is the independents, undecided and the fence sitters who will be the arbiters come November 5. Meantime, the spin doctors on both sides will have their megaphones redirecting their arguments toward what, for them is really important. They will have to attempt to change the face of the issues these coming weeks.

Meantime, I quote a critic of my last week's column, a certified proud MAGA, "...I don't want to discuss the private character of Trump. As I have said in the past, the man is flawed. However, as president, his POLICIES are the best I have seen so far... that is why the TDS are not hitting the benchmark because it's all personal attacks on Trump's character."

"It Was All a Lie" (Stuart Stevens, Knopf Doubleday, 2021). This book contradicts MAGA's allegations: "President Bill Clinton's administration was the greatest modern-day economic success story. He was the only president in recent memory who was able to balance the US budget. He even presided over the first budget surplus since 1969." In retrospect, Clinton, a Democrat (1993-2001), presided over the longest period of peacetime economic expansion in American history.

But Joe Biden's record is not that bad either. "The US economy reaches superstar status," bannered The Atlantic (Roge Karma, June 10, 2024); "S&P 500 breaks 5,000 for first time in history," reported Forbes (Derek Saul, May 14, 2024); "Crime on the Decline: Murders likely fell at record speed last year," wrote The New York Times (German Lopez, Jan. 11, 2024); and "Unemployment rate remains below 4% for the 27th consecutive month," MSNBC reported (Steve Benen, May 3, 2024).

But this is not a battle of statistics. It is more than that, as articulated by critic Rolly Narciso, an MBM mid-60 classmate, "Just on one factor — decency — Trump already fails miserably. Add a second key factor — integrity — he again definitely fails. He is an impulsive, non-thinking guy. Just another rabble-rouser..." Considerations of decency and integrity, litmus tests for a leader's character, trump economic data anytime.

As erroneously portrayed by MAGA, Trump's was not the economic miracle. In line with the fake news and lies that they are expert at concocting, even their statistics are always predicated on the statement, "Let's look at Trump's first two years in office" — 2017-2019, where he benefited from the residual effects of the previous US administration's policies. But to be fair, I must grant Trump's successes by his own right early, the first 24 months: high employment rate, bringing back manufacturing from China; a more than decent GDP growth, the economy was in good shape, etc. Unfortunately, the upward trajectory could have continued were it not for Covid-19 derailing the world's economy.

"I Alone Can Fix It" (Carol Leonnig/Philip Rucker, Penguin Press 2021). And here is where Narciso's arguments about a leader's decency and integrity become relevant. Other countries, with their kind of responsible leadership, surmounted the crises. But not the kind of leadership Trump exhibited. And I cite excerpts from the above-titled book.

The pandemic by end of 2019 started to ravage the world economy. But in America Trump did his part to exacerbate the devastation. Not only was he slow to appreciate the threat posed by Covid-19, but he rejected the advice of his own experts and even dismantled the National Security Council directorate at the White House, set up previously by President Obama to confront similar contingencies, to prevent America from being blindsided by pandemics.

The directorate was set up in the wake of the past outbreak of SARS — a coronavirus and H7N9 strain of the "bird flu." Experts were convinced it was a matter of time before another similar respiratory disease would erupt. But Trump, decided that "containing the virus would cause economic havoc, and the economy was his ticket to victory in the coming 2020 presidential election." Trump's pandemic response was shaped by political calculation, not science.

Dismissing all professional opinions and experts, he even suggested that injecting bleach and inserting light into the body might prevent the virus' growth. Simple precautionary protocols like wearing masks were discarded. He himself refused to wear one because masks made him look "weak." Toward the end, his administration had given up the fight against Covid. On the last full day of Trump's term in 2021, 400,000 Americans died of Covid.

A summer of deadly protest

Trump's obsession with his self-image, a disastrous flaw in his character, shaped his responses to subsequent crises. In Minneapolis, 46-year-old George Floyd, a Black man, died under police custody when an officer knelt on his neck for nine minutes despite Floyd's pleading — "I can't breathe," more than 20 times. Floyd's name was the latest in a long list of Black Americans who posed no threat to law enforcement and were killed anyway. This incident and others precipitated bigger protests all over the country. The "Black Lives Matter" movement took off. When these protests became intense, Trump's response was no less than a reflection of his racist tendencies. Calling these legitimate protesters thugs, he was inflammatory: "When the looting starts, the shooting starts."

Laying predicate of 2020 elections

By this time, Trump's poll ratings were in a free fall. It was around September 2022 that the first sign that Trump was brewing up an unprecedented constitutional crisis came up. When asked by a journalist if he'd commit to a peaceful transfer of power, Trump later tweeted that the coming election in November would be the "most inaccurate and fraudulent election in history." And Joe Biden was "the worst candidate in history." If Biden beat Trump, it could only mean one thing: the election had been rigged.

True enough, because all votes coming in show Biden leading the electoral college, Trump declared victory in the presidential election before all the votes had been counted. Trump's efforts to retain the presidency led to a final showdown culminating in the deadly riot at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. His last stand!

To be continued