Pulse Asia research — post-EDSA PH presidents

Pulse Asia research — post-EDSA PH presidents Featured

Lito Monico C. Lorenzana
LML Polettiques
12 September 2024
Comments:DISQUS_COMMENTS
First of a series

RECENTLY, a friend shared with me the latest analysis of Pulse Asia survey data on approval/disapproval ratings of post-1986 Philippine presidents — Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (GMA, 2001-2010), Benigno Aquino III (PNoy, 2010-2016) and Rodrigo Duterte (Digong, 2016-2022). These data gathered over the years are compared with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s (BBM) performance from the time he took office in June 2022 to the present — a span of eight quarters.

These figures are achromatic, but each data point is a reflection of people's perceptions — photographs capturing realities at a point in time. Each has a story to tell and for those who seek to extract some meaning, it is incumbent upon them to dig deeper, giving flesh to the numbers, making them alive. This column will attempt to extrapolate from these data the narrative behind each and extricate lessons to be learned, from presidential track records, their ups and downs, their triumphs and failures and nuances, hopefully as a guide to the current administration of BBM to where it should go — as we want it to succeed for the sake of the country and the Filipinos. How the questions were framed by Pulse Asia and asked of the participants of the survey to elicit desired responses may be subject to the biases of both. Additionally, this column takes the liberty of writing into the surveys supplementary information and nuances gleaned from current events and news headlines. Interpreting the data points and weaving them into a coherent narrative is the primary responsibility of this column.

What survey suggests

BBM assumed office in June of 2022 with a high approval rating. His 84 percent is a figure many politicians will die for. But for many of the older generation who lived through the dark days of martial law, when the incumbent's father reigned supreme, it was a shock. But the data speaks for itself indicating the attrition of the numbers of the denizens of the old regime prior to 1986. After four decades since the lamented EDSA People Power Revolution, the dramatis personae and the hordes of ordinary citizen-participants are gone. The rest are now in the minority. The current Pulse Asia data reflects a new reality. The Marcoses are back!

Thus, the Pulse Asia survey becomes more interesting and relevant when focused on both Duterte and BBM. Consider the following: both had high approval ratings when they first burst into the Philippine political scene over the political carcasses of their opponents: Mar Roxas in 2016 and Vice President Leni Robredo in 2022 — both remnants of the "Yellow Army." Duterte had a commanding 86 percent and BBM 84 percent ratings.

But the dormant seeds of a political maelstrom started to germinate then. While BBM garnered 58.77 percent of the vote — the first majority president since the fifth republic in 1986 — his running mate Sara Duterte, the Digong's daughter, garnered 61.53 percent more votes than BBM. The Digong has always maintained that daughter Sara, who was then more popular, should have run as president and not BBM. From the outset, Duterte has always harbored a quiescent disdain for the Marcoses, particularly BBM, whom he accused of being "bangag," a vituperative appellation for an illegal drug user.

To put things in perspective, the analysis compares Duterte's figures with BBM's in the intervening similar number of months — Duterte's first two years of equivalent eight quarters in 2016. The relevancy of such a comparison rests on several factors. Duterte was BBM's immediate predecessor and the issues, although with some dissimilarities, overlap the two administrations.

On world affairs, the Ukraine war, the Palestine conflict, Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran and even EDCA and our relations with America — these are somewhat irrelevant, not even reflected in the surveys. But closer to home, China's bullying over our "West Philippine Seas" (WPS) and our fishermen's plight on being barred from their traditional fishing grounds are issues BBM failed to address to the satisfaction of the clientele — the Filipino. Add to this his inability to face squarely microeconomic problems, NFA stock and rice shortages, inflation and high prices.

Instead, BBM went off-tangent, allowing his cohorts in the Lower House, headed by his cousin, Speaker Martin Romualdez, to embark on charter change (Cha-cha) under the guise of constitutional economic amendments through people's initiative. The speaker — more a Romualdez than a Marcos — fancies himself as the Marcos heir-apparent in a collision course with Duterte's own heiress, VP Sara. A shift in government to a parliamentary system gives Martin an edge to head the next administration as prime minister — a fool's errand.

Comparative to the first eight quarters in 2016 and 2022, the Deegong never went down below an 80 percent approval rating. BBM's was a precipitous drop to a dismal 53 percent, with his disapproval soaring from 13 percent to 29 percent. What gives?

Politics permeating survey results

The thesis of this column in the comparative analysis of the Pulse Asia data is that politics and political rivalry are the primary root of BBM's current difficulties. The economy and other factors besetting government are mere peripherals.

It was clear from the very start of BBM's regime that the rehabilitation of his father's image as a Philippine dictator during his martial law regime was his primordial objective. The resurrection of the ghost of Ferdinand E. Marcos Sr. (Macoy), therefore requires the negation of all subsequent post-Macoy governments from President Cory Aquino, his nemesis, through General Ramos, a cousin, to GMA, PNoy and especially to the regime of President Duterte, whose daughter, Sara, helped propel him to the presidency, and whom he felt compelled to denigrate to push through his family's agenda. It is worthwhile to be reminded, too, that Sara's grandfather, Davao's former governor Vicente Duterte, was a former Cabinet member of the elder Marcos, establishing their political pedigrees. The Duterte political dynasty, composed of Sara's brothers in elective positions, have professed regret over the Deegong allowing the burial of Makoy on hallowed ground — the Libingan ng mga Bayani — even calling for Marcos Jr.'s resignation as president.

In the intervening months, issues and crises have cropped up, which now involved even the first lady, Liza Araneta-Marcos, an accomplished lawyer and academic who emerged from the shadows of the Marcos-Romualdez clan and projected an image of an arrogant and powerful consort but an unelected power wielder herself — a stark contrast to a perceived weak and docile and unlettered husband. These are all reflected in the Pulse Asia survey suggesting that BBM is leading the country in the wrong direction.

Open split between political dynasties

Captured in the Pulse Asia surveys are just the nuances of the final break in what was once regarded as a "UniTeam-Dream Team" represented by the President and his vice president. I quote excerpts from my column of Aug. 21, 2024: "...what precipitated the breakup of the 2022 Marcos-Duterte coalition was the ultimate question: Whose dynasty dominates and holds political power post-2028 and beyond? This necessitated the defanging of rival heiress and president-in-waiting VP Sara, rendering her castrated as VP and education secretary."

To be continued000
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