Before the aftermath and the rise of a hegemon Prison Planet.com

Before the aftermath and the rise of a hegemon Featured

LITO MONICO C. LORENZANA
LML Polettiques
15 April 2020
Comments:DISQUS_COMMENTS
GOING by all the publications, dialectics and analyses by doomsayers in social media, the pronouncements of the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, this column, predictive in one sense, should logically be written only in the year 2021, when the world has seen its way clear through, before the near annihilation of the human race has come to pass.

I will add my voice to the cacophony, not as an alarmist, but as a member of the most vulnerable segment of society that is bearing the pandemic’s brunt — the seniors with “preexisting health conditions.” By definition, the elderly are a repository of numerous illnesses over time. Death is inevitable, the cliché goes. But not this way! I have witnessed the passing of friends, their wives and kin, but I couldn’t pay my last respects as their remains were sent posthaste to the crematoria. Grief transmitted through Facebook, Messenger and Viber is the new kind of normal; as physical distancing precludes wakes and the traditional “lamay,” renewal of old friendships and catching up during such engagements. And no more nine-day novenas of final goodbyes to write finis to the departed’s life as dictated by centuries of tradition. Lockdown and social distancing have prevailed.

Warnings and lessons
Thus, this article portrays a chilling scenario, part of which is even now occurring, given current global dynamics. The period from the fading months of 2019 to the present will cursorily be put in frame, extracting valuable lessons in anticipation of another resurgence of this pandemic.

Early November 2019, the virus out of the exotic palates of Wuhan, China jumped from animal to humans and spread imperceptibly at first. China controling the narrative now stands accused of keeping this under wraps, wasting precious time. Thousands of lives could have been saved had China been more upfront. Only by January 9 was the first Chinese death reported. Lockdown was enforced in Wuhan by January 23 and the other Chinese cities thereafter. South Korea followed suit on February 23. By then, 46 countries were already reporting cases of contagion, and Italy and Spain were about to be ravaged.

The United States, whom many countries look up to for leadership, has irresponsibly abandoned this role and relinquished its ascendancy. It may be recalled that in 2015, the Republican former president George Bush predicted this exact type of pandemic cautioning preparedness. Then outgoing president Barack Obama 2nd briefed incoming president Donald Trump on a bureaucracy of quick response experts, which the latter subsequently dismantled. But, now a month after the Wuhan lockdown, Trump trivialized the contagion asserting it “…is very well under control in the US…and when you have 15 people [infected], within a couple of days [it] goes down to zero…” Ian Johnson a writer based in Beijing succinctly stated “China bought the West time. The West squandered it.” America most definitely did.

Only by March 19 and 20 did the states of California and New York declare their own version of a quarantine: “Stay at home” and “Shelter in place,” respectively. But still, Trump refused to call for a nationwide lockdown, leaving the decision to each of the states, all of which were seeing the early stages of contagion. The prognosis when this is over is 60,000 to 240,000 Americans dead.

To date, there is no known cure. The best scientists and even the credible person with the money to fund the research, Bill Gates, thinks that the vaccine against this virus will be developed is within a year to 18 months. Those hyping in social media that magical concoctions are available now are all fake news peddling false hopes. Meantime, we hope that the virus will not mutate to infect the young and the rest of the adult population. If it does, millions will die. The world’s health-care system will be overburdened and will collapse. Most probably, the proverbial “last country standing” will be China. One who giveth us the virus — and who may not taketh it away!

End of American century
At the outset, Trump declared pompously that the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) was tantamount to war. And he fancied himself a wartime president. Indeed, this was a worldwide conflict in which one protagonist dictated the frontlines, killing hundreds of thousands, maybe millions, without firing a single shot. Shades of Sun Tzu. No armada of ships; no bombers or stealth fighter planes; not even armies in the field of battle; and nuclear arsenals and missiles could not be deployed. All are useless before an unseen enemy. And the criminally incompetent wartime president is utterly clueless, presaging perhaps the end of American hegemony.

Historians have always maintained that empires fall, brought down by a culmination of centuries of the rot within. Thus, Rome’s downfall in 467 AD by the sacking of the city was inevitable. Future historians could draw some parallels not in the lingering decay of American society per se but due in part to one megalomaniac wartime president unable to use the full might of a great country, allowing the decimation of its people by his sheer ignorance, supported by an equally oblivious base and an intimidated but loyal political cabal. A Nero fiddling while Rome burned.

Enter the dragon
China, the totalitarian state, is ascendant which begs the question. Was she responsible for the virus from Wuhan? Was there collusion with the WHO to declare this pandemic very late? No matter. The wherewithal the world depends on to fight the virus now is stamped “Made in China.” As America and the world are ravaged, they must look toward China for their immediate needs; personal protective equipment, ventilators and all other medical supplies, which their own industries cannot produce on time. China obliges and ships to 100 other countries – establishing its new role as the world’s benefactor.

America’s global preeminence has always depended not only on its resources and might of arms, but on the legitimacy of its democratic domestic governance and institutions, however flawed, and its collective will to assume world leadership based on “right is might.” This whole sordid affair has exposed the weaknesses of America’s democratic system, highly dependent on an illiterate, charismatic but domineering leader’s skewed world view and the acquiescence of an intimidated political leadership ceding to him in essence, these cherished ideals.

The America of the post-World War 2 era is fading. The US instituted the Marshall Plan reconstructing Europe, establishing its imprimatur on the post-world war geopolitics. China could now be implementing its own version. Its Belt and Road Initiative strategy, encircling the globe with its economic tentacles has found its exclamation mark with Covid- 19.

Thucydides trap
Harvard’s Graham Allison’s book Destined for War expounded on the “Thucydides trap” — that “it was the rise of Athens and the fear that this installed in Sparta that made war inevitable.” Taking off from this postulate, China, the rising power, threatens to displace the ruling power, the US, in a war that is likely but not inevitable.

In the current context, China is not at war with America. The whole world is at war against one enemy, Covid-19, with nary a single missile launched. When the smoke clears, China emerges triumphant.000
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