Centrist Democracy Political Institute - Items filtered by date: May 2020
Wednesday, 06 May 2020 04:38

The new normal — where are we at?

THE world today is undergoing cataclysmic changes, whose ramifications we may not comprehend fully well into the next generations. What we glimpse now of our future are simply vignettes seen through the prism of current realities, already distorted these past five months by the contagion. We reach out to the past for comparative clarity yet see only instances of similar horrific plagues. The world has been ravaged from time to time and, only a century ago, the 1918 Spanish flu killed millions in its wake; and our collective consciousness refusing to accept the inevitability of analogous results — nevertheless, the Damocles’ sword hangs over our heads. Perhaps this is part of the new normal, impelled by intermittent visits of a contagion that forces a global reset.

This column focuses this time on Philippine concerns. We just have to get on with our lives with the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) among us, permeating every aspect from our behavior to our leadership’s concepts of governance. Thus, we pick up from where we left off pre-Covid-19.

ABS-CBN
If there is anything bizarre resulting from the virus, it is that our attention was diverted away from compelling local issues prior to January 2020. These disputes were propelled by trepidations punctuated by President Rodrigo “Deegong” Duterte’s anger. I refer to his distaste for a segment of the Philippine oligarchy and the elite. At some point, the President showed his disdain for the ABS-CBN Corp.’s haughty demeanor over the years and threatened to let its franchise expire. ABS-CBN’s current 25-year franchise, which was approved by virtue of Republic Act 7966 (granted March 30, 1995), ended on March 30, 2020. However, it was actually to have expired last Monday, May 4, 2020, giving the franchisee several days to wind things up. But news from the grapevine is that the Senate and the House, principally the allies of the Lopezes, are now frantically, though surreptitiously, working out a modus vivendi for the franchise renewal. While the President and the executive branch were focused on meeting the Covid-19 threat head-on, our enterprising legislators were concerned with the vital task of serving the oligarchy. By the time this column is out, the May 4 deadline would have lapsed, and the people will have been presented a fait accompli.

Water concessionaires
Summer is upon us and the problems of water availability will become acute. What happened to the negotiations between the government and the water oligarchs? Before Covid-19, the President gave them an ultimatum, for “Manila Water Co. Inc. and Maynilad Water Services Inc. to accept a new draft of water contracts or the government would terminate their concession deals and take over their water distribution services.” In my column of Feb. 5, 2020, I specifically mentioned: “The water concessionaires may notch this one up in PRRD’s win column — for now. But time is on their side, not the President’s and, more importantly, the systemic anomalies of governance that produced the oligarchic class in the first place, will kick in sometime under the guise of the rule of law, protected by a flawed Constitution. Or they may just call DU30’s bluff, with both sides indulging in a zero-sum game. No winners, but we the people are the losers.”

Visiting Forces Agreement
I also asked rhetorically “What is the Deegong’s endgame?”

To refresh our memories, DU30 with an incongruous knee-jerk reaction triggered by the cancellation of the United States visa of his favorite ex-policeman and now senator, Ronald dela Rosa, the Deegong decided to scrap, right there and then the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) agreement with the US. I wrote on Feb. 19, 2020: “To get into the act, the Senate came up with a hurried ‘sense of the senate’ to cover for its castration of its role as guardian of treaties and agreements from which the VFA, EDCA (Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement), MDT (Mutual Defense Treaty) emanate. As an afterthought, the more reasonable cabinet members have called for a deep review and thus coat the presidential faux pas as a face-saving result of DU30’s long-term assessment of the sporadic transgressions on Philippine sovereignty by America — not the invalidation of the US visa of his favored senator.”

The Philippines’ Chinafication
Before Wuhan exported the virus to the Philippines and to the world, mainland Chinese Philippine overseas gaming operators were already in situ with all the appurtenances of a conquering small army. I wrote then: “Reports are trickling down that the mainland Chinese and Hong Kong triads could be the perpetrators (of crimes among their own communities). And with the appearance of these transnational syndicates, peripheral criminal activities are not far behind.”

This has much relevance, especially at this time. If conspiracy theories are to be believed, China has definitely come out on top as their factories are now in full swing serving the health-care needs of the world from personal protective equipment, to masks, to HazMat’s, to ventilators and possibly the vaccine against Covid-19.

Faux pas on seniors and ‘Balik Probinsya’
Recently, the administration came up with a not so well-thought-out mandate to disallow persons 60 years old and above from breaking the enhanced community quarantine/general community quarantine, practically imprisoning them indoors. Although the motives were noble, the result could have been disastrous. Which brings us to the simple lesson that in a crisis environment, DU30 needs to be surrounded by good crisis managers, dispensing good and timely counsel, and not amateurs and political hacks prone to recommending public policies now and reversing themselves the next day.

And confronted with almost insoluble problems, the President allowed his favorite mouthpiece to present a knee-jerk palliative to what amounts to be a reverse migration to the provinces encapsulated in a tired piece of sloganeering — ‘Balik Probinsya.’ Depopulating congested slums in cities are an old festering problem of public policy that has confronted administrations from way back to the time of Imelda Marcos. This needs a clear vision, planning and the wherewithal. We do this now? The pasaway will certainly take the offer. They will go home, receive whatever is coming to them and after the crisis, they will seep back into theer city hovels. The solution needs a wholistic approach not a singular diktat from the presidency.

These are just a few of the concerns that the Deegong and the whole government need to face, with one eye fixed towards the raging but hopefully tamable pandemic. The stance of the elite and the oligarchy these past weeks may have softened the perspectives of the president with their cooperation and contribution toward the success of the lockdowns, enough to grant them long-term concessions for short-term gains. On this, the pandemic and the consequent hundreds of deaths may prove serendipitous for the oligarchy. A small price to pay. As I have always suggested, in the long run, in this country, the oligarchic class and the elite are in control. The government and political leadership of the moment are simply allowed a display of the worn-out and cliché-laden ‘political will.’ Despite the ongoing Covid-19, the new normal is after all, a rehash of the old normal. God help us if this were the case.
Published in LML Polettiques
Tuesday, 05 May 2020 07:04

END OF ECQ

Editorial cartoon.
Published in News
Tuesday, 05 May 2020 07:01

POGO

Editorial cartoon.
Published in News

WASHINGTON — There has been a barrage of contradictory claims in recent days about how U.S. officials believe the coronavirus emerged from the Chinese city of Wuhan, what evidence they have and when President Donald Trump was first briefed about it.

Here is what we actually know:

When was Trump first briefed on the intel about the coronavirus?

As NBC News has reported, U.S. intelligence agencies first detected signs of a health crisis in Wuhan in November and began producing intelligence reports on the issue in December. Intelligence reports first appeared in the president's briefing book, known as the President's Daily Brief, in early January, according to NBC News' reporting. The brief is written for the president, but it also goes to certain Cabinet officials and top advisers.

The National Security Council began meeting about the coronavirus in early January, according to NBC News' reporting.

But according to multiple officials, Trump rarely, if ever, reads his written intelligence product. On Sunday, Trump said he was first briefed on Jan. 23.

"On January 23, I was told that there could be a virus coming in but it was of no real import. In other words it wasn't, 'Oh, we've got to do something, we've got to do something.' It was a brief conversation, and it was only on January 23," Trump said during a Fox News town hall Sunday.

Did the virus really emerge accidentally from a Chinese lab?

Despite Trump's comment Thursday that he has seen information that gives him high confidence that the outbreak was the result of an accidental release from a Wuhan laboratory, U.S. intelligence officials told NBC News that they have made no such assessment. There is no "smoking gun" evidence pointing them in that direction, they say, and there may never be.

Intelligence officials stand by the public statement put out Thursday by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which said that the intelligence community has concluded that the virus was not man-made but that it had reached no conclusion about whether it emerged accidentally from a lab or was transmitted to humans through animals.

NBC News reported last week that the White House has tasked the intelligence community with investigating that and other questions about the origin of the virus, the extent to which China covered it up and whether the World Health Organization was complicit in the cover-up. Some critics have raised the concern that the White House is pushing the intelligence agencies to validate a conclusion that helps it politically, by distracting attention from the question of whether it acted soon enough. China and the WHO deny that they were less than forthcoming, and China says the virus couldn't have come from one of its labs.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Sunday on ABC that "there is enormous evidence ... I can tell you that there is a significant amount of evidence that this came from that laboratory in Wuhan." But he declined to detail the evidence, as did Trump when he was asked about it.

Two White House officials told NBC News that by saying he'd seen convincing evidence, Trump wasn't saying he'd seen an intelligence assessment.

Scientists and virologists say a far more likely explanation is natural transmission from animals to people. But experts and U.S. officials say a good deal of circumstantial evidence points to an accidental release. No one has credibly suggested that the virus was engineered by humans. Pompeo said he accepted the scientific consensus that the virus was naturally occurring.

Two labs in Wuhan were studying coronaviruses, experts told NBC News: the Wuhan Institute of Virology, or WIV, and the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, shorthanded as the Wuhan CDC. Researchers from both facilities collected the virus samples from bats in caves. The goal of the research was to learn more about a family of viruses that had already been proven lethal to humans in the 2002 SARS outbreak.

In the accidental release scenario, a worker at one of the labs could have become infected and transmitted the virus to others. Those who suspect such a lab release point to the following:

---A Jan. 24 study published in the medical journal The Lancet found that three of the first four cases — including the first known case — didn't provide a documented link to the Wuhan wet market.

---The bats that carry the family of coronaviruses linked to the new strain aren't found within 100 miles of Wuhan — but they were studied in both labs.

---Photos and videos have emerged of researchers at both labs collecting samples from bats without wearing protective gear, which experts say poses a risk of human infection.

---A U.S. State Department expert who visited the WIV in 2018 wrote in a cable reported by The Washington Post: "During interactions with scientists at the WIV laboratory, [U.S. diplomats] noted the new lab has a serious shortage of appropriately trained technicians and investigators needed to safely operate this high-containment laboratory."

---According to Senate Intelligence Committee member Tom Cotton, R-Ark., the Chinese military posted its top epidemiologist to the WIV in January.

---The Shanghai laboratory where researchers published the world's first genome sequence of the coronavirus was shut down Jan. 12, according to The South China Morning Post.

---According to U.S. intelligence assessments, including one published by the Department of Homeland Security and reviewed by NBC News, the Chinese government initially covered up the severity of the outbreak. Government officials threatened doctors who warned their colleagues about the virus, weren't candid about human-to-human transmission and still haven't provided virus samples to researchers.

Despite all that, most scientists and researchers believe natural animal-to-human transmission is the most likely scenario.

Peter Daszak, a virus expert who has visited one of the Wuhan labs as part of a U.S.-funded program, said millions of people in China are infected each year by coronaviruses from animals. Most of the infections aren't life-threatening.

"There's just an incredible volume of traffic between wildlife and people," he said.

He added that the WIV rarely worked with live viruses and generally practiced sound safety procedures.

"I've been in hundreds of labs, and I know a good lab when I see one," he said. "These guys are good."

Published in News
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