Last of 3 parts

THE last few columns were a play on the outcomes of the Ukraine war, suggesting alternative endings to how the conflict unfolds. The first is that Russia wins. Ukraine is destroyed, and Russia occupies the country, installing a puppet government. The second possibility is that NATO and Ukraine get the upper hand, stop Putin dead in his tracks, and perhaps arrive at a negotiated settlement in the Donbass region and the Crimea. The third alternative could either be a prolonged war with no clear winner among the proxies except the continued devastation of Ukraine, or the war escalates into a much wider conflict, resulting in greater instability and violence and perhaps even the unthinkable consequences of the deployment of battlefield nuclear weapons. This last one may not happen because it couldn't, but because all sides are only too aware of the consequences of mutually assured destruction (MAD). 

Russia wins

This will usher in the resurgence of Russia's position as a major global power with the self-fulfilling prediction by the neocons about Putin's imperial ambitions to revive the old USSR. With close ties with China, both will challenge the dominance of America as a counterbalancing force in a multipolar world order.

Putin thus regains his image as a strongman after the West has been taunting him as weak after the Prigozhin affair. This will reestablish his preeminence along with his Kremlin cabal, giving him carte blanche to redo the world's second-biggest authoritarian structure.

The immediate effect in Eastern Europe is to induce a sense of anxiety among the countries it shares borders with, prompting them to reexamine their relationship with NATO against the renaissance of the Eastern European hegemon.

NATO's touted umbrella, a guarantee to defend non-nuclear allied states, by the nuclear-capable members pouring in conventional logistic and war material short of boots on the ground yet unable to stave off Ukraine's defeat, may no longer be reassuring. These border countries, particularly the Balkan states and Poland, Norway and Finland, full NATO members, may have to rethink their existing protocols. In any case, Russia could wreak havoc with some of these former Warsaw Pact allies and may dissuade those with NATO membership aspirations — Sweden, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Georgia — to back out of NATO and the EU.

From the standpoint of Russia's gaining control of its economy, this could impact energy supplies and agricultural products. Russia's oil fields feed Europe through pipelines passing through Ukraine. And as Europe's breadbasket, imports of wheat, corn, animal and vegetable fats, sunflower seed oil, and cereals are critical to their economies. European imports from Ukraine alone were valued at $29 billion in 2022. Russia's revived role in Europe alters the power dynamics and may drive a wedge between the US allies.

US-NATO-Ukraine wins

There are permutations in the event that Russia doesn't overrun Ukraine in the next couple of months, retreats (unlikely) and goes into a negotiated settlement (likely). The Kremlin cabal will most likely topple Putin, but the replacements are at present unknown and may prove even more unpredictable and volatile than Putin, a known quantity. Or it may not. In any event, this scenario will strengthen the NATO alliance by projecting its clout in Eastern Europe and a strong perception of its relevance in a multipolar world. It would signal that the international community is able and willing to stand up to violations of sovereignty and territorial integrity — this, of course, from the standpoint of the West.

This could further isolate Russia from the family of nations, making it a pariah. The Western alliance would be a real deterrent to future Russian aggression, weakening its influence and standing, limiting its ability to assert its interests in Eastern Europe, and driving it further into the arms of China — unless America manages its foreign policy well and gets the new Russian regime into its fold. Overall, this will contribute to greater stability in Eastern Europe, enticing the other former Warsaw Pact countries to join NATO and the EU and perhaps discouraging them from any military adventurism against their neighbors.

Whatever the outcomes in Ukraine

The Ukraine war does not have a direct impact on US-China relations per se but has broader implications for geopolitics, indirectly affecting the dynamics between the two hegemons. China, in some sense, supports the Russian side but has refused to send in any war materiel — except for encouragement and moral support — hardly critical logistics during wartime.

But observant China must be calculating the risk involved in a parallel concern China has with Taiwan — in case of another proxy fight. China must have studied well the nuances of the strategy and tactics of a US-led war. China may conclude that America may be reluctant to go all-out in Ukraine for fear of widening the conflict with Russia — and perhaps in the same vein, America will not risk its boys in defending Taiwan if China makes its move. Biden's confession of America running out of ammo and critical war materiel suggests America's unpreparedness. China has long built its arsenal for any eventuality. America apparently did not. It is consumed with its internal politics and its society's divisions — fruits of a libertarian-democratic society — unlike an authoritarian one, untrammeled by what the Chinese populace wants but what the Communist Party dictates.

China the victor presumptive

A prolonged war and a stalemate work in China's favor, gloating at NATO's bleeding, exposing to the world its inutility. This distraction in the Eastern European theater leaves China bolstering its moves in the Indo-Pacific region and Africa, where it continues to make inroads with its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

On the other hand, Russia's or NATO's victory in Ukraine may not be at all negative for China. Outcomes could enhance China's position. I draw heavily from Dr. Sari Arho Havrén (associate fellow and specialist in China's foreign relations — This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it." style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.). And I quote:

"China sees Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine through the lens of great power competition between itself and the US ... Europe seems to misunderstand — or disregard — how Beijing sees the war and its geostrategic position, including its view that the EU and its member states form the weak link in the trans-Atlantic alliance."

In a unipolar world where America is the lone hegemon and China is still on the geopolitical fringes, America's dominance has always been stifling to its own drive to global power. As the emerging hegemon, it is intent on abrogating the old order established by America, which did well for itself in a unipolar world. In a multipolar world order, China wants its own model of international relations, and after the success of Deng Xiaoping in adopting the concept of the market economy, it also seeks to redefine democracy, one shaped by the Chinese Communist Party that is acceptable to the rest of the world or at least within China's sphere. To echo Dr. Havrén, China needs to fashion an international order aimed at structuring the world and making it safe for China.

And for the world. And in the process, we hope, not precipitate Cold War 2.0.