Last of two parts

LAST week's column ended with a rhetorical question: which political dynasty will dominate Philippine politics post-2028 upon the Marcos-Duterte coalition breakup? This conundrum is tangential to the intent of Pulse Asia, per se, but the data points continue to give out vignettes forming an integral part of this narrative.

Focus will now shift to the comparative analysis of the surveys on President Marcos Jr., former president Duterte and their surrogates; Vice President Sara Duterte, scion of the Duterte clan and House Speaker Martin Romualdez, self-proclaimed heir to the Marcoses — while BBM and Imee's children are politically ripening. These are the two contemporary political dynasties competing for dominance in this coming midterm elections toward the presidential contest that will spell the dominance of either in 2028 or beyond.

Pulse Asia can't reflect the consequences of the clash between BBM and Sara. Their third quarter survey, however, could suggest the same. But to refresh our memories, the actual breakup may have occurred with the surging popularity of VP Sara, buoyed up by the still-popular Duterte, putting the Marcos dynasty in jeopardy. BBM then allowed the International Criminal Court (ICC) to resume the investigation of the Deegong's drug wars and human rights violations — a virtual Damocles sword. When he was president, Duterte cut ties with the ICC, curtailing its ability to pursue an investigation of the extrajudicial killings.

In retaliation, a series of prayer rallies was initiated by a vengeful ex-president, sponsored by Quiboloy, the "Appointed Son of God" who gave Duterte a platform, SMNI, to attack BBM. Excerpts from my column quoted her: "There was no mincing of words. Pastor Apollo Quiboloy, Appointed Son of God (ASOG), on Feb. 21, 2024, called for... President BBM (and first lady Liza) and Speaker Martin Romualdez to step down from your posts. You are no longer worthy to be our trusted leaders. These echoed Davao Mayor 'Baste' Duterte's demands for BBM to resign in a prayer rally in Davao last January 28. And in an expected ad hominem by the Duterte himself, he described BBM as 'basag' (a drug addict)!?" ("Clash of dynasties," TMT, June 3, 2024)

Martin Romualdez — Cardinal Richelieu

Enter the billionaire and ambitious Speaker Martin — more of a Romualdez than a Marcos — who holds a grudge against Quiboloy's SMNI for exposing his P1.8 billion travel allowances and his indiscretions in the lower house, imperiling his presidential ambitions. SMNI's franchise subsequently was suspended — shades of ABS-CBN's gutting by the Deegong during his watch.

But Martin is a character of his own. With his initial moves, using the prestige of the Marcoses, he assumed the role of the Marcos couple's Cardinal Richelieu, serving the family while consolidating his own supremacy at the powerful lower house of Congress — biding his time, manipulating the weak president with perhaps the tentative but tacit acquiescence of the consort. But unlike the French Cardinal, the speaker wanted it all.

In the Pulse Asia survey, mentioned in my column last week, BBM's approval rating collapsed to 53 percent from a high of 84 percent, while Duterte's equivalent rating in his first two quarters in 2016 even went up to 88 percent. But the more relevant figures to ponder upon are those of the surrogates' current trust ratings: VP Sara's was a high of 69 percent while that of Speaker Martin, a dismal 35 percent! To the Marcos heir-apparent, this was unconscionable.

VP Sara's demolition

Thus, the rival heiress' head's ongoing decapitation. It started with Marcos and the House stripping VP Sara of her discretionary funds as education secretary and later the budget of the Office of the Vice President. As I wrote in the same column, "Sara's desire to assume a high-profile role in BBM's Cabinet as secretary of defense was not granted. The education portfolio was a poor substitute. And to add salt to the wound, Sara's VP office was stripped of P500 million and DepEd of P150 million in confidential intelligence funds (CIF).

"Intelligence funds" are nebulous purposed confidential funds originally for the use of surveillance by police and defense agencies for security purposes. The practice of allocating these funds to civilian agencies and favored local government units (LGU) has skirted the guidelines, disbursements and liquidation of the same as they are exempted from the Commission on Audit's (CoA) standard procedures. More often than not, they are unaudited and may be deemed unconstitutional. These lucrative funds have been used anomalously as campaign funds bloating the personal coffers of powerful politicians, mayors/governors and agency heads. BBM's own office (OP) was allocated P4.5 billion — half of the P10.64 billion CIF in the 2024 budget."

It did not help that during the current 2025 congressional budget hearing, the beleaguered Sara's display of belligerence and arrogance, mimicking a now toothless Duterte patron — did not sit well with the committee members. It pissed off both allies and detractors — doubtless to the glee of the speaker's cohorts.

With Richelieu in the saddle, the relentless degrading of Sara and the Dutertes continues. Now in the current hearings of both houses are the exposition of new evidence from Davao prison inmates of the Deegong's alleged elimination of convicted Chinese drug lords. A patchwork of cases and innuendoes stitched in a quilt of old and new are being revived through the grandstanding congressional hearings, not the proper courts; the resuscitation of the Pharmally anomalies of officials around the presidential orbit that could involve the Deegong himself; tying this up with POGO that began to proliferate during the Duterte administration. All these meant to engulf the Dutertes now that the dynasty head was no longer in power.

Richelieu's ascendancy

This brings us to the question of a possible reversal of roles in the political power structure of government. The resident Malacañang couple has recently become vulnerable with the exposé of the use of illegal drugs in "polvoron" parties. ("The spy and the paramour," TMT, Aug. 14, 2024)

The cognoscenti in the highest echelons of government, including the Marites of the social media, have begun to speculate that the first couple's vulnerability plays into the hands of Speaker Martin, who may now morph into a 'Svengali' coming into his own — and holds the power to pursue investigations of 'polvoron' usage and proliferation even in the hallowed halls of Malacañang. The alliance of the speaker and the couple, particularly the powerful consort, may be undergoing some sort of mutation. One cannot help but hazard a guess that we may be confronted with the classical situation of the "tail wagging the dog." Who now controls the levers of power in this government?

Until Pulse Asia frames these questions and injects the same into the consciousness of the Filipinos as part of the process of educating them about their plight — the data points can only reveal nuances where a tale can be woven subject to the biases of those that interpret the same. This column awaits the findings of the research for the third quarter of this year and beyond.

Meanwhile, we assume full responsibility for the conclusions and speculations arrived at from these data points.