Second of a series

THE first part of this series was a description of a possible solution to the war through the lens of a political technocrat, Victor Davis Hansen — decidedly an admirer of Trump. Predictably, Trump, in a childish pique, suspended military aid to Ukraine. This could be lifted pending Zelenskyy's total and complete humiliation by way of public apology — bending the knee, as demanded by the Trump mafia-like cabal.

After Zelenskyy flew to Europe in the immediate aftermath for a summit of NATO/European leaders, Europe verbalized its intent to increase their contribution to Ukraine's war effort.

This second part is the assessment of Dr. Vladimir Brovkin, a Russian-born US historian and author who has written articles on the Russian revolution, communism and the Soviet experience.

The trap

Brovkin's take on last week's spat at the White House is kinder to Trump and harsher on Zelenskyy. Fresh from meetings with Macron of France and Starmer of the UK, prior to Feb. 28, Zelenskyy ostensibly was to bring the same message which the two prime ministers had unconvincingly presented to Trump weeks before: the Europeans want to be involved in Ukraine once a cease-fire with Russia was in place by stationing peacekeeping troops.

Trump was noncommittal as the implications could be deadly to America — a possible trap when future agreements are violated and hostilities break out. NATO's Article 5 automatically takes effect. This cornerstone of the alliance simply means "an attack on one is an attack on all." The US is obligated to step in and back the European troops. For Trump, who has had tiffs with other NATO members for non-fulfillment of their commitment to spend 2 to 3 percent of their GDP to defense, this was a big no-no! He has often threatened to opt out of NATO compelling them to up the ante — a typical bully tactic — forcing Europe to arm itself and perhaps go it alone, not spilling American blood.

Zelenskyy, the darling of the US Democratic Left and the Europeans, went into this lion's den — a MAGA territory, overconfident. Video clips show him rudely interrupting Trump, hogging the limelight, delivering the same song and dance number that Putin is evil and can't be trusted and Ukraine's cause is just. The optics were bad for Zelenskyy whose sense of entitlement did not go well with a bigger ego in the room.

Trump's position — Ukraine's surrender!

But Trump and Vance were prepared to shoot down Zelenskyy. It started with a classic art of the deal gambit. "You don't have the cards. You couldn't have survived three days without US help. We can't fund this war forever ... Ukraine can't fight forever ... we have to bring this thing to a close."

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Trump was harsh. In front of an international audience, no doubt with an eye to his Russian buddy. He gave Zelenskyy a chance to accept his grasp of reality, while giving away negotiating chips for future talks:

Ukraine can't win this war; Ukraine has to cut losses and must conclude a deal. This must have warmed the cockles of Putin's heart. Briefly, Ukraine survives minus the Donbas, Crimea and the current Russian-occupied Ukrainian oblasts. No NATO membership ever, and Ukraine remains neutral.

On security matters, VP Vance made clear that "...if Ukraine wants real security guarantee and ensure that Putin will not invade Ukraine in the future, Ukraine has to give Americans economic upside in the future of Ukraine." America needs to have a long-term stake in the country rebuilding its economy — perhaps a mini-Marshall plan akin to one implemented in 1947. The minerals deal would provide the wherewithal. This was Trump's pathway to peace — the only way!

Where Zelenskyy sits

But how does this fit into the big picture? Dr. Brovkin identified other stakeholders. The Ukraine establishment is firmly in control of the National Maidan (the nationalist group that emerged after the Ukraine regime change in 2014). This was the revolution staged-managed by the CIA ("Closing act to Putin's war," TMT, March 16, 2022) that eventually catapulted Zelenskyy to power. Accordingly, "they would rather die than conclude anything with the Russians."

Also, there's a huge constituency of Ukraine families of those killed at the front wondering what their sons, daughters and husbands did die for. With Trump threatening to abandon NATO, Europe may not have the military capability — for now. The US has, but may no longer want to be involved in a war fought across the Atlantic Ocean far from American soil that could escalate into a nuclear war.

From where Putin stands

Putin vehemently belies this unnatural bromance with Trump and the accusation that Trump does Putin's bidding. Putin's strange protests reinforce Trump's assertion that he works for the interest of Ukraine — which happens to be congruent to the Russian dictator's. The end game sees the winning side — Russia gains something; while the losing side, Ukraine, merely survives. This is the Trump/Putin win-win scenario for peace.

Roughly, Putin's four positions are outlined thus: 1) Ukraine must remain neutral and no NATO membership; 2) Russia retains the four major oblasts now Russian-occupied; 3) Ukraine must be demilitarized; and 4) the country must undergo de-Nazification.

Putin demands further guarantees. The dissolution of NATO to be replaced by a new security architecture arrangements that may even include Russia itself, enforced by a new international treaty defining the borders of countries within Europe and Russia. The details can be determined during the negotiations.

Kremlin generals

Russian politics is complicated and secretive. Putin's views are not universally accepted. The Russian generals and nationalists form a formidable group with positions more drastic than those of Putin/Trump. The occupied oblasts are not enough booty of war. They want the entire Novorossiya — shades of the old Russian empire that would include the region immediately north of the Black Sea and Crimea, including the port of Odessa; and the entire left bank of the Dnieper and the Russian-speaking provinces.

Economic cooperation with US will strengthen the Russian oligarchs and the business elite, silenced at the moment, which could assert political power. They would rather that power shifts to the patriotic Russians who have come to the fore during the war.

And regime change is a must. Zelenskyy has to go together with the Nationalist Maidan/Bandera regime in Kiev and the installation of a "Russia-friendly" neighbor.

The changing tides

After World War II, the United States assumed a pivotal role in shaping the geopolitical landscape. Its actions and policies from this period established it as a dominant global power and a key architect of the new international order. In his ignorance, Trump who does not read and is illiterate on world history, inadvertently upended the geopolitical dynamics, accelerating the emergence of a multipolar world.

Europe, long weakened by their dependence on an ally, who is now unreliable, must step up to the plate. Trump serendipitously accomplished what he has bullied Europe all along — a unity described by a Polish Premier Donald Tusk as "500 million Europeans, asking 300 million Americans to defend them against 140 million Russians."

This could mean Europe could go it alone and fight a war in solidarity with Ukraine against Trump's best buddy, Putin.