West Philippine Sea (WPS)
This Philippine debacle started during PNoy's presidency. This tragedy has been recounted time and again ad nauseam by a colleague at the TMT, reminding us of the transgressions of the Aquino family, the debauchery of the "yellow army," along with the righteousness of the Chinese communist causes, and the wickedness of the American system of governance.
So, if we may direct BBM's government to review the facts, he may fashion a foreign policy that could extricate the country from this mess and perhaps elevate the country among the developed economies in Southeast Asia for the remainder of his term.
But first, a recitation of facts on the WPS from the voluminous published research by the above TMT colleague, who I agree with most of the time, were it not for his inelegant ad hominems. These timelines are augmented from the easily accessible Google.
Timelines
April 8, 2012: A standoff began when a Philippine Navy vessel tried to arrest Chinese fishermen for illegal fishing within Panatag Shoal (Bajo de Masinloc). Chinese Maritime vessels came to their rescue, aborting the arrest. The next day, PNoy ordered a Philippine warship, the BRP Gregorio del Pilar, to confront the Chinese. Big mistake! This allowed China to capture the high ground, portraying the Philippines as the aggressor — militarizing the confrontation.
April 10 – May 31: In the ensuing days, the Philippine government sought US intervention, invoking the 1950 US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT). The US refused as there was no cause. Here, the events were entangled with the US and Philippine governments playing the game of "he said, she said," exacerbated by a shady Philippine senator authorized by PNoy for a backdoor channel to China's similarly shady characters. A resolution was purportedly arrived at for a simultaneous withdrawal of Chinese and Philippine vessels from Panatag — saving face for all parties. PNoy was further assured by Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario that US negotiators got the Chinese to agree on a simultaneous withdrawal.
June 15, 2012: The Philippines withdrew its vessels from Panatag Shoal. The Chinese did not. China now controls Scarborough (Panatag), establishing de facto sovereignty.
Jan. 22, 2013: The US government persuaded PNoy to file a case against China with the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) at The Hague, challenging China's territorial claims in the South China Sea.
June 30, 2016: President Rodrigo Duterte assumed the Philippine presidency, and those party to the WPS debacle, PNoy and del Rosario, were out of jobs, washing their hands of this dastardly act.
Arbitral ruling
July 12, 2016: The arbitral tribunal at The Hague issues its ruling in favor of the Philippines, invalidating China's "nine-dash line" claim and affirming the Philippines' rights in its EEZ. It recognized that the Philippines has sovereign rights to exploit the resources in these areas.
The ruling also declares that China's activities at Panatag (interfering with Philippine fishing activities) violated these rights. And China's claims based on historic rights were inconsistent with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (Unclos).
On the other hand, none of the features in the Spratly Islands are capable of generating an exclusive economic zone (EEZ), and none of these are islands under Unclos, meaning human habitation or economic life of their own cannot be sustained. But more importantly, on maritime entitlements, the tribunal determined that certain areas in the South China Sea, including Scarborough Shoal and certain parts of the Spratly Islands, fall within the Philippines' EEZ.
China never did participate in the arbitration process, rejecting the ruling as "nothing more than a piece of useless paper." It was universally understood too that the ruling is unenforceable.
Duterte govt (2016-2022)
Duterte from the very start of his regime showed preferential treatment for China, veering away from America. He didn't want to rub China's nose in the arbitral ruling award and promptly paid obeisance to Beijing with his famous "I love Xi Jinping" on one of his visits to Beijing. And the country was amply rewarded with baskets of goodies. Acknowledging the arbitral ruling, he never used this as a negotiating instrument with China, except for his braggadocio of a statement that Philippine sovereignty over the WPS was non-negotiable but with a limp addendum: "China has the big guns — I don't have. I can't let my soldiers die," signaling his helplessness — incapable of looking for alternatives. And the bullying continued to the present regime.
Marcos govt — the proposal (2022...)
More than a hundred diplomatic protests filed against China fell on deaf ears. Inane Senate resolutions elevating these problems to the UN General Assembly were passed. And always, the demand for budget increases — the traditional source of corruption — to bolster Philippine defense capabilities. All are off-tangent to the realities vis-à-vis China.
China is the rising hegemon in the East, and in this multipolar world, we are the ants amidst the dancing elephants. China has demonstrated time and again that it can ignore with impunity the diminishing importance of dispute resolution and America's cherished ideals of the rule of law. China will not make the mistake of creating an excuse for America to intervene on our behalf under the 1950 MDT agreement. And America will not go to war over pieces of real estate in the WPS. What if China, our biggest economic partner in the East, decides to take over Ayungin Shoal by attrition? So, what now?
The best course of action before this happens is for BBM to put the arbitral ruling in our back pockets and go mano-a-mano on a charm offensive with China, which China has been doing with other countries in the SCS. Look at Vietnam, now similarly situated with its own claims to the Paracels. Start a dialogue and negotiate. Vietnam's FDI from China has gone through the roof compared to the Philippines. BBM's enemies would consider this a surrender. So, what?! Let's fight another day.
Start a bilateral dialogue with Xi Jinping.
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